Real Estate By the Numbers

Boom to Bust? Is the Southie Bubble Looming?

For a while now we've been seeing signs that the South Boston market was reaching a tipping point that could lead to a slowdown. While pricing numbers for Southie continue to look great year over year we're beginning to see some troubling signs in the neighborhood with inventory up 36% over this time last year and the average list-to-sale price ratio dipping below 100% for the past 3 months.

What we're finally seeing after two years of huge gains in Southie is a slight push back from buyers, not willing to pay the ever increasing prices and compete in the bidding wars. Simply put, some buyers are sitting out or moving elsewhere now that the "value" of Southie has all but evaporated.

What does this mean? Is the sky falling?

Not at all. In fact, the neighborhood is still strong, up over 9% since last year. However, it seems as though the days of listing a home above market price and still having it sell immediately seem to be done. For now. Homes are still selling on average in about a month and a half, which historically speaking is very good. However, that is up from an average of just 27 days last year. The Southie market just saw one of the largest pricing run ups in Boston history and it may well not be over for good, however, it seems as though there is some signs of a slowdown from the breakneck pace of years past.

For buyers this should give them more opportunities to negotiate a good deal and avoid bidding wars. For sellers this market simply makes it more important to price and market your home correctly. Mistakes in this market can easily cost sellers thousands, something that wasn't as prevalent an issue just a year ago.

Where the neighborhood goes from here is up to the buyers and sellers of Southie. If prices plateau for a short period and inventory dries up again, we may well see another run up. If prices continue to balloon and inventory does as well, we may well see things slow down even further. Only time will tell.

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