Another day, a sunnier home price forecast
Home price forecasts are kind of like the old cliché about New England weather - if you don't like it, just wait a while.
In fact, Greater Boston is mentioned prominently as one of the markets where home prices are expected to begin climbing again - by next fall that is, but you have to dig a bit to get that far.
Check out the email sent to me by the publicist for CBS MoneyWatch - after reading it I just can't wait too put my home on the market and head for an open house!
"For the most part, the numbers are looking better - Boston suburbs and parts of Washington state are expected to see sharp gains, and the San Francisco Bay Area is positively booming. Even Salinas, Calif., where home prices were cut by more than half when the bubble burst, is forecast to see a modest increase in prices by next fall."
Still, overly rosy or not, it's a forecast that appears to be odds with the trends most other market trackers are starting to raise alarms about.
Year over year comparisons look pretty good right now - it's not hard to beat the dismal performance of the real estate market during the nuclear winter of 2009.
But there has been a noticeable fall-off in prices on a month over month basis heading into the spring season - a trend flagged by Zillow.
The Bay State is no exception to this. Home prices slid 1.6 percent from December to January, despite big year-over-year gains. Nationally, new home sales have also fallen off once again.
A little digging also reveals that even the CBS MoneyWatch folks, despite the positive spin they've given to their numbers, are also hedging their bets. Boston area home prices are expected to fall 5 percent by next fall compared to the fall of 2009, followed by a 5 percent jump. Prices in the western suburbs will fall roughly another 6 percent through the fall, before jumping 6 percent over 2011.
So what's to explain the loss of momentum?
The most obvious culprit is the magic surrounding the home buyer tax credit may by starting to fade. As the theory goes, there are only so many potential buyers out there in a gloomy economy like ours. The tax credit may have already succeeded in luring them out.
Or maybe, with the extension of the tax credit to the end of April, buyers are simply taking a breather.
March is here so we will soon find out the truth.
