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Tax credit - market savior or addiction?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  November 24, 2009 07:19 AM
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It’s hard to argue that home sales are not on a roll again, both locally and nationally.

OK, housing bears, feel free to let me have it.

Still, housing sales were up for the fifth straight month in Massachusetts, jumping 17.7 percent in October. Condo sales were not far behind, rising 17.2 percent.

Nationally, resales of existing homes soared 10.1 percent, the highest in two years, the National Association of Realtors reports.

But the number that I have been wrestling actually came out a few weeks ago. And it may speak volumes to what is driving this current sales rally.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a dramatic falloff in applications for new mortgages the week of Nov. 13.

That appeared to reflect a widely reported, though temporary lag, in sales activity leading up to the extension of the tax credit by Congress earlier in the month.


Basically, prospective home buyers were hedging their bets in the days leading up to the extension, leading to a temporary falloff in activity in the mortgage pipeline.

And what a drop it was – mortgage applications plunged 4.7 percent, to their lowest level in more than a decade, the MBA reported.

New home construction and building permits also fell off markedly in the uncertainty leading up to the decision by Congress to extend the home buyer tax credit, which had been set to expire at the end of November, into the spring.

Maybe it’s a sign that the home sales rally is losing steam, though I don’t think so given the latest round of past and pending home sales numbers. (Pending sales, a sign of future activity, were also up in 27 percent in October, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.)

Rather, it’s another indicator of how important the tax credit has become to driving demand in a market where rising unemployment and a gloomy economy are exerting a strong, downward pull.

I tend to lean towards the idea the tax credit has been a savior for the market, but the growing evidence of addiction also leaves me uneasy as well.

The housing market is increasingly dependent on the federal government right now, not just with tax credits to drive home buying demand, but a range of mortgage rate and debt subsidies as well.

At some point, Uncle Sam is going to have to step back and start letting the market walk on its own.

But it’s going to be one painful process - and I bet it’s one that is likely to get punted down the road again come spring.

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About boston real estate now
Scott Van Voorhis is a freelance writer who specializes in real estate and business issues.
Rona Fischman is a buyer's agent who provides a look at the local housing scene, from basements to attics.
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