A host of possibilities

After little-known Pyeongchang nearly upended Vancouver in the last Winter Games vote, nobody's betting the palace on how the International Olympic Committee will vote tomorrow when it chooses its 2014 site in Guatemala. "I expect it to be as close as Singapore," reckoned president Jacques Rogge, referring to the session two years ago when London outpolled favored Paris by four votes for the 2012 Summer nod.

This time, though, it's Pyeongchang that has the edge over Salzburg (Austria) and Sochi (Russia), based on the IOC's recent technical assessment of the candidate cities. "If we don't win, I personally fear for my safety," joked South Korean president Roh Moo Hyun, who'll be on hand to lobby, as will Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and Austrian chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer.

Salzburg, the first city eliminated last time, was the early choice for 2014, but leadership issues, a lowball budget, iffy public backing, and the Turin doping scandal involving Austrian skiers and biathletes have hurt. "Six months ago Salzburg was the favorite," acknowledges Norwegian board member Gerhard Heiberg, one of 102 eligible voters. "Things have happened since then. Today, it's not the case anymore."

Though Sochi, a resort between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, is the longshot, the Russians have promised to pump $12 billion into construction, and Putin's presence, fresh off his Kennebunkport summit with President Bush, will add weight to the bid. "This is not a Muppet show," says Dmitry Chernyshenko, chief executive director of the Sochi bid. "Russia is very serious about this."

The choice may well come down to five-ringed geopolitics. Russia, which has been at or near the top of the medal table for half a century, never has hosted the Winter Olympics. And the snow-and-ice Games haven't been held in Asia since 1998 and never in Korea. Pyeongchang's biggest worry may be that the country already is hosting the Asian Games in 2014 plus the 2011 world track-and-field championships and the Lords of the Rings may not want to add a third big entree to Korea's plate.

Even though the readmission vote for the Olympic program is another two years off, the International Softball Federation is making its big push now, trying to get the number of countries playing the sport (a key IOC benchmark) up to 150 by focusing on Africa and the Middle East (Jordan signed up last month). If the federation is successful (one vote was the difference when the sport was dropped), softball will be back on the list for 2016. Meanwhile, cycling is in no danger of being dropped from the Games, despite its ongoing doping nightmare. "It is not the UCI [the international federation] who is cheating," observes Rogge. "It is the riders who are cheating. As long as the UCI will do the utmost effort and have the same zero tolerance as the IOC, they will have their place at the Games." . . . Oscar "Blade Runner" Pistorius, the South African amputee sprinter whose special curved prostheses allow him to run faster than most able-bodied athletes, will be allowed to race against them after all. At least until the international track-and-field federation, which originally had banned any athlete using "artificial" help, can determine whether Pistorius's carbon-fiber legs give him an unfair advantage. "These are passive devices," insists Pistorius, who was born without fibulas. "If anything, I am at more of a disadvantage. I have no ankles. There is less blood flowing through my body. I have no calf muscles, so I have to use more muscles to do what they would." Pistorius, who finished second in the 400 meters at the national championships, needs only to END drop his time by three-10ths of a second to qualify for Beijing . . . Tyson Gay's blazing 100-200 double (9.84-19.62) at the US outdoor track and field championships in Indianapolis was the fastest in history. Gay, who'd set a meet record in the 100, ran the second-best 200 ever into a headwind on a wet track, missing Michael Johnson's 1996 world record (19.32) by three-10ths while knocking off defending champion (and training partner) Wallace Spearmon.

Besides hosting the Olympic men's marathon trials in November, the New York organizers will provide the US women with a cash incentive to reach the 'A' standard (2:39:00) at the following day's New York City Marathon to qualify for the April trials in Boston. The top 30 runners with the 'B' standard (2:47:00) will get traveling and housing assistance to the Apple. Anyone who achieves the 'A' there gets a $2,500 bonus . . . Michael Phelps's pre-Olympic year continues to go swimmingly. After claiming seven gold medals and setting five global marks at the spring world championships, he won six races and set five meet records in last weekend's Santa Clara Grand Prix. "Not bad," assessed Phelps, who caught Canadian co-world champion Brent Hayden in the 100 freestyle, which he seldom swims . . . Three quarters of sailing's Olympic entry slots for Beijing will be determined at the quadrennial world championships in Portugal, which begin today. Best chance for the Americans could come from John Lovell and Charlie Ogletree, who won silver in the Tornado class in Athens. Among the New Englanders competing is Andy Horton of Newport, R.I., fresh off working as strategist for Italy's Luna Rossa, which lost to Team New Zealand in the challenger's finals for the America's Cup. Horton is teaming with Williams grad Brad Nichol of Lake Sunapee, N.H. . . . Just in case people have forgotten who the defending champions are, the US women's soccer team will wear golden jerseys at next year's Olympic tournament. It's the first time the squad has worn a dominant color other than red, white, or blue. The Americans, who are coming off a shutout of Athens runnerup Brazil, will meet former champion Norway a week from Saturday at Rentschler Field in East Hartford.

Three New England boxers have qualified for next month's Olympic trials in Houston -- light welterweight Dan O'Connor of Framingham, welterweight Demetrius Andrade of Providence , and superheavy Nate James of Malden. Andrade, whose bid for a third straight US title was halted by a medical disqualification in the semis, also will compete in this month's Pan American Games in Rio de Janeiro . . . Though the US males finished third in last weekend's gymnastics meet with Ukraine and Russia in Kiev, there was one bright spot -- Jonathan Horton outpointed European champion Maxim Deviatovski in the all-around . . . Things are looking up for the US men's volleyball team, which made the World League final for the first time in seven years. The Yanks, who were fourth in the Olympics but only 10th at last year's world championships, will meet host Poland and France in next week's prelims . . . Huge upset by the US beach volleyball duet of Jen Boss and April Ross, who became the lowest seed (29th) in 15 years to win an FIVB tour title when they prevailed in Norway over the weekend. "Unbelievable, but not unexpected," declared Boss, after she and her partner won despite dropping their first two pool matches after having to qualify . . . New coach for the US all-around speedskating team is Bart Veldkamp, the five-time Olympian and three-time medalist for the Netherlands and Belgium. "Bart gives us the swagger from the Netherlands," says federation executive director Bob Crowley . . . USA Water Polo, yearning to get back to the global podium, went back to its glory days by naming Terry Schroeder its Olympic men's coach. Schroeder, who competed in four Games, won silvers with both the 1984 and 1988 teams. He'll inherit a squad that was seventh in Athens and ninth at this year's world championships . . . Newest members of the Olympic family will be Tuvalu and Montenegro, bringing the total number of countries to 205. Montenegro, a former Yugoslav republic, has been competing alongside Serbia. Tuvalu, a collection of nine atolls that has fewer residents than any nation but the Vatican, once was a British protectorate.

John Powers can be reached at jpowers@globe.com; material from Olympic committees, international and domestic sports federations, interviews, and wire services was used in this report.