How do you figure value with an unusual house?

A. B.-G. wrote about her market analysis problem in Dorchester in my last entry. Here’s my answer:

There are a lot of problems for me with your question:
1. Why do you trust me more than your agent? Do you have a contract with him/her? Do you know what to expect from him or her? I am a total stranger to you, really. He or she has a stake in getting you a place to buy. His or her behavior should show that getting you a good place at a good price is the goal. Your agent should be looking at the long-term care of his/her business: clients who make good decisions tell their friends. Clients who are hustled into a bad place tell even more of their friends! If your agent is not doing that, you have agent mis-match.
2. I don't work in the city of Boston, so there are a lot of specifics to consider there that I don't know enough about to help you. Questions of local density, distance from the MBTA, style of properties nearby, and level of area gentrification. These all factor into a market analysis along with the time on the market question.

To answer the time question:

Use older comps only if there is nothing like the home you are looking at tomorrow. I find out what the depreciation (or appreciation) rate has been, generally, in the area. Then I find as many samples as close as I can to the one I am studying to see what that rate has been on larger properties. That data informs the figure I will use to adjust for time for the home you want. The type of house, location and style are often important in comparing apples to apple, more important than time, right now. That's how I do it. I hope the appraisers and number-lovers join in with their ideas.

Now about if you are paranoid. I think buying is for some people and not for everyone. You sound like you are on the right track. Of course, you are about to be told that you are not. This is a blog, yes?

If investing in real estate is going to enhance your life by giving you a home you will enjoy, go for it. Make a reasoned investment, stick with it, and be happy. You may lose money, but you get to live there. You may lose money in the stock market, too. Where else are you going to invest, under your mattress? You are entering the decision with your eyes open, with information to help you choose well. Brava! Now go get a good price on it; if it is too much money in relation to your market analysis, wait for another one.

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