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Will your house be worth more in five years?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  December 20, 2011 06:08 AM
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That's a crucial question for anyone hoping to eventually move up the housing ladder.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that moving up in this market is going to be pretty tough, especially if you bought your home during the bubble years.

But what will the market look like five years from now in 2016?

Zillow.com put that question to a panel of more than 100 economists from across the country and came back with some pretty interesting answers.

The most optimistic economists are projecting an 18.3 percent bump in prices by 2016 - just in time to bolster President Bachmann/Paul or Cain's relection bid. OK, just kidding, but that's how seriously I would take that prediction. (And yes, I know Cain is out of the race.)

On the other end of the spectrum, some economists are forecasting further declines, with home prices falling another 1.4 percent over the next five years.

Now that's far more realistic than the idea of a home price surge - and may be closer to the truth than the concenus forecast which meshes together all 109 responses from various economists.

The blended view predicts that home prices will fall another 1.57 percent in the fourth quarter, finally hitting bottom late next year or early 2013. Then prices will rebound, rising 3 percent a year after from 2014 through the end of 2016.

For mover uppers, that's hardly encouraging news. But then again, if you want to buy up, you will eventually find a way. It just won't be easy.

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About boston real estate now
Scott Van Voorhis is a freelance writer who specializes in real estate and business issues.
Rona Fischman is a buyer's agent who provides a look at the local housing scene, from basements to attics.
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