Listing prices up slightly
A sign of a mild increase in the strength of the Boston housing market: The average price of homes for sale increased slightly between February and March, according to new data from analytics firm Altos Research. Average list prices in Boston rose 0.5 percent over the previous month, while list prices fell an average of 1.3 percent in a composite of 10 large cities including Boston.
Altos also found a surge in the number of listed properties -- as always happens in the spring -- and a commensurate drop in the age of the average listing.
We talk a lot about all the different ways of measuring the health of a real estate market. The Altos data, which relies on listing prices, is released first, only days after the end of the month. But it also provides the least accurate information. A listing price is just a seller's dream. They may never find a buyer who agrees.
Another few weeks will pass before Warren Group and the Massachusetts Association of Realtors release data on home sales in March. As some of you have noted, that's also an imperfect picture of actual values, because most homes aren't being sold right now.
A few more weeks, and we'll have the Case-Shiller numbers, which try to address that issue, but can't do so completely. And then we'll have the attempts to measure the value of all homes, such as Zillow's new index -- good idea, but the methodology remains controversial.
At any rate, here's the data: Altos says the average listing price in the Boston area in March was $456,958, up from $454,843 in February.
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As has often been pointed out, each of the matrices have their own limitations.
I would add one more index to your list - from Radar Logic.
http://analytics.radarlogic.com/
Unlike the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the Radar Logic matrix includes condominium sales.
The S&P/Case-Shiller looks at resales of the same single-family homes, in order to estimate current values. Radar Logic looks at per square foot prices, which have their own limitations.
The charts look cool. Can't find the data on the site, though.
Does it compare asking prices year over year, or is this yet one more case in which we are asked to declare a bottom because March is, shockingly, not as bad as shorter, colder, and darker February?
Marcus,
That's an important question. Altos started publishing data in November, so we don't have year-over-year figures as yet. Just month-to-month. As you suggest, a year-over-year improvement would be more impressive.
I'm still a bit dubious (to say the least) about listing prices as a sign of market stability. Of seller optimism, yes. But beyond that, it seems it means nothing but that sellers are hopeful as the spring market begins.
The question is will they be as hopeful after it ends. If sellers don't find the spring market living up to their expectations I expect we'll see a big price drop in the summer. Which is what I think will happen
I can only say great things about the guys behind Altos Research. They put out a very valuable and useful product.
The information you are looking for, Marcus, is available on several local real estate agents' websites.
That they pay for.
This is all meaningless. The value of any asset is the top dollar that somebody else is willing to pay for it, that day. Doesnt matter how much, or how little, the asking price is.
I just found an old pair of running sneakers. Abouy 150 miles on them.
Im going to list them on Ebay for 1 million dollars.
Am I now a millionare?
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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