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House-peeping season

Posted by Rona Fischman September 15, 2008 03:05 PM

The weather has changed in real estate again. We are in the autumn market. All of a sudden, there are more homes for sale, and more new choices for my buyers. I'm happy with what I have seen this weekend.

Why the change? It happens every year around this time. The autumn market is sort of like a mini-spring market. Buyers generally want to move sometime other than the winter. Most want to move in time to start the school year in a new place; thus we have the spring market. Then, around late July, buyers and sellers get bored with real estate. They want to go on vacation without thinking about houses; thus we have the summer doldrums. Now vacations are over. People are thinking about buying and selling before the winter sets in. Sometime between Veteran’s Day and Thanksgiving, it will probably slow down again. Sales volume is down this year, but the seasonal pattern remains.

Some things that change the seasonal pattern:

Odd weather: the year that it was warm all the way through December, the autumn market kept going almost to Christmas.

National elections sometimes cause a slow autumn season. We’ll see how this one goes.

In 2001, the autumn market did not really start until October. Buyers and sellers were sort of in shock for a few weeks. Then the market moved normally, just a little later.

When did you buy? When is the best time to buy (What time of year? Don’t be a wise-guy and say “1973.”)

What are your predictions for this autumn market? Will the elections change it? Will the economic uncertainty change it? Will the interest rate drip change it?

17 comments so far...
  1. Really? I noticed almost nothing new coming on the market this month.

    Posted by Marcus September 15, 08 05:25 PM
  1. All I noticed were houses trying to seem new to the market by fudging their DOM's.

    Sometimes I see the same houses but a different broker. Mostly the "new" houses belong to sellers in denial who were overpriced last year, took their house off the market and now are asking the same price that they couldn't sell it for last year.

    I guess they are really hoping for that person who just didn't notice how long the house sat last time.

    Posted by just me September 15, 08 06:28 PM
  1. I've been looking for a decent place in the South End for months in the area closer to Back Bay rather than being all the way down by Albany. Its all the same stuff on the market and what little new comes up is not good quality. Aaargh. Very frustrating.

    Posted by Rick September 15, 08 07:30 PM
  1. Marcus, your beloved Cambridge has 104 new listings since 9/1/08.
    27 of the 104 are relists.
    11 of the 104 have accepted offers or are under agreement.

    Just to round out the fact-check, I also looked into Bedford and Needham, since I mentioned those towns.

    Since September 1:

    Bedford: 11 new listings, 4 were relists, 3 have accepted offers or are under agreement.

    Needham: 36 new listings, 11 were relists, 11 have accepted offers or are under agreement. (not the same 11, but there was some overlap.)

    Just me has a point about the relisting. However, I saw some new offerings in the past two weeks. My buyers are pleased and I'm tired!

    Where is there new places to see and where is there the same old tired stuff?

    Posted by Rona September 15, 08 07:44 PM
  1. Marcus: there were a ton of new listings this month ... you're probably searching in the wrong price range. Tons of new stuff in the $700k+ range, even in further out places like Metrowest.

    Posted by Mike September 15, 08 08:44 PM
  1. I do agree that there is a lot of "tired" inventory on the market. However, in the house that we have under agreement, we were able to take advantage of a previous ageement that fell apart in a house in good condition and in a very good negotiating / price position.

    Posted by Rooster September 15, 08 10:12 PM
  1. I agree that there's a general autumn mini - bump. Haven't seen much in Cambridge so far, though I don't question your numbers Rona - I just look at singles and multis.

    Speaking of which, Bellis is back with us....

    The new inventory I've seen in Cambridge all seems to have easy access to Alewife T touted, which consistently makes me giggle, especially when the touting is really over the top.

    Anyone know what the deal is with 6-1/2 Acacia Street? It has some of the most intriguing write up language I've seen, and the pricing history is equally curious.

    Posted by charles September 16, 08 12:13 AM
  1. Some new houses, but what really has my buyers excited are the new prices.

    I've also noticed that new houses to the market are starting to be priced more realistically.

    Posted by rich rosa September 16, 08 07:17 AM
  1. In my area the number of listings has noticeably risen. Some truly seem a little better priced than the many listings that appeared (and went unsold) from the late spring/early summer group.

    Posted by Pat September 16, 08 09:04 AM
  1. Not really much new in Cambridge in the SFH segment, if you only include properties you'd actually want to live in.

    I notice that a lot of buyers and sellers in Cambridge still think that making $300K a year qualifies you to buy a $3 million home. It doesn't.

    Oh, and charles--looks like that place was a foreclosure. Price went from $845 to $600. Sweetheart deal?

    Posted by Marcus September 16, 08 11:16 AM
  1. Marcus - weird language though, with the Earnest money, and the broker going above and beyond to deny any responsibility.

    Price went down to 6s, then back up to ~760 - really weird pricing. I haven't cared enough to do any due diligence - the fact its been sitting for that long implies something, combined with that write up. But I'd love to have my curiousity indulged - Rona?

    I find pricing is more realistic for the spring market, but the markets slipped a fair bit since then. And will start to slip dramatically soon - note the lehman/WaMU/AIG mess, which will spill over, increasing the pressure to bring prices back to fundamental norms.

    So people should be pricing at a discount to what would have traded in the spring, and they aren't doing that.

    Posted by charles September 16, 08 12:06 PM
  1. Charles,
    I just looked in MLS and can't find the house you are talking about 6 1/2 Acacia in Cambridge. Is that right?

    NOTE on 50 Smartest Schools. Boston Magazine finally put Lexington onto the list.

    Posted by Rona September 16, 08 04:00 PM
  1. Wait, so there are currently around 300 homes for sale in Cambridge (50 single-family homes and 250 condominiums) and 100 have come on since 9/1/2008? That's a lot of "new listings." Not "almost nothing new."

    Does anyone else notice that sometimes people on this board make comments that aren't accurate, but then aren't held to them?

    Weird.

    Posted by John K September 16, 08 05:48 PM
  1. How odd, I might have an old page saved. but 6.5 acacia indeed.

    Remarks are below - does that qulify as honesty, or just oddity?

    Remarks
    VERY DESIRABLE HOME IN GREAT LOCATION. SET BACK FROM THE STREET, CLOSE TO THE CHARLES RIVER AND HARVARD. AS IS SALE, SELLER NEVER OCCUPIED THE PROPERTY. NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS FROM BROKER OF ANY KIND. PreApproval letter must accompany offer. Minimum total EM deposit $10,000

    Posted by charles September 16, 08 11:36 PM
  1. John, MLS is freely available on the Web. You can easily see that there are 54 single families for sale in Cambridge, which is about the same number, and mostly the same properties, that were for sale there two months ago. I wrote a post about it, back in the day. And no, there aren't many new.

    Posted by Marcus September 17, 08 12:10 AM
  1. That certainly is a terrific location, but the language does make one's ears stand up - seems like a weird thing to say ... shady, or perhaps an elderly owner who wants to unload what is probably one of several houses with no hassle with quibbling over condition of the property? Guess you'll have to grill the neighbors for info.

    Posted by jchristian September 17, 08 10:07 AM
  1. Assuming I'm one of the people who are being accused of making inaccurate comments, I'd be happy to have anything I've previously posted cited?

    Marcus and I were told we were inaccurate a lot back in the winter when we said things would continue to be ugly, but the evidence doesn't seem to be so strong we were the in-accurate ones.

    I watch Cambridge SFs and multis - like Marcus I haven't seen much new in that segment.

    I do of course agree with Rona that there is such a thing as the fall market, and its a mini-spring. But I also think it will be ugly this year, and be even uglier next year. While a lot of lip service is paid to buyers market, the real definition of a buyers market is buyers having pricing power, and we aren't seeing that yet.

    Rather, we are seeing a minor correction in prices. Some might assume that means things won't actually get that bad here. I think it means the worst is yet to come. And you can call me on it next summer if I'm wrong.

    Posted by charles September 17, 08 11:42 AM
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About boston real estate now
Scott Van Voorhis is a freelance writer who specializes in real estate and business issues.
Rona Fischman is a buyer's agent who provides a look at the local housing scene, from basements to attics.
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