Fuzzy reception
Many WRs taken in first round have dropped the ball
As part of their year-round preparations for the NFL draft, the Patriots conduct studies on past drafts in hopes of making more educated selections.
There is the study, for example, on the success rate of small-school offensive linemen. History shows it is a longer shot for those players to emerge, with perennial Pro Bowler Larry Allen (Sonoma State) and 12-year veteran Chris Villarrial (Indiana-Pennsylvania) the exceptions.
Heading into a draft considered deep at wide receiver, perhaps no study will be more relevant for the Patriots -- and the league's other 31 clubs -- than the volatile history of first-round receivers.
Since 2000, 31 receivers have been taken in the first round. Five are already out of the league, nine are no longer with their original clubs (mostly because of ineptitude), and the majority have struggled to meet expectations.
"There is a pretty decent failure rate at a lot of positions," said Patriots coach Bill Belichick, "and receiver is up there."
Surely, there have been some first-round receiving gems, such as St. Louis's Torry Holt (No. 6, 1999), Houston's Andre Johnson (No. 3, 2003), Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald (No. 3, 2004), and Detroit's Roy Williams (No. 7, 2004).
But for every star, there have been multiple receivers who haven't lived up to their first-round billing, a group that includes Cincinnati's Peter Warrick (No. 4, 2000), Chicago's David Terrell (No. 8, 2001), Seattle's Koren Robinson (No. 9, 2001), and Detroit's Charles Rogers (No. 2, 2003).
All the more maddening to NFL personnel evaluators is the growing success of receivers picked in the lower rounds, such as the Saints' seventh-round pick in 2006, Marques Colston, or closer to home, the Patriots' 2002 seventh-round pick, David Givens.
Sometimes it leaves those in charge scratching their heads.
"You have first-round busts and seventh-rounders going to the Pro Bowl," said Chargers general manager A.J. Smith. "That's the mystery of the business."
The question to be answered, then, is why the receiver position has produced such uneven results.
When Belichick considers the challenges of evaluating college receivers, he points to several areas.
"No. 1, just in terms of defense, there is no press coverage in college and you see a lot of it in the NFL," he said. "So if a player can't get away from that, he'll have a problem. In college, they might not see a defender until they are 10 yards off the line of scrimmage."
Another challenge, according to Belichick, is factoring in other elements around receivers, so "you have to judge how much of the production is based on the system or the quarterback."
Two examples of players that fit in that category, on opposite ends of the spectrum, are Marcus Nash and Givens.
Nash was a first-round pick of the Broncos in 1998, having put up eye-popping numbers at Tennessee. Yet he lasted only three seasons in the NFL, as it soon became clear his college production was as much a product of playing with Peyton Manning as it was his own skill set.
Givens slipped to the seventh round in 2002, partially because of Notre Dame's struggling passing offense. "In that case, it's hard to see skills," Belichick said.
It can also be hard to look past stats.
"The fact of the matter is that if you have a 1,000-yard receiver, he's probably going to get a decent grade," Belichick said. "Running back and receiver are stat positions. It's a different type of position than offensive or defensive line, where those stats don't come into play. But a lot of things go into those receiver's numbers. Did they come against a poor defense? Was it the quarterback?"
Ashley Lelie, a first-round pick of the Broncos (19th overall) in 2002, is an example of a receiver whose solid college statistics look to be a byproduct of Hawaii's run-and-shoot offense.
Then there is the difference between the college passing game and the pros.
"In the college passing game, there is very little intermediate passing," Belichick said. "What you mostly see is the jailbreak screen, with all the blockers downfield, which is smart because it's legal [it isn't in the NFL]. Or you see the play-action, one-man route, and a good receiver who is big and can jump a bit can make the play over smaller defensive backs. The quarterback can just lob it up there.
"You don't see that in our game," Belichick said. "Some wide receivers, particularly bigger guys who run after the catch and outjump defenders, they get in this league and can't do that. When that is taken away, you have to rely on intermediate routes and separation with quickness. The ability to separate is important, and the size isn't that big of an advantage."
As if that wasn't enough for scouts to project, factoring in the mental aspect of the game is another part of the challenge.
"In certain offensive systems, you have to make route adjustments after the snap," Belichick said. "A lot of colleges don't do that. So the mental aspect is important. How will the player react to coverages and pressures that we see?"
Bethel Johnson, selected by the Patriots in the second round of 2003, fits in this category. He was the fastest receiver on the roster in terms of 40-yard dash speed, but did not play that fast when called upon to make adjustments in his routes.
And if there is one more element that complicates the ability to accurately project how a receiver will transition from college to the NFL, it's the hands.
"There is so much off coverage in college, so you see more body catching," Belichick said. "In this league, the coverage is tighter and you have to be able to catch the ball away from your body. That is definitely an area that is hard to evaluate, because you want to see wide receivers make catches extending his arms."
The underlying theme when it comes to receivers in the first round: Buyer beware.
A team might strike it rich with someone such as Javon Walker (No. 20, 2002). Or a club might be stuck with a Freddie Mitchell (No. 25, 2001). For every star such as Lee Evans (No. 13, 2004) and Reggie Wayne (No. 30, 2001), there are disappointments such as Yatil Green (No. 15, 1997) and Rashaun Woods (No. 31, 2004). The possibility of a Santana Moss (No. 16, 2001) is intriguing, but there's also the risk of someone such as Reidel Anthony (No. 16, 1997).
Although the same holds true for all positions, it is challenging to find another spot that has produced the up-and-down results as first-round receivers. Given the success of finding receivers later in the draft, teams must ask if there is true value in picking a receiver in the first round.
This weekend, with one of the deepest receiving classes in recent history, the question figures to be repeated in draft rooms.
Mike Reiss can be reached at mreiss@globe.com. 
