Warning from Harvard study on WMD terror (UPDATED)

A new research paper by a retired Central Intelligence Agency officer assesses years of work by Al Qaeda terrorists to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and to devise the deadliest ways to put them to use.

The study, published last month, is by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government. Mowatt-Larssen retired last year after a career including service as Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, and before that 23 years as a CIA intelligence officer in various domestic and international posts.

UPDATE: The research paper has prompted some sharp criticism. See below.

Mowatt-Larssen provides a detailed chronology of relentless efforts by Al Qaeda from 1988 to 2003 to get and use chemical and biological weapons including ricin and anthrax, and, most worrying, nuclear weapons. Most of the details he cites have been reported before, but Mowatt-Larssen assembles the evidence in a fashion that leaves little doubt that Al Qaeda operatives would not hesitate to launch attacks that could kill tens or even hundreds of thousands of Americans if they could pull off such an attack.

Yet the report notes that no such attack has taken place in recent years. He leaves the question hanging whether that is because of effective counter-terrorism or some tactical decision by Al Qaeda to avoid attacks that fall short of the devastating impact of the 9/11 attacks. The title of the paper is suggestive:  "Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality?

Professor Graham Allison, the head of the Belfer Center and a nationally respected expert on nuclear weapons and terrorism, makes clear in an introduction that he has no doubt that the threat is real. He notes that President Obama, like President Bush before him, has said often that the threat of nuclear terrorism is the most serious threat facing the United States. "Organizing a coherent strategy to prevent this nightmare from occurring begins with a clear recognition that WMD terrorism is a real and imminent threat."

Responding to Mowatt-Larssen's paper, two prominent analysts have issued scathing critiques.

Jason Sigger at the Armchair Generalist blog answers: "Actually, there's a lot of doubt that Al Qaeda would have the talent, opportunity, and skills to develop NBC weapons into a capability that would cause any level of mass casualties...."

Sigger reviews the incidents that Mowatt-Larssen recounts, and concludes: "we have a collection of weak evidence of intent without any feasible capability and zero WMD incidents - over a period of fifteen years, when AQ was at the top of their game, they could not develop even a crude CBRN hazard, let alone a WMD capability. Mowatt-Larsen doesn't attempt to answer the obvious question - why didn't AQ develop this capability by now? "

George Smith, writing on GlobalSecurity.org, says Mowatt-Larssen overstated several threats, not least the 2003 London alleged ricin incident, which Smith has followed closely for several years. Smith says Mowatt-Larssen repeats a number of erroneous charges from the case that were later publicly declared to be groundless.

"The disaster that was the London ricin trial, and the truths which emerged from it, soured a great many in the United Kingdom on the statements of its ally, the United States. The US government had pressed hard with talk about the ricin ring and al Qaeda, as it had about many things subsequently proven to be wrong with regards to terrorism and the war in Iraq. It is safe to say that it contributed to the belief among many there that the US government was full of it, something not altogether true, but now seen as a reasonable opinion, "Smith writes.

"It's certainly a shame to read in 2010 the same really old shabby cant about something one knows well, delivered by someone formerly with the CIA, given print space because of reasons having to do with bowing to arguments from authority."