The News Roundup
The housing market had quite a Thursday. First the good news:
Massachusetts residents can borrow significantly more money at low interest rates, to buy homes or to refinance, after the federal government broadened its loan guarantee program. The Federal Housing Administration guarantees to repay lenders if borrowers don't, allowing banks to loan money at lower interest rates. The maximum the government will guarantee increased to $523,750 in the Boston area.
One nice thing about FHA loans: You're much more protected against foreclosure. The government forces lenders to help borrowers who fall behind.
An interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal reviews the history of the FHA program, which began during the Great Depression and is now being revived. By several measures this is the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, so perhaps it's appropriate that the government is resorting to measures developed in the 1930s. It's certainly a reminder of just how grave the current situation has become.
Speaking of the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve yesterday reported the astonishing news that Americans now own less of their homes than banks. If a house was worth a dollar, the average American now has 48 cents of equity and 52 cents of mortgage debt. It's the first time total home equity has dipped below 50 percent of the total value of homes since at least 1945.
The immediate reason is that home values are falling. The primary reason is that we like borrowing money.
Other news:
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending sales remain at the second-lowest level since the group started counting in 2001. (The NAR naturally has a nicer way of saying this.)
And the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the pace of foreclosures reached record levels again in the fourth quarter. In Massachusetts, 3.17 percent of outstanding loans are either in foreclosure or the last payment is at least 90 days overdue, which means they're about to be in foreclosure.
Perhaps today will be sunny.







Nobody gets its. I'll say it again. This isnt stagflation. This is deflation. Stocks are down. Home prices are down. Jobs are down, and soon salaries will be down. World confidence in the US dollar is dropping, thus driving up cost of gold and oil. Weak dollar != inflation. The economy right now is a mess, thanks to reckless bank lending, excessive speculation, retiree plans that can never be paid, and excessive US government and city debts. Folks, this is going to hurt. Its too bad that the US every 50-70 years needs to be kicked in the teeth to remember that the good times dont last forever. Inflation is dead, and inflation indexing is a thing of the past. You will not see home values going back up for at least 10-20 years from now, after the US dollar supply has deflated and over-leveraging is ended. The odds that home values reach the ridiculous levels of 2004-2005... Absolute zero. If you want to put off a home sale "until conditions improve", realize that the odds are you will die owning the home.
Binyamin, the raising of "conforming" limits hardly guarantees low interest rates for jumbo loans. The market has already told the agencies in no uncertain terms it will not take these jumbos on the same terms as smaller loans, and in fact they are going to be offered in separate pools. Also, the newly announced guidelines are refreshingly strict, so lots of buyers who would have qualified for jumbos in the heydey will not be eligible for one of these.
What's the sound of one hand clapping?
Anyway, in case anyone wants to read the Wall Street Journal without having to pay for an online subscription, they also have it available on their Real Estate Journal website:
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20080307-hagerty.html
It's really a very good and informative piece!
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