More signs of a spring revival?

I know you already said this in your post, but just can we post this just once so that we don't get 100 of the same posts? ***Month to month is much less useful than year over year.*** It mostly shows seasonal variations.

Also, Warren data for March is not yet available, but median sales price for feb rose from 517 last year to 620 this year, but sales are off by ~40 % (downtown Boston).

hahahaha. makes me yearn for the posts about the color of the fixer upper in natick. binyamin where are you? in our target market uag is currently down about 12% from where it pretty consistently stayed all winter, pretty much since the meltdown in sept. most of the "new" listings are last years hash and they're not going under agreement. inventory is at about 80% of what it's been the previous 5 springs and not b/c houses are moving like hot cakes.

Read the full detailed report, its very interesting.

Note the changes in prices from Dec to March:
Suffolk dropped 18%. Middlesex dropped 10%. Essex dropped 8%.

But I thought this was the most surprising part of the report.
Plymouth dropped 30% YOY ($412k Mar08 vs $285k Mar09)
Suffolk dropped 43% YOY ($535k Mar08 vs $304k Mar09)

If you can't sell your house without writing a check why put it on the market unless you need to?

#3, Brian C. It makes no sense in the real world of business or finance, but when you write: If you can't sell your house without writing a check, why put it on the market unless you need to? - it makes sense in the world of residential real estate.

First off, Sellers know that there is a small chance that they can capture someone like my wife, who is pressuring me to move and buy a new or newer house, especially during the Spring. Being a Realtor and seeing that nearly every home purchased in the past 5 years is either at the break even point or the sellers being upside down, I am hesitant to make a purchase, as the odds are that they’ll accept less later on this year. I research all the homes we look at and between mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance and repairs, realtor commissions, I haven’t seen anyone who came close to breaking even and they are usually tens or in some cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars under water. Granted, they had to live somewhere during 2002 to 2005, but are now paying the price for getting carried away with their emotions. Emotions are what drive the residential real estate business.

Reading all the dismal domestic economic and International news – plus buying homes during the past 2 recessions - I do not think we are at the bottom of the housing market - and as in any bubble, home prices will remain flat for many, many years, so there is no rush or logical reason to buy. I’ve bought homes before when I or my wife got carried away with making an emotional decision and it cost us a fortune in both money and stress in our relationship.

Even if the market were to get better (and I do hope it does), homes are not going to skyrocket as they did between 2002 and 2005. The insanity which fueled that once in a lifetime market is not around any longer. With inflation going to roar in several years due to the national debt, buying and selling homes will be just as it was between 1979 and 1983 – difficult at best – and many people contemplating buying a home do not remember those days as they were not in the market during those years.

Secondly, Sellers know that if they were to sell their home, they will also be buying another one which will also have been reduced in price by a large margin, so they can possibly move up (or rent) for the same monthly payment as they pay now.

Thirdly, even though many Realtors won’t take an over priced home listing or want to deal with a Seller in a state of denial, many of us will, as it is (more or less) free publicity and advertizing for us and a great method to attract other buyers and sellers in which to build our database and sales pipeline. Prospects are the name of the game and without them, we are out of business.

#3 Brian C: At first glance these price drops seem enormous, especially Suffolk county. But I suspect a lot of this has to do with Roxbury and Dorchester being in Suffolk, and the larger-than-average number of foreclosures in those areas. In Plymouth you have Brockton. In Middlesex, Lowell. In Essex, Lawrence.

Since we're talking about average price decreases, one or two neighborhoods devastated by foreclosures would drag down the rest of the county as well, on paper.

Just a suspicion, I don't have time to look into the stats. And this isn't to say price drops aren't happening in towns with fewer foreclosures, or tonier towns. Just that you have to look a bit deeper into given numbers.

just bought a loft/condo in the south end at close to asking price which had been reduced. that's after looking for 3mos and endless research online, countless visits and combing the blogworld & mews media. i think i did right!

I keep hearing that inventory is dropping, yet I still see the same homes for sale that have been on the market for the past 6-12 months plus and I'm seeing new for sale signs sprouting up.

How many homes were taken off the market by people who want to sell but are frustrated that they can't get the price they want? Or, how many people want to sell but don't bother listing, rather they have decided to hold out for that "rebound" that never seems to happen?

I find it extremely hard to believe that the inventory in the greater Boston area is anywhere near what would be defined as a balanced market. If that were the case home prices would not be plunging.

You are also hearing more and more about banks keeping foreclosures off the market so as to not hasten the price declines. So again, this is like the people that want to sell but know they can't get the price they want, so they don't bother listing.

Agent West: "Even if the market were to get better (and I do hope it does), homes are not going to skyrocket as they did between 2002 and 2005. The insanity which fueled that once in a lifetime market is not around any longer. "

Unfortunately, I think you're wrong. Just look at that front page puff piece the Globe ran last week about first time buyers. Some couple paid $320,000 for a condo in Mattapan. That sure sounds like insanity to me.

townhouses are still sellling for over a million in newton. the insanity continues in some areas...

Congrats mikel and welcome to the neighborhood!!

Spring has spring in a BIG way here in the Golden Triangle, the fortune blessed area of Boston bordered by the South End, Back Bay and Beacon Hill.

Open houses have been swarmed, price wars have become common place, very VERY short D.O.M. for decent properties.

Anything coming online that's in good shape and at least 2 bedrooms lasts a couple of days before being snatched up for asking or above.

The recession happening in the broader economy has touched Boston with kid gloves, thanks to our multi-pronged economy that continues to thrive in spite of some hits that certain segments might take. Any job losses in finance or education are more than made up for by health care or biotech, so jobs are still plentiful and properties in the downtown city center market are still VERY much in demand.

Mikel's long hard arduous search is testament. It's a seller's market in Boston, even still. And if it can remain so in this so-called depressionary economy, I see no reason to think it will ever change. Good luck to all the buyers out there. I know there are a LOT of you and I don't envy what you're going through right now. But congratulations to all the sellers. You're reaping the rewards for the wise choice to locate yourself in one of the most highly prized neighborhoods on the Eastern Seaboard, if not the whole western world.

Actually unsold inventory is backing up in Newton like a clogged sewer pipe. Cambridge is also interesting: There is a very large backlog of unsold million-dollar-plus single families (20-month inventory right now), plus 300+ condos for sale. There, the market may implode inwards toward the middle--prices at the lower end have fallen, and now the top isn't moving, either.

bo, how can the insanity return without free and unchecked credit? That tidal wave has gone out, and isn't coming back again.

Low interest rates and a decade of astronomically high prices that have dropped 20% make it easy for those who have gotten used to the notion of paying 4 to 5x salary for a house think things look good. The problem is the only thing that drove that ranch in Acton to double in price between 2001 and 2009 was free money. That free money is still artificially there for those who can take it, but the only places that have bottomed are places where the prices are back to mid-90's levels. When interest rates rise in another few years, prices will continue to decline or at least not appreciate. That lack of price appreciation is not yet priced into the local market.

#10. Hahhh! I've really missed your inane posts. I've been making regular appearances at Boston open houses lately in those areas you mention. What I've seen is a whole lot of nothing going on. The realtors are practically falling all over themselves when I show up. I like to play it up like I'm really interested and really get them hooked. Then as I'm leaving I usually something like "I'm not really looking to buy now, but maybe I'll stop by again in a couple of years when the listing price is down another 30%."

Sales numbers have fallen off a cliff the past few months (compared to the past few years, year over year basis). Not everywhere, but certainly places like Newton and Cambridge to name a few. And sales dropping off a cliff doesn't mean that prices have followed, but they might too. I am wondering whether anyone has any insight as to what portion of this is due to people holding off because they were waiting for the final housing bill which would provide financial incentive to buy a house? I presume that sales that are taking place now were from several months ago before the final bill was worked out. Naturally people were waiting on the sidelines to see what would happen.

Of course, much of the sales decline is due to the weak economy, but it would be interesting to know if there is any data either way.

sunshine, you once said Penny savings bank had sold out - care to comment on the fact it has 11 units remaining unsold?

Sunshine is posting the kind of nonsense that agents love to spout and is the epitome of a fallacy. Our economy in Boston may be diverse but is hurting in every segment. The government is laying off. Biotechs can't get financing. The hospitals are either laying off staff or have hiring freezes. The financial firms have been laying off staff and will probably continue. The fairly recession resistant law field has been cutting staff. Combine that with overpriced inventory that is generally of poor quality and a financing situation that makes it extremely difficult to get a loan. What you get is: why on earth would you buy or sell unless you absolutely have to.