And the (down)beat goes on

The National Association of Realtors reported today that June home sales fell nearly 4 percent from May and are down more than 11 percent from a year ago. It's the lowest sales level since late 2002. But the news received a glass-half-full analysis from the Realtors group, which highlighted a 0.3 percent increase in the national median home price to $230,100 from $229,300 in June 2006.

Here's what senior economist Lawrence Yun said in the release: "Home buyers have been getting mixed signals about the housing market, which is causing some of them to hesitate. Although general buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers, it appears some buyers are looking for more signs of stability before they have enough confidence to make an offer.”

Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, NY, didn't see mixed signals at all. In a note to clients, he wrote: "Housing is contracting at an accelerating pace, taking out with a vengeance the brief stabilization at the turn of the year, when mild weather and plunging gas prices supported activity. Now, inventory is huge and prices are falling - the 0.3% y/y June rise is irrelevant - and housing is bust."