West appears to be best
Welcome to the NBA playoffs. Or, as it's known in Boston, passover. (That's an old Bob Hope line.)
Once again, the power appears to be in the Western Conference, where the team playing the best is the third seed. In the Eastern Conference, the defending world champions don't even have home-court advantage in the first round, just the presumptive air that defending champs seem to get this time of year.
The fun series appear to be in the West. We have a potential seven-gamer right off the bat with the Rockets and Jazz, and whoever wins likely gets the Mavericks. The Suns and Spurs, who were conference finalists two years ago, appear to be headed toward a second-round meeting as well. Whoever survives in the West will likely have home court and be the favorite in the Finals. That was the case last year with Dallas -- and the Mavericks lost.
One of the story lines in the West is, finally, a postseason appearance for the Warriors, ending a drought that goes back to 1994. Adonal Foyle will finally see a playoff paycheck, although it may not be one with a lot of zeros. But the Warriors did it.
In the East, the Pistons have quietly been the most consistent team in an otherwise uneventful season, save for the emergence of the Raptors and the possible reemergence of the Heat. The Raptors ran away with the Hindenburg Division, the only team of the five with a winning record. The Heat, meanwhile, face a tough road to even get back to the Finals, starting with the team that gave them the most trouble last year in the postseason: Da Bulls.
The preseason prediction here was Phoenix-Detroit in the Finals. I still like the Pistons. I'd love to see the Suns get there. But the way the Spurs are playing makes it hard to pick against that playoff-grizzled group.
Eastern Conference
Detroit vs. Orlando
You will have a hard time finding anyone who thinks this will be much of a series. The Magic are the proverbial "happy to be there" group, while the hardened Pistons are the "bigger fish to fry" group. The Magic haven't been in the playoffs since 2003 and haven't won a series since 1996. You have all kinds of subplots, such as Grant Hill getting to play against his former team (although that was seven years ago) and Darko Milicic (who has a bum foot) playing against his former team (although it may not remember him). The Pistons have the requisite big guys (who knew Dale Davis was still alive?) to combat Dwight Howard and the Pistons' veteran backcourt should have free reign against the turnover-prone Magic. The only thing that makes this thing go more than the minimum is that the Pistons never sweep anyone. They even lost one game to Milwaukee in the first round last year, and that was a horrible Bucks team. But they'll only be making one trip to Hooterville this time around.
PREDICTION: Pistons in five.
Cleveland vs. Washington
Forget about the regular season because two of the three games were in November -- the other was 15 days ago, when Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler were hors de combat for the Wizards. The Cavaliers' first order of business is to send flowers, chocolates, candy, and anything else to the Nets, whose victory over the Bulls Wednesday put Cleveland into the second spot, avoiding a first-round matchup with Miami. Instead, the Cavaliers get a rematch from last year, but with a Washington team minus its two best players. Last year's series was fun; lots of drama, buzzer-beaters, and, finally for LeBron James, a rite of passage. The Cavaliers may not even be the fourth-best team in the East, but they were the only one to win 50, other than the Pistons. So, give them their props. Mike Brown made some adjustments, giving Larry Hughes the ball and Sasha Pavlovic some minutes. Now, if they can remember they have a big guy who can score, that'd be a bonus.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in five.
Toronto vs. New Jersey
The Bulls weren't the only team that suffered by the result of their finale against New Jersey. By winning, the Nets climbed over the Wizards and into the Raptors' crosshairs, which seems only fair given it'll mean Vince Carter returning to Canada. But don't you think the Raptors would rather have had the Wizards? The Nets seem to have already started their postseason, winning eight of their last 10 to get to 41-41. They also have oodles of playoff experience, going back to their consecutive appearances in the Finals in 2002 and '03. Toronto has been arguably the NBA's best story this season, but most of the Raptors are playoff rookies, even if a few have international experience. And who knows how much they'll miss Jorge Garbajosa, one of their key players this season. The Nets finally seem to be playing like we thought they'd play, and Carter averaged almost 30 points a game in April.
PREDICTION: Nets in six.
Miami vs. Chicago
This is not what the Bulls wanted. But they lost a game (to New Jersey Wednesday ) they needed to win and now face the defending champs in the first round in what easily is the best series in the conference. Chicago opened the season with a 42-point whuppin' of the Heat. In the teams' last meeting, March 7, the Heat won by 33. But no one plays Miami (and Dwyane Wade) better than Chicago, and this year's Bulls, if they can ever locate Ben Wallace, have the defenders to make it hard on the Heat. And who knows how healthy Wade really is? Pat Riley says his team is the best in the league when it's "functional." When has that been? When everyone was finally available, the Heat lost two in a row to Walter Herrmann and the Bobcats. The Bulls had these guys on the ropes in the first round last year and couldn't close the deal. They have home-court advantage this time around, and payback in mind. Miami was able to turn it on at this time last year. It's going to be much harder this year.
PREDICTION: Bulls in seven.
Western Conference
Dallas vs. Golden St.
Forget about the regular season. Two of the Warriors' three wins came when the Mavericks were in their wilderness stage (the 0-4 start) or in their cooling-down stage (Tuesday). The legit Mavericks win came just before the Celtics arrived in Dallas, and prompted questions of panic in Big D. We know Don Nelson knows the Mavericks as well as anyone, but you have to think talent wins out in these things, and Dallas is the more talented team. That is not a news bulletin. Nellie will throw out small lineups (as the Suns did last year) and maybe steal a game in Oakland, but it's hard to envision him beating Dallas four times to spring the upset of all upsets. Dallas's huddle-breaking cry all season has been "one, two, three, finish!" We all know what they're talking about. Assuming Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry remember what the postseason is all about, something about which many of the Warriors are clueless, this has to be Dallas's first step toward redemption.
PREDICTION: Mavericks in five.
Phoenix vs. LA Lakers
These two had an enthralling first-round matchup last year; who can forget Tim Thomas's big 3-pointer in Game 6 and Kobe Bryant's second-half disappearing act in the Game 7 blowout? This year, the personnel has changed. The Suns have Amare Stoudemire to menace the middle (and a healthy Kurt Thomas) and the usual collection of perimeter killers who feed off Steve Nash's penetration-kickouts. Phoenix also may have the league's most unappreciated elite player in Shawn Marion, who does everything. The Lakers have, well, Kobe, who'll be hounded again by Raja Bell. If someone (Lamar Odom?) can step up, maybe this series becomes as competitive as last year's. But given the way the Lakers closed the season (12-21 in their final 33 games, with two of the wins against the Celtics), this looks more like the Bulls of the 1980s going up against the Celtics. Kobe will get his. Maybe a lot of his. But the better team will prevail.
PREDICTION: Suns in six.
San Antonio vs. Denver
These teams met Wednesday and the game had all the feel of an October matchup in Fort Collins or Corpus Christi. The Nuggets didn't play Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, or Marcus Camby. The Spurs didn't play Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Fabricio Oberto. Denver's scrubs won handily, but the real fellas will be there when this thing opens, and the Spurs have finally started to play like the team we all thought they'd be. From Feb. 13 to April 13, the Spurs were 25-3 (with one of the losses to the Celtics in San Antonio). Forget about their last three losses; one was the Duncan ejection game and the other two were the Duncan/Ginobili/Parker inactive games. Denver has come on strong, finally, and has the personnel to make this interesting. But the Nuggets were hotter than Hades two seasons ago at this point, and the Spurs dusted them off in five games. The Nuggets may get more wins this time, but not the required number.
PREDICTION: Spurs in six.
Utah vs. Houston
This is as close as you can get, but sentiment seems to be shifting to Houston, and Tracy McGrady at last winning a playoff series. The Jazz were one of the best stories early in the season and have plenty of weapons to throw at McGrady and Yao Ming, especially if the perpetually ailing Andrei Kirilenko is able to go. But Houston has home court, and the veterans that playoff teams need to succeed, be it Dikembe Mutombo or Shane Battier (who will be looking for his first playoff win after going 0-12 with Memphis). As well-balanced as the Jazz have been, this is not a playoff-experienced team. Kirilenko and Jarron Collins are the only holdovers from the last Utah playoff team (2003, a first-round loss to the Kings). Key guys such as Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are making their playoff debuts.
PREDICTION: Rockets in seven. 
