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The Buddha

Email|Link|Comments (1) Posted by Kimberly Blanton October 17, 2007 01:08 PM

Consulting the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association about the housing market is a lot like going to the Buddha for the keys to enlightenment.

The MBA's real estate buddha, Doug Duncan, has some bad news: No turnaround before the end of 2008. Duncan, in a preview yesterday for the press of his forecast released today, said he expects US investment in residential real estate to start increasing again in the third quarter of 2008.

But there may be a lag before house prices nationwide start rising. Duncan forecast prices dropping 2 percent to 4 percent annually in 2007 and again in 2008.

"Housing's drag" on the economy "will probably dissipate late in the third quarter of 2008," he said. "We have a ways to go."

US mortgage sales tell the story dramatically: This year, Duncan expects total purchase mortgages to be about $1.18 trillion -- about 15 percent less than 2006. In 2008, volume is expected to drop another 15 percent to the lowest since 2000.

Duncan's forecasts are national, and he wouldn't say much about Massachusetts' housing market. But no- or low-population growth is a big factor locally, he said.

"I would not look to Boston to be a big growth market" in coming years, he said.

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1 comments so far...

Hi Kim,

Based on this information, if you have a property that you need to sell in order to buy another property - should you do it now? We are having a tough time wondering if we should buy a bigger place or stay where we are at. We know we will need to move in about 2 years regardless due to a growing family and we stumbled across something we really like - but are not sure if we would be making a losing investment to buy now, I'm not sure if the value is there now.

Also, could you list the most attractive features to Boston buyers, things that help sell a place and what kind of value they add - such as parking, new construction, # of bedrooms, updated kitchen/baths (what should be done?). Your insight and advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks!!

Posted by Rb October 18, 07 03:49 PM