A little early to declare a "sellers' market''

October saw a year-over-year jump in sales activity of more than 27 percent, to more than 2,900 homes sold in the greater Boston area.

Prices were down 3.7 percent, to $390,784, a drop that Hall argues is due to the impact of the first-time buyer credit, which has increased the number of sales in lower price ranges.

That contrasts with Zillow.com’s latest numbers on the Greater Boston market, which show a 1.6 percent year-over-year jump in home values during the third quarter.

Finally, Hall and HouseSavvy point to inventory, which has dropped to 4.7 months of supply in the Greater Boston market. That’s down from 7.5 months of supply in October, 2008, technically pushing it into a “sellers’ market’’ territory.

All told, unsold listings in the greater Boston market have fallen to 13,886, down from 17,328 a year ago.

The inventory issue is the one I find the most compelling – but also one that can be somewhat deceptive.

The Boston area has a big problem when it comes to producing enough housing, which the downturn will only exacerbate.

But the down market of the past few years also likely has a number of would-be sellers sitting on the sidelines, unwilling to sell unless they have to.

That’s not going to solve our long-term supply problems, but it is probably skewing the picture.

There’s also a new crop of foreclosures building out there as well, this time tied to the still rising jobless rate.

If you own a home, would you really want to be selling right now unless you absolutely had to?

We may be headed toward a sellers’ market, but I am not so sure we are there yet.