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Finally, a good foreclosure report?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis December 12, 2008 09:00 AM

As foreclosures go, so goes the rest of real estate market.

So any signs that banks may be finally starting to slow down with the until now frenetic pace of home auctions is good news.

A new RealtyTrac report for November shows foreclosures down 7 percent from October, though still up nearly 30 percent from a year ago.

Massachusetts is experiencing some of the biggest declines, with foreclosures down roughly 32 percent from this October and 37 percent from November 2007.

It’s the lowest number of foreclosures nationally since June. New laws in several states extending the foreclosure process, as well as aggressive loan modification efforts by lenders, may be starting to pay off, the RealtyTrac report suggests.

Yet with layoffs starting to mount – just look at Bank of America’s stunning plan to slash 35,000 jobs – is this just a temporary lull in the foreclosure storm?

Delinquencies on loans not yet in foreclosure jumped 7 percent in the third quarter, the report notes, citing recent numbers put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's a record.

“There are several indications, however, that this lower activity is simply a temporary lull before another foreclosure storm hits in the coming months,’’ James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

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11 comments so far...
  1. My understanding is this is a lull created by the enactment of longer waiting and notice periods by several states. Thus I doubt it indicates a true downward trend.

    Posted by MWest December 12, 08 09:18 AM
  1. don't believe the hype, there are several states and lenders out there with moratoriums on forclosures right now. We are not even close to a bottom.

    Posted by Hung Wang December 12, 08 10:09 AM
  1. Stop paying your mortgage it's a down hill battle live in your house for free till they kivk you out and buy another house another someone eles name later when the nightmare is over.

    Done.........

    Posted by John Johnson December 12, 08 11:34 AM
  1. I suspect the declines are due largely to two factors: loan modifications and the fact that subprime mortgage resets, which peaked in the middle of 2008 have been trailing off. I wouldn't be surprised if 2009 turns out to be "not so bad", compared to 2008. Problem is, prime mortgage resets peak in 2010 and Alt A and option adjustable resets peak in 2011.

    Posted by John December 12, 08 12:58 PM
  1. Delay is not the same as paying off. Moratoriums only help if there is a temporary problem. The evidence is overwhelming that this situation is NOT a temporary problem.

    So moratoriums are just "feel good" programs that delay the inevitable. Does this mean they are bad? No, no real downside to them that I see. But no one has any business taking them seriously as a solution.

    Posted by Charles December 12, 08 02:01 PM
  1. Um, 1 in 10 homeowners with a mortgage is now delinquent. Homeowners' equity has plunged. About half of all mods fail within six months. That's just the data from reports released in the past week.

    So what you have here is a traffic pile-up of failed mortgages at the exits. Banks don't have the staff or resources to keep up.

    Posted by Marcus December 12, 08 04:11 PM
  1. If everything else wasn't hitting the proverbial fan, I would agree that this was a promising report. But the fan's looking pretty brown right now. Even if foreclosure activity slowed greatly, I would still have a very dire outlook for the real estate market.

    Posted by julio December 12, 08 04:31 PM
  1. From the great state of Florida.....

    The number of foreclosures filed in Southwest Florida and across the state fell dramatically in November and is expected to fall further in December because of moratoriums declared by the state's lenders at the urging of Gov. Charlie Crist.

    makes it pretty clear, that government action has influenced these numbers....

    Posted by Hung Wang December 13, 08 06:59 AM
  1. I think people are just starting to live up to their commitment and paying what they promised. Have faith in your fellow man. They knew what they signed when they signed it, bought well within their means, and are paying their just mortgage.

    Posted by Tim December 13, 08 07:10 AM
  1. I think people are just starting to live up to their commitment and paying what they promised

    LOL. Delinquencies are getting much, much worse. This forum makes it hard to post links, but you can find this report on Housing Wire about Fitch slashing projections for Alt-A mortgages:

    The rating agency said it now expects average cumulative losses om 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintage Alt-A transactions to hit 2.72, 6.78 and 9.58 percent, respectively, up dramatically from expectations at the agency earlier this year.

    Fitch cited a “rapid increase in 60+ day delinquencies experienced over the past six months,” despite servicers’ collective efforts to hold off on actual foreclosure sales — likely implying that a halt to foreclosures is having little effect in resolving borrower delinquencies.

    We're all subprime now!

    Posted by Marcus December 15, 08 02:40 PM
  1. I really do think CA.FL, AZ and MI will still be in free fall whereas the rest of the country's house prices stabalize. I think in future foreclosure/homesales report will have two sets of numbers, one with the aforementioned states and one without.

    Posted by noslen December 16, 08 04:54 PM
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About boston real estate now
Scott Van Voorhis is a freelance writer who specializes in real estate and business issues.
Rona Fischman is a buyer's agent who provides a look at the local housing scene, from basements to attics.
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