Guess what housing bears? Realtors also see a drop-off coming
Now talk about some very strange bedfellows.
Some of the housing bears on this blog have been loudly predicting the end of the real estate market as we know it after the great government conspiracy to re-inflate the housing market - otherwise known as the home buyer tax credit - expires in April.
Well guess what bears? More than a few real estate brokers are also bracing for life in the post tax credit world as well.
A Massachusetts Association of Realtors' survey finds that nearly 70 percent of its members see either a modest decline or a steep fall off after the tax credit expires.
Bet you didn't know you had that much in common, now did you?
Of course, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that once the government stops spending billions to subsidize home buyers, gee whiz, sales may drop.
But the MAR survey at the least makes clear that a lot of people in the real estate business aren't drinking the Kool-Aid either - the idea the tax credit would kickstart a stalled housing market.
Roughly 53 percent told MAR the market "will somewhat decline" after the tax credit (presumably) goes away after April, with another 15 percent submitting an even gloomier assessment the market will "significantly decline."
By contrast, only 9 percent argued the market will "somewhat improve" while 24 percent believe home sales will simply stay the same. And apparently none chose the most bullish option, that the market will "significantly improve" after the tax credit goes away.
The MAR survey is part of a larger, monthly market index just launched by the trade group to offer a more up-to-date assessment of conditions than simply relying on home sales, which usually take months to close.
I guess if our local Realtors are going to launch an index, it's no real surprise they are doing it now given the comparison with January 2009, when the country was gripped by fears another Great Depression.
Sure enough, the press release announcing the launch of the new Massachusetts Realtor Market Index points out a 99.8 percent improvement over January, 2009.
Of course, that only boosts the index to 34.3 on a scale of 100 points, with anything below 50 still considered negative territory.
Surely it will be interesting to watch.
