It'll be almost like being at home. The XXI Olympic Winter Games will begin in Vancouver two years from now, which means that the United States athletes will be able to go Greyhound, speak a version of their language (eh!), and eat familiar food. And while the Americans aren't likely to match the record 34 medals they won in Salt Lake City in 2002, they could well exceed the 25 they collected in Turin two years ago, which was by far their best effort at an overseas Games.
Once again, most of the haul should come in the ice sports, particularly from the prolific speedskaters, who grabbed 10 in 2006, and the snowboarders figure to rinse it again. The big bump this time could come from the skeleton sledders, who were shut out in Italy but could pick up several medals in Canada if they keep their noses to the ice.
As usual, the Germans will be the bunch to catch and the host Canucks, Austrians, Russians, and Norwegians will be in the chase pack. For the Yanks, the variables will be the mercurial Alpine skiers (will Bode Miller change his mind and show up?), short-tracker Apolo Anton Ohno, and the half-pipers, those random princes (and princesses) of midair. A sport-by-sport look at the prospects (US 2006 medals/2010 projected medals in parentheses):
FIGURE SKATING (2/2): Even though the Russians are a shadow of what they were two years ago and the Canadians have disappeared, getting back on the gold standard will be tough for the Americans, who didn't hear their anthem last time. If the Hello Kitty Generation (Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt) matures or former world champ Kimmie Meissner rights herself, the women at least should get a silver. So should dancers Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto, who did it in 2006. That could be all, though. Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir will be on the downside of their careers in 2010, when Wakefield's Stephen Carriere could be the man. And the pairs won't break the Chinese hammerlock. As the sport has become more aerial, the Asians are on the rise.
ICE HOCKEY (1/1): It could be a Canadian sweep, especially given home ice. The men, who went bust last time, now are world champions and they'll have their very best in uniform. Their women are unquestionably the best on the planet and have been for years. The US females were stung by the Swedes in Turin, but they're consistently No. 2 in the world and should be good for silver. Not so the men, who won one game in 2006 (from Team Borat) and haven't managed a medal at a foreign Games since Robbie Ftorek & Co. at Sapporo in 1972. At least they can take a bus to these Games, where they should make the medal round. If not, they'd better come home via the North Pole.
LONG-TRACK SPEEDSKATING (7/4): It wasn't a lucky 7 at Turin, it was earned. But with Joey Cheek gone, the US males don't have a top sprinter and the women, with J-Rod retired, have no contenders. Still, there's a good possibility for four medals with returning champions Shani Davis and Chad Hedrick. But most of the shiny stuff will go to the Dutch, Norwegians, and Koreans on the men's side and the Germans and Canadians on the women's.
SHORT-TRACK SPEEDSKATING (3/3): Now that he has danced with the stars, Ohno is primed to carry the load for a third time. He'll be a medal threat in all three individual races and should anchor the relay to a bronze. The women will be better with a healthy Halie Kim, Allison Baver, and rising star Katherine Reutter and could medal in the relay. But the Koreans and Chinese still will crowd everybody out. It's been their sport for a while now.
ALPINE SKIING (2/4): The two gold medals by Julia Mancuso and Ted Ligety aside, the US team didn't come close to its "Best in the World" slogan last time. Yet while the Austrians and their European playmates still own the slopes, the Americans are winning their share of medals. Miller and Lindsey Vonn are leading the World Cup standings for the first time since Phil Mahre and Tamara McKinney in 1983. Though Miller says he won't be back at Olympus, Vonn will be, as will Mancuso and Ligety. Barring bone and tissue mishaps, that could mean four medals, if the Yanks can perform up to their résumés.
FREESTYLE SKIING (1/1): The motherlode days - three golds in 1998 - are over for the United States. Toby Dawson's moguls bronze was the only medal in Turin and there's not likely to be much more next time, even with ski cross added to the program. The Australians, Chinese, Canadians, and French are the powers now. A bronze here and there would be a respectable haul.
SNOWBOARDING (7/6): Seven medals last time was insane, dude, but Uncle Sam's alternative nephews and nieces could come close again if the half-pipers decide it's not selling out to show up at Olympus. Shaun "The Flying Tomato" White, Hannah Teter, and Gretchen Bleiler, plus Seth Wescott, Lindsey Jacobellis, and Nate Holland in the snowboardcross, should be good for a podium sextet.
CROSS-COUNTRY SKIING (0/0): You can't tell it by the global medal count, but the Americans are kicking and gliding closer to the Scandinavians, Finns, Russians, Germans, and Italians. Kikkan Randall's women's World Cup victory this season was the first since Bill Koch's in 1983 and Andy Newell and Kris Freeman are closing the gap on the men's side. The Euros aren't yet fainting from fright, but it wouldn't be a shock to see a Yank on the sprint podium.
JUMPING (0/0): Not since 1924 has an American won a jumping medal at Olympus and Anders Haugen (born in Norway) got it at age 83 thanks to a scoring error. The US team barely cracked the top 40 last time, and now that Alan Alborn and Clint Jones have their feet back on the ground there's no chance, since the Americans don't have anyone on the World Cup circuit. The Austrians, Norwegians, and Finns will divvy up the spoils, as always.
NORDIC COMBINED (0/1): Uncle Sam never has won a medal in this ski-and-jump hybrid, but Bill Demong, who's sitting second in the World Cup standings, could snag a silver this time. The Germans, Finns, Norwegians, and French will grab most of what's available, but even one Yank on the podium would make history.
BIATHLON (0/0): The Germans and Russians (who else?) and the occasional Norwegian still dominate this stop-and-I'll-shoot game, but the Americans are creeping closer, at least on the men's side. Tim Burke and Jay Hakkinen both have cracked the top 10 at the world championships, but a medal is least another quadrennium away.
BOBSLED (1/1): Not much has changed since Turin. The Germans should win all three gold medals, with the Swiss, Russians, and Americans giving chase. Steve Holcomb, last year's World Cup champion, hasn't been up to that standard this winter, but he could win a medal. So could Shauna Rohbock, who took the women's silver last time.
LUGE (0/0): It'll be the German intramural championships, with the damen und herren favored to win all three events and sweep the women's. The Americans, who had two fourths and a flip after winning two medals in the double in Salt Lake, have been slip-sliding away ever since. They haven't made a World Cup podium all season and weren't in contention at the global championships.
SKELETON (0/4): After the 2006 wipeout and ugly headlines about doping and sexual harassment, the skeletors are back on track and could get three medals if they stay on the straight and narrow. Katie Uhlaender is the world's top woman and Noelle Pikus-Pace, the former global champ, will be coming off maternity leave. On the men's side, Zach Lund (he of the doping ban) and Eric Bernotas both could be on the medal stand.
CURLING (1/1): The Canadians still rule the sport of rocks-on-ice, but their neighbors belong on the podium. Todd Birr's bronze at last year's world championships, the first for the United States since 1993, proved the bronze at Turin wasn't a fluke. And after their shocking implosion last time, the American women are back in the global top four.
John Powers can be reached at jpowers@globe.com.
