Condos doing better than homes

ahhhhh relief...thank you!

You know- the only seriously depressing thing here is the proof that we first time home buyers have quickly been priced out of Southie. How depressing, we should have bought 2 years ago! Clearly- it is the most up and coming neighborhood in Boston.

What real estate writers and pundits fail to understand that sampling skews the statistics. Houses and condos are not the same as stock. A median price can only show a very random sample of sales for a specific period of time. It doesn't tell us if the higher priced houses are selling and, therefore, the sample data is flawed.

Numbers of sales are probably more important in determining strength of a market than the price of the sales.

Uh ... guys .... this is mainly a by-product of the city holding up better than the 'burbs. A higher percentage of homes closer to the city are condos, hence the condo market in the state is "doing better" than the single family market.

By and large, condos in town (or close) are doing OK. Condos in Haverhill or Andover, not so much.

Your outlook on this is all wrong. Condos are not "doing better" because their prices haven't dropped as much. They're arguably doing worse, because the price drops are inevitable and since they are lagging behind SFHs, the condo market is farther away from eventually reaching a stable, healthy level.

This blog's tunnel vision that sees real estate statistics only from the perspective of current "homeowners" is exactly what is wrong with this market. Not everyone owns a home, remember? Most first-time buyers such as myself are either (a) priced out of the market, or (b) paying attention to the market and aware that there are no factors in place to slow the drop in prices anytime soon. Without first-timers entering the market, no current owners can upsell and progress in their dreams.

And by the way, barely treading water on top of massive, bloated mortgage for more than the value of your home that you have no hope of ever paying off, regardless of what bizarre exotic mortgage you concoct, is NOT homeownership. It just means that you are part of the problem, standing in the way of the market correction and making things worse for everyone in the long run.

Condo sales are collapsing.

From the Warren release:

Condo sales fell 35.6 percent in March, from 2,269 to 1,462. First quarter sales were down 32.6 percent, from 5,692 to 3,835.

1.Since you have access to all the data Marcus, why not post the number of sales as a percentage of total units on the market, for recent and past 3 month time periods. A smaller number sold because there are fewer on the market.

2. First time buyers need to look for reasonably priced homes, those that are priced below the median, and also need to consider less expensive areas. Most of us did not purchase the house of our dreams until we had built some equity buying and selling our initial homes. In this recession environment, the above data emphasize the need to choose location carefully.

I'm sorry if I offended you with my ability to click on the link in the post and read the press release.

A smaller number sold because there are fewer on the market.

This blog is always good for a spot of levity.

Real Estate is for losers. They are putting up so many condo's these days you'll be lucky to sell your home at all. If a former single family lot or empty lot is converted to 10 condo's what does that do to your homes value ?

"The power of the press is very great, but not so great as the power of suppress."

Im not surprised.

Most single family homes in MA are behind on maintenance and updates. Most need exterior repairs, and internal updates (kitchens, baths, etc). There are many older split-levels and capes that are honestly cramped. Many of these homes are unattractive and will chew up your weekend working on them, or chew up your savings.

On the other hand, many condos are newer, and there are many brand new ones that need no work.

I love my home, but honestly its a labor of love. Too many homeowners simply let their homes go, and then expect a small fortune when selling them.

30 years from now, all of these condos will have the same problems that those masses of cramped old homes in Massachusetts have. They will be outdated and behind the curve on amenities.

Location, location, location.

Obviously, condos in the South End and Back Bay will fall much less than condo's in Haverhill. I think all real estate will fall, but condo's in prime areas will be less affected by the housing downturn. Condo's and houses in the 'burbs will be hit the hardest. Between $4 gas and constant gridlock, the 'burbs are toast.

As a first time buyer (who owned a house in Columbus, Ohio 4 years ago), I am not going to be buying around here anytime soon. Right now, I am priced out of the market (like many others), thanks to the banks who are punishing me for giving loans out to people who didn't deserve them years ago. I have ZERO debt, excellent credit (740), and only a car payment. I earn above the median income for metro Boston, and yet I cannot find affordable housing without becoming completely house poor. As a single guy who wants to enjoy life, without living in squallor just to be close to Boston, I say "no thanks". All of my single friends feel the same way, and all of my married friends want the picket fence, and therefore are moving an hour away to have it. House prices in Boston are ridiculous. Heres to hoping the market here continues to suck.

"30 years from now, all of these condos will have the same problems that those masses of cramped old homes in Massachusetts have. They will be outdated and behind the curve on amenities."

30 years from now most of the residents from these condos would probably have moved on after having built equity. In 30 years they would need work, unless the owners maintained them very well.

I agree with Mike, fundamentals like location and improving or declining neighborhood trends are what will matter in the mid-term (3-5 years).

Other thoughts:
First time home buyer is a couple with no kids who work or go to grad school in the city. Closeness to job/school means a shorter commute (likely on the T), which is better lifestyle-wise, and less gas purchased. They don't care about a yard.

Someone mentioned that there are loads of condos being built, but I don't know, isn't Boston pretty tight with new development?

Also, there's are the micro-considerations too. A neighborhood on the upswing (new coffee shops, other new businesses, new T-station plans, etc.) will fare better in the mid-term.

Condos will appreciate 5-8% across the board this year in MA. That's a fact. By the way, I'm selling one if anyone's interested...

I don't understand why everyone on this board is saying this is a bad time to buy a home in the greater Boston area. Sure, the national housing market seems in the doldrums, but Massachusetts prices don't seem to have come down that much. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is still really low, at 4.1%. It seems like everyone I know is still spending money left and right, even on gasoline and dinners at restaurants. Now they say that we're not in a recession, since the GDP went up during the first quarter.

I am afraid if I don't buy now, I'll never be able to buy. Remember what happened last time? Since 2002, people were talking about a "bubble", yet prices went up for another 3-4 years! I found a home I really like, I think I should buy it! Toughts?

Appreciate 5-8%.... Laughable

Now is a great time to buy.Why?-because rates are low and home prices are down anywhere between 20-30% off there peek.Inventory is high and it is a buyers market.It is much better to buy than to rent.The taxes and mortgage interest are tax deductable.As far as forclosures go whell Massachusetts is on the low end.The state has and is still working on different solutions to help the homeowner avoid forclosure.

Massachusetts beleive it or not is in very good fiscal shape and is growing economically.The budget is in place.A possible tax cut is on the books right now.

If you have credit buy and not rent.

Now is a great time to buy.Why?-because rates are low and home prices are down anywhere between 20-30% off there peek.Inventory is high and it is a buyers market.It is much better to buy than to rent.The taxes and mortgage interest are tax deductable.As far as forclosures go whell Massachusetts is on the low end.The state has and is still working on different solutions to help the homeowner avoid forclosure.

Thanks for that useful and concise summary of 100% demonstrably false MAR propaganda. I think you left out "houses appreciate 10% per year." Otherwise, great job.

I don't know, Marcus, his opinion seems pretty much based on facts, as we know him. I mean, interest IS tax deductible, and I think I read that Congress is going to make is so you don't even have to itemize in order to take the deduction?

All I know is, I'll be relieved when things calm down a bit! It looks as though prices have leveled off, I think we're seeing a bottom. All I know is, every open house I go to seems to be filled with people.

We're looking for a two-bedroom condo in the $300,000 - $400,000 range, and have seen maybe 20-30 in South Boston and Dorchester (Lower Mills, under $300,000). All in good parts of those neighborhoods! I like what I see.

Don't be such a sour puss!

Why are always people say it's a good time to buy? I would like to ask when will not be a good to buy then? During the bubble inflating itself, I believe these people shouted even louder than they are doing today that it's the good time. Do they really believe the RE market is an always-good-time-to-buy market? Isn't that a fairy tale or not?

You know what, if 1) you are planning to stay someplace for a reasonably long time (say 10 years or more), 2) you know what you can afford and stick to that price, and 3) find something you like.....then buy it.

Folks...people are always going to be buying homes....in good or bad times. The sky may be falling for some but it is never going to be falling for everyone. There are always some people that are going to be doing ok and some people hard on thier luck. Welcome to life in a capitalistic market.