Same old, same old... or what?

Rona - personally, I feel that the problem is not with your choice of topics, but often with those posting to the blog. I agree with you - I enjoy reading this when there are fresh comments/perspectives and a healthy (and mutually respectful) debate. Unfortunately, it seems like the same PEOPLE post the same things over and over again. The "usual responses", to me it seems, are coming from the same few people every day.

I have been following this blog closely, as my husband and I have been renting the past 5 years knowing that we'd be buying sometime in the 2008-2010 timeframe.
We previously owned a condo, then sold/downpriced (I don't know any other way to put it since we got more room for less money) in a cheaper part of the state after having two children in two years. We aren't looking in the Boston market (too expensive for a 1.5 income family at the current prices) so some of the comments aren't of interest to me, but I feel that as a buyer, I need to know what the market's *mood* is, and whether I am buying in Westminster or Weston. An educated consumer is a smart consumer. I'm not looking for a psychic.

I have been reading the real estate blog for a while now. I usually don't post. It does appear that many of the comments are the same thing over and over. Yes we all know the market isn't the same as it was a few years ago. Maybe the sky is falling.

I guess I'm not too worried. I bought a house/home at the end of 2006. The place isn't perfect, it's like a lot of the housing stock around Boston, small, 80 yrs old, but it's in really good shape and very pleasant.

My neighborhood has been in transition since I moved here. My house has gone through a lot of renovations, the house across the street was sold, torn down and a townhouse is almost completed, one up the street was sold and a full gut rehab is underway, and another one was lightly remodeled for new renters. This is all during a down market.

My house is in your area of expertise and from my narrow view of the market, my neighborhood; I'm seeing the same things you are. Houses are selling and after they sell people are putting money into them.

A lot of people comment about how it's cheaper to rent than own. I rented in the Boston area for about 10 years. Some apartments were very nice and some were total dumps. The last one I rented was really nice. Yes it's true it's cheaper to rent than own, but for my family our quality of life is much improved living in our own house rather than renting.

I think if anyone is in a position to buy they should and I think this blog gives some good insight.

I'll confess, I do repeat some cynicism, but when appropriate. When I moved to my 'hood 10 years ago as a renter, condos were $250-$300K, so I started saving my money. Well, the world went zany, and those condos are now $800K; beyond out of my reach. Now, they drop all of 5% and the world gasps and clambers about plans to keep those values high. And I just feel squashed on. I did everything 'right' and I'm shut out now. So as a buyer, it's tough to look on any of this with any hope at all.

So I do whine about that from time to time, but I try to submit constructively when the topic suggests itself. Which brings us back to the blog topic.

Like any blog, it's tough to think of something new to say each day. A lot of blogs are just observation. A lot of it is going to be similar - it depends on what kind of discussion we the commentors can make of it.

I'd like to hear more from you about how the credit crunch might be affecting buyers and sellers, whether or not heating bills and energy efficiency are finally making their way into housing prices, and about what's happening in the neighborhoods I frequent--Dorchester and Roxbury--where prices are plummeting.

I'm also interested in seeing discussions about the math behind the prices in Cambridge, Arlington, JP, parts of Somerville, Brookline, and other urban areas where prices don't seem to be responding to market realities. Are the people living in these areas really making enough to pay the note on $400k, 1600 SF condos? Are there really that many people in the current economy who are secure enough in their incomes to keep those prices there? Or are we finally going to start seeing a decline in those areas?

I'd welcome discussion about people's experiences with short sales and bank owned properties, especially from the buyers point of view. I'd like to hear the pros and cons, what the process was like and if you bought a property was it all worth it?

I'm one of the boring old regular posters. I'd like to think I don't fall in with either group of hysterics, but I can't say I haven't freaked out from time to time. Who doesn't these days?

Rona, I think you provide great value to this blog by providing "on the street" experience. Stacey reports the hard numbers, the state and local numbers, but as they say real estate is local -- neighborhood by neighborhood -- and that's something tougher to find. You can check comps on MLS ok, but if you want to know what's happening in a neighborhood, ask someone who lives and works there.

Personally I sort of agree with Jason, I'd like to see some math behind prices in various towns. I've been calculating and it seems to me price to rent ratios in my town of concern (Somerville) are pretty damn close to historically normal.

But whatever, without predicting the future, keep telling stories from the ground. Cheers.

In response to Jason's comment, I think that the type of economy in the greater Boston area and type of jobs may be contributing. A significant number of people are employed in health care, the major medical centers, and related spinoffs of health care. These jobs have been relatively less affected by the economic downturn. These people remain employed with relatively secure and well paying positions (many are well paid 2 income families) and many can afford to pay the condo prices of Brookline, Somerville, Arlington, and Cambridge.

How about topics regarding the development of affordable housing and the impact of zoning regulations on housing prices?

Jason,

I'm responding to your question about financially qualified buyers. Yes, there are people in the areas you mentioned with very good paying jobs able to carry a note for a $400,000 property. I am an agent and some of my buyer clients are these people. That doesn't mean they are not frugal or careful. They are. Some are waiting to see if prices drop in their chosen areas. Some are waiting for even better loan rates. They figure they can save money while they are waiting.

And some others are buying. We just closed on one in Arlington. Pretty good deal there. Another closing is coming up in a couple of weeks for a bank owned property, priced $130,000 below tax assessment. It needs some work (not $130,000 worth!) but has great bones and is not a devastating disaster like some REO's. That buyer will be in a good place years from now with low payments and a nice house.

No doubt there would be much more gleeful activity if we weren't in a credit crunch but there is some activity.

Rona, always enjoy your comments (although I don't always agree).
One of the things I always am curious about is how many people are really effected by the housing crisis that actually live in their houses.

I realize that the credit crunch will make it tougher to find a mortgage, but, what percentage of people are really having problems? And having problems means not being able to afford your mortgage due to their loan terms. A significant number of people own their home outright, a larger percentage bought within their means and can afford their mortgage unless some major problem befalls them(yes, they may have lost money on the house but they can afford it). Then there are the people that could not afford their mortgage even if we reduce the rate to 5%, 30 year fixed. These people never should have been allowed to get a loan in the first place and should be foreclosed on.

That leaves people who took out inappropriate loans (I/O loans and such) where if their current rate was made 5%, 30 year fixed, they would be able to make it thru. These are the people I would like to see helped. And would like to know what the number of them are.

What are your thoughts on what should be done, if anything, to help each party in the following example:
Four parties bought 4 IDENTICAL houses in a development. Each party paid $500k for their house. The houses are now worth $250k.

Party A paid cash, but leaves them with minimal savings.

Party B took out a $500k IO mortgage, and can only afford a $250k mortgage. They never should have been qualified for a loan.

Party C took out a $500k IO mortgage, and can easily afford it and would qualify to a fixed rate mortgage when they desire (even if they have to pay $250k to only take a $250k mortgage)

Party D put down $250k, and can afford the resulting $250k mortgage.

IMO, it is the redundant responses from a minority of posters that have become the "same old, same old" (as curtly phrased by same old thing).

These posters no longer contribute anything new or useful to the conversation, and a few are increasingly taking on a more strident, imperious, and intolerant tone in their know-it-all posts, which are really only their opinions.

Harshly adamant opinions, insults, and snotty attitudes, are more than just uncalled for and unnecessary. This posting behavior can derail topic discussions, discourage new posters (and differing opinions), and end up forming bullying cliques that drive others away.

I enjoy reading about the personal real estate experiences of others, and I find the comments both interesting and useful. I also like reading about the needs and concerns of folks looking or needing to buy in these challenging times. Updates in the real estate market, and in building, and buying or selling trends, and are also appreciated.

What I don't appreciate is the repetitive barrage of judgmental Chicken Little posts-- often dissing buyers or buying, and the nagging real estate agent bashing. (I am not involved with real estate buying and selling, but I find this extreme stereotyping to be distasteful, unfair, and way over repeated.)

It shouldn't take the human IQ equivalent of a rocket scientist for posters to be respectful and courteous of others. Hang in there, Rona; I look forward to reading your blog, and the contributions of most of the those who post here.

As reported in this very newspaper's Real Estate section just one short month ago, Sept 7th, "Bidding Wars? Price Increases? It's happening!"

I haven't seen any sign of a slow down in my market. Things are humming along just as they have been for the past 6 or 7 years. As poster "GB" above me notes, one of the pillars of the Boston economy is heathcare, as recession-proof an industry as there ever was. Another of our pillars is education, which if anything is booming. Harvard's massive, multi-billion dollar endowment *gained* in value this year, despite all the turmoil in faraway cities like London and New York.

It's all about jobs jobs jobs. I don't know anyone who is unemployed. Do you? Things seem just fine from where I'm sitting!

Personally, I think the blog has two functions: education and entertainment. Rona and some of the more nuanced posts provide the education. Some of the regular characters take care of making it entertaining. I always knew what Archie Bunker would say to his son-in-law: I just wanted to hear how he'd phrase it this time. The same is true for the Chicken Little and Polyanna factions on this blog. Keep it up, please, I need the chuckles!

Rona, I echo the posts frommichele and Accidental Landlord. We sold our condo in the South End several months ago to find a place in the suburbs and we have been renting in Wellesley since then, while we look for a house we like and can afford (tough to make those two criteria allign).

Your blog is a daily must-read for those planning to buy or sell or just watching the market. The anecdotal insight is a nice compliment to the more generic news coverage and national/state-wide statistics that are reported. I generally like your range of topics (including the topics you fear will inspire more same old, same old). If you want topic suggestions, I'd love to see some discussion on issues you've seen with buying fixer-uppers, how to identify hidden value (and hidden traps - houses on a sloped plot/near wetlands, historic registry building prohibitions, inspection items that are easily missed, locations that affect re-sale and other unfixables, etc.), negotiating tactics that you've had success with, and if not too provincial for this forum, similar buy/sell stories from some of the surrounding metro west areas outside of Boston where the school systems are attracting buyers despite the economic situation depressing real estate generally. I also like the foreclosure/short sale insights. In general though, you and Stacy post informative stuff, don't go changing. Thanks for keeping us all looped!

As a frequent poster, just wanted to chime in - amazing how many people don't like storm clouds being pointed out. People regularly blow up on the subject - every 4 months or so, and call us chicken littles et al.

Interesting the demographics of who is pointing out what. Also interesting that the chicken littles have been right for the last year or so...

J - there are many good real estate agents out there. I'd say from reading Rona is one. Your reaction to the stereotypes of real estate agents shows that you have very little experience buying and selling - fairly obvious from the comments I'd say.

Charles being the obvious "same old same old" - yet still feels compelled to add his two cents. Dude, without calling you out specifically, even the moderator implied that you're part of the problem with this blog.

Sure wish this would be posted, but have a feeling it won't.

the last post from Charles only proves what many here have been saying. his last paragraph directly insults, by name I might add, someone who previously posted nothing malicious or negative. Now "J" will probably decide not to post again in the future - is that the type of intelligent discussion you're trying to facilitate here?

My opinion . . ban Charles and Marcus and this blog improves dramatically.

Ban Charles and Marcus and this blog has no facts, or economic sense. I follow this blog very closely but post infrequently. Both Charles and Marcus have made predictions on this blog regarding the RE market that have been pretty spot on. I don't want to read about other people's opinions regarding the market, I want the straight dirt.

In the past month the banking world has been changed forever. Anyone who is in the industry just has to shake in disbelief at how easy these huge companies have crumbled faster than the South Vietnamese army in the spring of 1975. It's truely is amazing that the risk models did not factor that so many people would walk away so quickly.

I read this blog almost on a regular basis and enjoy it, and educated myself, then accept or reject it using common sense and info from other sources. I am a prospective buyer.

While I enjoy everyone's post on this blog including Charles and Marcus, at times I disagree with them as well just as others do. Someone above mentioned about banning them from this blog. That kind of comment is unacceptable and is a shame. Everyone has the right to express their opinion and we as viewer/reader should use judgement to accept or deny it.