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Intergenerational lessons in real estate

Posted by Rona Fischman June 18, 2009 03:03 PM

C., a client of mine, asked me this question:

… I was also wondering if you had any opinions on the proposed Green Line extension. Personally I think I'll be dead by the time it's done, but was wondering if you'd heard anything to the contrary. I do know about that lawsuit that said it was supposed to be completed by the end of 2014. But I'm not holding my breath.

I answered:

I think you will live to see the Green line, God willing. Based on normal actuarial tables, you have another 50 or so years to go. That said, I think the Green line will get established in Somerville and will truly make an economic difference beginning 2020 or later. By that time, you will not be so very old. Buying based on the Green Line is premature at this time. The Red Line opened in Davis and Porter Square in 1984, but the housing boom there did not take hold until the mid-1990s because of a general economic slump. Same thing could happen with the Green Line extension, whenever it really arrives.

It turns out that she was testing me. She had the historical prospective from her parent’s experience in Davis Square. She wrote:

Back in the late 70s, my parents bought a house on Francesca Ave. for about $25K in cash, from a cult (no joke). They'd bought it in anticipation of the extension to Davis, but by 1983 they'd had enough and decamped for the suburbs. I'm happy to live in a less yuppified neighborhood, but considering they left Davis when I was 3 and it didn't really develop ‘til I was almost out of high school, I'm not eager to repeat their experience with gambling on the MBTA. Of course, God only knows how much that house (a single family Victorian) is worth now.

Let C.’s parents be a lesson to you. It will be a long time before the green starts rolling in based on the Green Line rolling through Somerville. It is a long-term bet at best.

Live long and prosper.

Are you seeing green because of the Green line? Am I right to be so cautious?

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12 comments so far...
  1. I'll believe it when I see it. But I bet there are dozens of Somerville Realtors that mention the Green Line extension to their clients on a daily basis.

    Posted by jwb22 June 18, 09 04:21 PM
  1. #1--My wife and I are looking in this exact area of Medford and Somerville (not because of the green line) and you better believe every MLS listing for a house within a half-mile of this extension touts it. Nevermind that the houses are more often that not overpriced and dilapidated. But it's near as yet unrealized transportation!

    Posted by reduce media June 18, 09 06:14 PM
  1. Stay cautious. In the early 1950s when my parents were looking for a house in Framingham, they were told the the traffic problems in downtown (then the commerce center of the town) would go away when the tracks were depressed.
    50+ years later and it still hasn't happened and traffic still gets jammed when a train goes through.

    Hopefully the Green Line extension will happen more quickly.

    Posted by Maria June 18, 09 07:16 PM
  1. Well, how about a recent example - what happened to house prices when the Greenbush line opened??

    Posted by John Mc June 19, 09 12:26 PM
  1. The MBTA has so many money problems construction of an extension into Somerville would be a financial mistake. MBTA needs major management restructuring.

    Posted by In Your Dreams June 21, 09 09:31 PM
  1. I purchased my first single family in Roslindale before the commuter rail to Boston began running through Roslindale Village. Prices were down in Roslindale in relation to surrounding neighborhoods.
    When the commuter rail finally arrived, people started asking about living in Roslindale instead of asking where it was. Prices also came up in relation to those of surrounding neighborhoods.

    Posted by Sam Schneiderman June 22, 09 02:39 AM
  1. Being the landlord of an apartment in Union Square I have every reason to hope it all happens by 2014. It's a nice thing to dream about, and I often do. I have a neighbor, a plumber with deep Somerville roots, who knows city electricians, and says the work is already starting. It's anecdotal evidence, but it's nice to hear.

    You can't bet on these things though. Too many variables, to many things can go wrong. Still, I think there are reasons to be optimistic about Somerville beyond the Green Line. There's a strong local arts movement and those folks are serious activists and seriously active. The city is working on a rezoning plan to encourage more businesses in Union, and to make it better for walking, biking and driving. There are quite a few families with children choosing to stay (I know two). All of that bodes well and has nothing to do with the T.

    Posted by accidental landlord June 22, 09 11:09 AM
  1. My wife and I were/are looking at houses or condos in Somerville/ Medford and I agree with the other poster. EVERY realtor at an open house spends atleast 10 minutes saying how the Green Line is going to completely change the area and raise the property value far beyond the current owner's asking price.

    1- What if I like the area the way it is? It may not be Davis or Porter- but its close, quiet and not so yuppified. Plus, I can ride my bike or drive to either of those areas in less than five minutes if I want a $10 drink or to shop at a Whole Foods.

    2- Someone please tell me how a level of a triple-decker that needs to be somewhat remodeled and is RIGHT NEXT TO THE COMMUTER RAIL LINE is worth $325000-$400000??? The house rumbles when the train goes by (I imagine the green line would do the same), and several of the homes or units need work. I thought the housing market crashed? I'd rather sacrifice a few square feet and move to Fenway neighborhood or Brighton/Brookline. If you aren't living within walking distance to Davis or Teele Square, I fail to see the charm or reasoning to leave my perfectly good apt. in the city just so I can say I own...

    Posted by Brewster June 22, 09 03:31 PM
  1. #8: If I were looking to buy in the area the Green Line idea would only matter if I were planning to stay 10-years or more. If not, probably no point.

    At the moment, a place on top of a commuter rail line that needs work isn't worth $325-$400,000, IMO. But if you commute into the city, of course there's value in having a Green Line stop near your house. I commuted on the bus for a long time, and my tenants do it now. It's ok, but the train is quicker and doesn't deal with traffic.

    I don't think there's any danger of Whole Foods moving into Somerville/Medford any time soon. I imagine there are a few layers of gentrification to go before we're there.

    Posted by accidental landlord June 23, 09 08:44 AM
  1. Katt,
    When was the last time you were IN Somerville or Medford?
    There already is a Whole Foods in Medford.at 2151 Mystic Valley Parkway. I guess they only allow people from Cambridge to shop there, since Somerville and Medford people live on Pop Tarts and macaroni and cheese.

    Posted by Rona June 23, 09 08:55 AM
  1. I was intrigued by this headline because my elderly parents may be faced with selling into a down market sometime soon. And I'm thinking, I'm smarter, I'll sell into an up market. But reality is... from a human point of view, one wants to stay in one's own home as long as possible. And market timing is difficult even if you're rational... We bought in Westford a few years before the Rte 3 widening, but in fact the population wave had already rolled further out, even then.

    Posted by Elizabeth in Westford June 23, 09 10:40 AM
  1. You can get organic pop-tarts and Annie's Mac & Cheese at Whole Foods . . .
    We're sophisticated here in West Somerville/West Medford now.

    Posted by reduce media June 23, 09 06:21 PM
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About boston real estate now
Scott Van Voorhis is a freelance writer who specializes in real estate and business issues.
Rona Fischman is a buyer's agent who provides a look at the local housing scene, from basements to attics.
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