Case-Shiller: Moderation?
Could the bottom be in sight? The latest results from the S&P/Case-Shiller index show the pace of price declines in the Boston area continued to slow in November, even as the national market accelerated its downward plunge.
To be clear, we're not talking about a recovery. The price index dropped 3 percent in the Boston area compared to November 2006. It is the 20th consecutive month in which prices declined compared to the same month the previous year. The Boston index has now dropped 8.2 percent from its peak in September 2005.
But here's the flip side:
Look at the percentage declines for each month in 2007, through November, compared to the same month the previous year. The first number is for the Boston market, the second is an aggregate of 20 metropolitan areas.
Month ** Boston ** National
Jan. **** -5.5% **** -0.1%
Feb. **** -4.7% **** -0.8%
Mar. **** -4.9% **** -1.3%
Apr. **** -4.5% **** -2.1%
May **** -4.3% **** -2.8%
June **** -3.7% **** -3.4%
July **** -3.4% **** -3.8%
Aug. **** -3.6% **** -4.3%
Sept. **** -3.2% **** -4.9%
Oct. **** -3.6% **** -6.1%
Nov. **** -3.0% **** -7.7%
The decline began here earlier than it did in most markets, so perhaps Boston is continuing to lead the trend and moderation is ahead for other markets, too. Alternatively, perhaps Boston is simply in better shape than other markets, perhaps because the economy is better, perhaps because there is more demand for each available home.
What are your thoughts on the data?
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