Foreclosures plague second-tier cities
More on foreclosures. Some of you requested data by town. While there are endless ways to crunch the numbers, one of the most interesting to me is the foreclosure rate. I've ranked every Massachusetts city and town by the projected number of 2008 foreclosures per 1,000 residential properties. The list excludes towns with fewer than 1,000 residential properties. The data is courtesy of Warren Group.
Basically, these are the cities and towns with the highest concentrations of foreclosures.

A few notes and observations:
Boston already has recorded 306 foreclosures this year, far more than any other Massachusetts city. But it doesn't make this list. Boston ranks 35th, between Framingham and Whitman. The city's problems just aren't that large relative to its size.
Boston's problems are concentrated in Dorchester. If Dorchester was (still) a city, the 171 foreclosures within its limits would top the state list, more than in the rest of Boston combined, and just more than the 166 foreclosures in second-place Worcester.
95 cities and towns have yet to record a foreclosure in 2008. Brookline is the largest, followed by Lexington and Winchester.
The names on the list haven't changed much compared to the 20 towns and cities with the highest foreclosure rates in 2007. Lawrence topped that list, followed by Brockton. Sixteen cities and towns appear on both lists, including every place in the top 10 last year.
The foreclosure rates, however, basically have doubled. In Lawrence last year, there were about 21 foreclosures per 1,000 properties. In Brockton there were about 17 foreclosures.
Do the names on the 2008 list surprise you? How would you describe the pattern?
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Great job putting this list together.!!..the majority towns on here definitely do not surprise me, I think this trend will continue with some of these towns for a couple of years unfortunately
I am curious what the breakdown in Boston neighborhoods is. You mention that Dorchester is the worst, but what about the other neighborhoods? Thanks.
This list does not surpise me at all. All are among the lowest income cities and towns in the state. Those individuals with the smallest financial cushions are more likely to suffer than those with ample financial means who can weather the storm. Since education level runs parallel, on average, ? these residents may also be at greater risk of falling victim to mortgage schemes or failing to understand the potential risks of adjustable rate mortgages.
this trend will continue with some of these towns
The foreclosure explosion is not confined to these towns; they simply suffer the most.
All increases in foreclosures from a given town's historical norms will be felt in that town.
I think readers would like to know the breakdown of foreclosures between fisrt mortgages and those that are foreclosed after a re-finance.
The list does not surprise me. In many of these areas, the foreclosed properties were owned by immigrants and possibly illegal immigrants (some banks and mortgage companies were giving Illegal immigrants mortgages). The problem with this scenario is that immigrants have not been here long enough to have learned of the ups and downs of the US economy. They have only witnessed boom---not bust.
I have noticed that young people have also fallen into the sub-prime trap as well. They haven't lived long enough to have suffered through a recession, especially anything like the late 70s, early 80s or late 80s and early 90s (massive layoffs, skyrocketing inflation, housing crash, etc).
These young people and immigrants had the mistaken belief that property values always go up. They believed the hype or rather, the lies. The combination of ignorance and greed has made the perfect storm.
In the previous thread, I said most foreclosures were in towns that nobody really wanted to live in. I got all kinds of nasty feedback on my comments. My statistics were brought into question.
Where here is the list. Thank you Boston.com for saving me some face.
The sad thing is the mortgage brokers who sold half of these mortgages sleep soundly at night knowing full well (cook the books?) that most of these homeowners should never have gotten a mortgage in the first place.
Some of these comments are hysterical, in a stomach-churning kind of way. "Of course you would expect those people to get into trouble!" Nice people from nice towns would never make financially foolish decisions. Not our kind.
Perhaps I can link to NY Times article today about foreclosures of multimillion dollar properties in tony Greenwich, CT.
http://tinyurl.com/4a57z4
"Some of these comments are hysterical, in a stomach-churning kind of way. "Of course you would expect those people to get into trouble!" Nice people from nice towns would never make financially foolish decisions. Not our kind."
I'm not sure who's comments you're referring to or the specific context, but your quote does not strike me as necessarily elitist. As GB pointed out above, the cities on this list consist in large part of residents who tend to fall on the lower end of the socio-economic scale. This equates to lower incomes, less cushion against economic downturn or a change in personal circumstances, and less education, which (as also noted above) leads to greater susceptibility to predatory lenders, etc.
Just because someone observes that the foreclosures are happening with greater frequency among lower end towns doesn't make that an elitist statement on its face. As you note, foreclosures are happening in "wealthy" towns as well - but at a much less rapid rate.
Middle, again it's all a matter of perspective. To you, the towns on this list are undesirable - to others, they may be perfect. You've mentioned before that you live in Framingham. I'd wager there are quite a few people on this thread who wouldn't neccesarily put Framingham on the top of the desirability list.
Thanks for the great insight and information.
For a good read, check out nationalforeclosureblog.blogspot.com
This isn't spam I just think the blog is good.
I am sorry of my comments appeared elitist to some. This was not the intent and I apologize if I offended anyone. However, it is my opinion that individuals who have experience making complex financial transactions are more likely to understand the implications of their decisions and less likely to be taken advantage of. Level of education is one factor to consider but there are of course many others.
"Wealthy towns" will also have their share of foreclosures, but for different reasons (example: Longwood Towers in Brookline). I feel less sorry for speculative large developers, who should know better, than I do for the hardworking individual who may not receive adequate advice on a single home purchase. The above statistics provide us with numbers but do not tell us of the circumstances of these foreclosures.
For statistical purposes, when a multiunit development is foreclosed upon, is each unit counted separately or is the entire development counted as a single foreclosure?
I dont find these comments elitist. The statistics are clear - the vast majority (both numbers and percentages) or foreclosures are in less affluent towns. You should not have to apologize for pointing out the obvious.
Let's face it, ALOT of people, regardless of education, social standing or income made extremely poor decisions, bought more home then they could afford, didn't fully understand their loan terms etc. which has led to the mess we currently find ourselves.
I have several well educated, intelligent friends who followed the herd and believed that real estate was not a bubble and prices would keep going up. Turned out (as I tried to explain to them years ago) they were wrong.
Markus
Last time i checked Greenwich isn't in MA, that has absolutely nothing to do with the list compiled. I think the FACTS speaks for themselves when discussing the state of MA.
How does this list relate to the other list published in the Globe today: http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/04/20/market_drags ?
The one on the blog is "concentration" of foreclosures and the article lists "percentage". Although the article includes short sales, one would think that the towns on the list should mirror each other, right?
Jim,
The list on the blog measures foreclosures as a share of all residential properties.
The list you referenced measures previously foreclosed properties (and short-sales) as a share of all residential properties for sale.
While some towns appear on both lists, the differences basically result from the difference in denominators -- properties vs. properties for sale.
Marucs -I never said "Nice people from nice towns would never make financially foolish decisions. Not our kind." You should never, ever again shove words into my mouth. I deserve an apology from you for your false accusations.
The statistics speak for themselves - the vast majority of foreclosures, both by numbers and by percentages, are in less addluent towns. That is a fact. In fact I never even suggested an explanation. You are lying by suggesting I did.
It may also be important to point out that the cities on the above list can also be broken down by neighborhood; since they are smaller cities, however, one or two hard-hit neighborhoods will sway the statistics more than they would in Boston (as you mentioned with Dorchester)
With some of the cities on the list, (Lowell, Lynn, Revere), there are some dense working-class areas with high rates of foreclosures, while affluent sections of the city remain less affected. These cities are smaller so the hard-hit neighborhoods make a bigger impact on city-wide rates. I know areas in these smaller cities that are beautiful and well-maintained and have very few foreclosures, yet people still lump it all together in their minds and label the entire city "undesirable" .
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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