Economists push back predictions of a housing recovery
Really, this is a foolish game, trying to predict what quarter home prices will start to turn around.
Yet every housing tracker out there does it, dutifully rolling out their latest home price predictions every quarter or so, trying to pinpoint at what time in the future prices will being their long-awaited turnaround.
The latest entry in the predictions game is Fiserv, which has pushed back by another three months the date at which it believes the market will shift into recovery mode.
Fiserv is now predicting that prices, now falling amid the double dip, won't get back to where they were in the first three months of this year until early 2013.
Still, a more honest approach would be to refrain from offering such pinpoint predictions and state plainly that no one really knows when the housing market will stage a turnaround - it all depends on the economy. And the economy right now is in flux.
If we manage to dodge another recession and get more painfully slow growth - a best case scenario - then maybe, just maybe, Fiserv's predictions will be roughly on the mark. Given Greater Boston's relatively thriving economy right now - at least compared with the rest of the country - that could mean more stubbornly declining prices here, but no dramatic shift down.
But if we wind up with another recession, all bets are off.
