One more day about asking prices and assessed values
Sale prices or assessed values, which are more accurate? Today, I indulge
Lance, who asked:
On your list… I see your point about how sale prices do not line up with assessments. Nobody ever said they would. If you’re feeling charitable, I would be curious to see the same list run against initial (not latest) asking prices for those same properties…. Please post a comparison, along with the average margin of error for both groups (assessors vs. UHS). I assume the margin of error will occur in both directions (not just on the high side) for the UHS’s listing prices given all those bidding wars happening this spring.
(Data on the next page)
Owners want their assessments low, so their taxes are not inflated. Therefore assessments need to be pegged to the low-priced end of the selling season. So it didn’t surprise me that winter sales were in line with assessed values, and spring sales were off. It also didn’t surprise me that agents do better with sticking to their original asking prices in the spring, than they do in the winter. As a buyer’s agent, I prefer winter shopping, when the asking prices are more negotiable and prices, in general, are lower.
Lance predicted:
I think you will find the asking prices cooked up by the all-knowing UHS listing agents are even more out of line with reality than the assessments.
Actually, they are about the same amount off, depending on the season. However, at their worst, both the assessor’s offices and the agents are the same as Zillow, or better.
End of May 2011
Town Assessed Sale Difference Margin of Error
Acton $554,700 $570,000 $15,300 2.8%
Arlington 376,700 $360,000 ($16,700) -4.4%
Belmont $607,000 $670,000 $63,000 10.4%
Belmont $533,000 $659,000 $126,000 23.6%
Brookline $848,000 $1,020,000 $172,000 20.3%
Concord $820,000 $685,000 ($135,000) -16.5%
Lexington $521,000 $515,000 ($6,000) -1.2%
Lexington 787,000 $850,000 $63,000 8.0%
Lexington $579,000 $750,000 $171,000 29.5%
Medford $326,800 $366,000 $39,200 12.0%
Medford $310,600 $373,000 $62,400 20.1%
Melrose $464,300 $472,000 $7,700 1.7%
Melrose $292,800 $300,000 $7,200 2.5%
Melrose 374,000 $435,534 $61,534 16.5%
Melrose $408,700 $640,000 $231,300 56.6%
Needham $396,400 $318,000 ($78,400) -19.8%
Newton $424,900 $479,000 $54,100 12.7%
Sudbury $512,900 $502,000 ($10,900) -2.1%
Sudbury $784,500 $845,000 $60,500 7.7%
Waltham $317,700 $375,000 $57,300 18.0%
Waltham $739,000 $939,900 $200,900 27.2%
Wayland $1,013,200 $889,000 ($124,200) -12.3%
Wayland $556,700 $562,000 $5,300 1.0%
Wayland $515,200 $615,000 $99,800 19.4%
Winchester $795,600 $860,000 $64,400 8.1%
Average Margin of Error 9.7%
Median Margin of Error 8.0%
End of May 2011
Town Original Asking Sale Difference Margin of Error
Acton $579,000 $570,000 ($9,000) -1.6%
Arlington $379,000 $360,000 ($19,000) -5.0%
Belmont $689,000 $670,000 ($19,000) -2.8%
Belmont $659,000 $659,000 $0 0.0%
Brookline $1,020,000 $1,020,000 $0 0.0%
Concord $749,000 $685,000 ($64,000) -8.5%
Lexington $519,900 $515,000 ($4,900) -0.9%
Lexington $850,000 $850,000 $0 0.0%
Lexington $729,000 $750,000 $21,000 2.9%
Medford $389,000 $373,000 ($16,000) -4.1%
Medford $365,000 $366,000 $1,000 0.3%
Melrose $319,000 $300,000 ($19,000) -6.0%
Melrose $475,000 $472,000 ($3,000) -0.6%
Melrose $639,900 $640,000 $100 0.0%
Melrose $359,000 $435,534 $76,534 21.3%
Needham $379,000 $318,000 ($61,000) -16.1%
Newton $489,000 $479,000 ($10,000) -2.0%
Sudbury 875,000 $845,000 ($30,000) -3.4%
Sudbury $515,000 $502,000 ($13,000) -2.5%
Waltham $379,000 $375,000 ($4,000) -1.1%
Waltham $939,900 $939,900 $0 0.0%
Wayland $619,900 $562,000 ($57,900) -9.3%
Wayland $949,900 $889,000 ($60,900) -6.4%
Wayland $629,000 $615,000 ($14,000) -2.2%
Winchester $885,000 $860,000 ($25,000) -2.8%
Average Margin of Error -0.1%
Median Margin of Error -2.2%
End of February 2011
Town Assessed Sale Difference Margin of Error
Acton 393,700.00 450,000.00 $56,300 14.3%
Arlington 385,400.00 450,000.00 $64,600 16.8%
Bedford 344,400.00 375,000.00 $30,600 8.9%
Brookline 585,000.00 538,800.00 ($46,200) -7.9%
Cambridge 403,900.00 435,000.00 $31,100 7.7%
Concord 494,800.00 484,000.00 ($10,800) -2.2%
Medford 292,600.00 290,000.00 ($2,600) -0.9%
Medford 371,600.00 390,000.00 $18,400 5.0%
Medford 292,200.00 370,000.00 $77,800 26.6%
Melrose 493,300.00 405,000.00 ($88,300) -17.9%
Natick 372,500.00 387,000.00 $14,500 3.9%
Natick 330,500.00 352,000.00 $21,500 6.5%
Natick 530,300.00 570,000.00 $39,700 7.5%
Natick 271,700.00 295,500.00 $23,800 8.8%
Needham 493,700.00 590,000.00 $96,300 19.5%
Newton 783,200.00 746,300.00 ($36,900) -4.7%
Sudbury 776,800.00 795,000.00 $18,200 2.3%
Waltham 238,300.00 185,500.00 ($52,800) -22.2%
Waltham 346,100.00 300,000.00 ($46,100) -13.3%
Watertown 424,700.00 380,000.00 ($44,700) -10.5%
Watertown 575,900.00 570,000.00 ($5,900) -1.0%
Wayland 371,000.00 434,500.00 $63,500 17.1%
Wellesley 1,204,000.00 1,145,000.00 ($59,000) -4.9%
Wellesley 1,182,000.00 1,157,800.00 ($24,200) -2.0%
Wellesley 359,000.00 422,000.00 $63,000 17.5%
Average Margin of Error 3.0%
Median Margin of Error 2.3%
End of February 2011
Town Original Asking Sale Difference Margin of Error
Arlington 459,000.00 450,000.00 ($9,000) -2.0%
Bedford 440,000.00 375,000.00 ($65,000) -14.8%
Brookline 599,000.00 538,800.00 ($60,200) -10.1%
Cambridge 495,000.00 435,000.00 ($60,000) -12.1%
Concord 579,000.00 484,000.00 ($95,000) -16.4%
Medford 339,900.00 290,000.00 ($49,900) -14.7%
Medford 379,900.00 370,000.00 ($9,900) -2.6%
Medford 399,900.00 390,000.00 ($9,900) -2.5%
Melrose 447,500.00 405,000.00 ($42,500) -9.5%
Natick 699,900.00 570,000.00 ($129,900) -18.6%
Natick 329,000.00 295,500.00 ($33,500) -10.2%
Natick 425,000.00 387,000.00 ($38,000) -8.9%
Natick 359,900.00 352,000.00 ($7,900) -2.2%
Needham 674,900.00 590,000.00 ($84,900) -12.6%
Newton 839,000.00 746,300.00 ($92,700) -11.0%
Sudbury 834,000.00 795,000.00 ($39,000) -4.7%
Waltham 249,900.00 185,500.00 ($64,400) -25.8%
Waltham 389,000.00 300,000.00 ($89,000) -22.9%
Watertown 439,900.00 380,000.00 ($59,900) -13.6%
Watertown 615,000.00 570,000.00 ($45,000) -7.3%
Wayland 464,900.00 434,500.00 ($30,400) -6.5%
Wellesley 489,900.00 422,000.00 ($67,900) -13.9%
Wellesley 1,199,000.00 1,157,800.00 ($41,200) -3.4%
Wellesley 1,185,000.00 1,145,000.00 ($40,000) -3.4%
Median Margin of Error -10.2%
Average Margin of Error -10.1%
