Celebrating a milestone - and asking for your thoughts

Love the blog (obviously, I'm a regular around here). Very impressed by the level of knowledge and insight that appears in the posts and comments. Keep up the good work!

How about a clear explanation of the various housing market data? What do they mean (in layman's terms)? Which numbers are important, which aren't? This could be a continuing series, for example: "Housing data: Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted numbers". Then you'd give a short history of the CS index and explain what "seasonally-adjusted" means, why it's important, and why it might be a better (or worse) measure of the market than other data. "Housing data: year-over-year" etc. This is inside baseball of course, sort of the tools of your trade, and I'm not sure it lends itself to comments. But I think it would be useful for market watchers to learn or refresh their memories, and help many of us as we wade through the many articles on housing we come across.

I know Rona did a series on Living Well in various towns. What about a series focusing on the data in particular towns? Do a data portrait of, say, Jamaica Plain, or Plainville.

What about getting more individual stories from people in very particular situations that are illustrative of a larger truth in the market? For example I visited friends last weekend who would like to sell their house, but because of price drops wouldn't have the downpayment for a new house. This means the husband can't take a different job, they're stuck with whatever commute they currently have, and their kids will attend whatever school systems are locally available for the near-future. Another couple have awful neighbors and hate their area, but would lose $100,000 if they sold right now.

How about investigating what development does to the housing market? I'm interested in Somerville. What do various town development plans mean for housing there? In general, what is the effect of town decisions on housing markets?

How is the rental market undulating in the current crisis? Data is not as evolved here as with housing, but we know rents are dropping across the country and vacancies are up. Why? What's going on in the Boston area? What are the differences between Boston area and further out?

I'd like to see more town by town data (or neighborhood), I know this is harder information to get, and there may be copyright issues, but its probably the most useful lens of analysis to a FTHB like myself, Mass vs. National is all well and good, but if you're looking to buy, then having the most granular data and analysis is invaluable - especially when judging what is a reasonable offer in some of the more expensive areas inside 128.

Also, I'd love to see examples. Like, all the talk about percentages of increase / decrease is great, but I'd love some sort of fictional houses to show the impact of that data on actual pricing. For example, we take 5 fictional houses set in 5 different markets, and start with a value in say 1995. Show me what the run-up and bubble pop have done to that house over time. Did it start at 200k, run up to 400k and then drop to 350k? Sort of like Zillow but using exemplars rather than actual houses (and avoiding the apparent wonkiness of Zillow's methodology), Showing me what the percentages mean in terms of "actual" prices cuz keeping track of YOY percentages in a multi-year event is difficult to map to my own valua calculations

Otherwise, I enjoy the blog (both sides). The homebuying process is super useful, and the market analysis as well.

From the Once and Future King of Boston real estate blogs, I congratulate Rona on her hard work.

Scott,
Please don't be offended, but the fact that you're still fixing up a fixer-upper you bought in 2002 has saved me the thought of buying a fixer-upper. For that, I am grateful.

i think one of the things that gets somewhat overlooked -- and this is in agreement with "accidental landlord" up there -- is the truly local aspects. a lot of the reporting here is based on the national trends, but as anyone knows, real estate IS local. and my little town where there is no rental housing and excellent schools is going to be a much stronger market than, say, somerville. in fact, our foreclosure rate has not changed over the past five years. I too would like to hear more about the local trends and looking further out than Boston itself and its immediate suburbs.

i would also be curious to know what the percentage of home ownership has been historically in the Boston area, Greater Boston area, Metrowest, South Shore, North Shore over the past 50 years in relationship to income? i believe the entitlement attitude to homeownership is a relatively new thing historically speaking.

Love the Blog. Please let our posts, post immediately none of this waiting around for hours for peoples post to show up.

Sean in West Roxbury:
1) Warren group is a great source for local RE info by town. Casual users can register for the free subscription. Also, Redfin and Zillow are good sources for macro-level info if you don't have direct access to MLS. Both sites are free.

2) Check out re-calculator dot com (hyperlinks are blocked on this site) for a "bubble adjusted" value estimate on any home. Enter an actual purchase date and price (available from property records), and the calculator backs out the effects of the bubble and shows an approximate "fair value" price based on Case Shiller index. Interesting stuff.

3) Most recorded property records in MA are available for instant viewing online. These sites are very useful for finding out liens on property, historic purchase prices, and current owner info.

Rona:
Maybe you could do a post on topic #3 above??? Also a general comment... It would be great if: a) comments posted faster and/or instantly to the site, and b) we could include hyperlinks

I promised Rona I'd stay out of this, but: I'm astonished that the Globe, and this blog, regularly write about purchasing foreclosures without mentioning Ibanez. That case has created the biggest buyer-beware horror story of recent months, and no one knows if it will impair titles for years to come. Conceivably, if your home was ever foreclosed upon in the past, even if you personally bought from a willing seller, you may not have title to it. But crickets from the press so far.

and my little town where there is no rental housing and excellent schools is going to be a much stronger market than, say, somerville.

Now Chloe, let's be nice to Somerville please. Maybe in your charming New England village more rental housing would mean the place was going to pot, but renting is a large part of greater Boston housing, and Somerville in particular. It doesn't mean blighted neighborhood, it's just the way it is. And while it's true the schools aren't great, they're not that bad. I know of several couples with children who are ready to invest in them when it's their kids' turn.

As a matter of fact, to your point about real estate being local, the depth of price drops in Somerville (like the rest of greater Boston) depend entirely on where you're talking about. East Somerville? Davis?

accidental landlord, you misunderstand me -- i don't have anything at all against somerville, and would rather live there than here :) i love somerville, and have a number of friends who live there. (my husband is the one who wanted here). i would love to unload my house and move somewhere diverse and more interesting. (my house is on the market right now, and "priced appropriately")

in fact, i believe our bucolic, stepford-like little town suffers from a severe lack of housing options -- a loss of a job or change in circumstances means a forced move out of town, and that is sad for a lot of families. i have been a strong advocate for more rental housing and multi-unit dwellings in our town, as well as affordable housing, but the folks here aren't buying it. i was stating some facts is all. there are no rentals here, no condos (if you are under 55), no apartments.....

it's weird.

and to your point, it IS local even to the point of depending where in a town or municipality you are considering, as you have pointed out.

Public elementary schools in Boston (and probably Somerville, though I haven't checked) are actually very good. I think the problems begin to crop up in middle school/high school. That can buy city parents a few more years before they need to think of moving for the schools.

Maybe you and Rona should do a blog entry on the Ortiz steroid scandal. That is clearly more important than the economic well being of this country as evidenced by the last 12 hours.

Thanks for providing a place where local folks can share ideas, opinions, and thoughts about the subject of real estate. I find your blog very helpful and informative concerning this subject and hope that you continue reporting on this subject.

Chloe: Fair enough, sorry if I got a little defensive there. But to the original idea, I think by the end of this mess even towns with little rental property and excellent schools won't necessarily be a stronger market than a place like Somerville. One reason is that the market seems to be following a pattern where so far prices have dropped the most at the low-price levels, but are moving up the chain. There are many reasons for this (foreclosures happen faster at the bottom, a dearth of move-up buyers to purchase the higher-end stuff), but the story may be that expensive towns are only at the beginning of their woes. I suspect many of the bearish data-watchers will agree with this.

Susan: You're right on about that. We'd have kept our kids in the elementary schools, but the middle and high schools wouldn't work.

accidental
all great questions/points in #2 and i second them. i also think it would be helpful to explain/refresh memories on traditional ratios. i've made this suggestion to svv in the past but no response.