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How bad is bad?

Posted by Kimberly Blanton August 27, 2007 11:07 AM

Readers frequently complain about the bad-news stories that I've written over the past year about the Massachusetts' housing market as it has fallen from its all-time highs.

They're right to some extent. The market is down, but the reality is more complex than a single sales or price figure.

For one thing, the monthly reports from The Warren Group and the Massachusetts Association of Realtors for the entire state obscure variations among various counties and in the Boston metropolitan area. For example, the median price in Middlesex County dropped just 1.5 percent in July, while Worcester County's price was off 7.4 percent.

And condominiums saw price gains in downtown Boston during the second quarter, according to Listing Information Network, which tracks only the core downtown neighborhoods in a separate report.

The downtown rebound amid a national downturn is something of a mystery but certainly can be partly explained by the growing popularity of downtown living among the well-to-do. Developers have rushed in to fill that need with luxury condos.

Also, as I've noted in several articles, Massachusetts' housing decline started earlier, and some of the dire reports on the US housing market may not apply. If you're a Massachusetts homeowner or trying to sell, a 4.6 percent price drop is hardly good news. But it's a lot worse in other housing markets. The limited supply of housing in the Boston area tends to put a floor on prices, analysts say.

Finally, readers and agents complain that critical coverage causes the market's decline. While journalists report what has already happened -- July sales aren't written about until August -- we no doubt have some impact.

Economists would respond that information is the grease that keeps the markets humming efficiently.


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