Look deeper on homer totals
The long ball is dead. Long live the long ball.
You may want to rethink all that stuff you heard about the incredibly shrinking slugger and the reemergence of ''small ball" in the wake of steroid testing in baseball. The home run has not exactly retreated from the game; on the contrary, it appears that Major League Baseball officials, from Bud Selig on down, were correct in attributing the dropoff earlier in the season to lousy weather, and not some major market correction brought on by players suddenly coming clean.
''The last time I looked, home run rates were down, but they were within the normal range of fluctuation," Bill James, senior baseball operations adviser for the Red Sox, wrote in an e-mailed response to a question. ''Home run rates dropped by 11 percent between 2000 and 2002, for example, with essentially no comment on the subject from anyone. But a smaller drop in home run rates this year had drawn unwarranted comment, because people were looking to see what the effects of the steroid testing would be, and thus interpreted as meaningful a decrease that was very probably random and meaningless."
The numbers speak for themselves:
The average number of home runs hit per game is 1.012, slightly down from 2004 (1.123) but comparable to 2002 (1.043). Runs per game also are slightly down from last season (4.628 to 4.814) but slightly above 2002. Doubles per game are very close to last season (1.828 this season, 1.837 in '04) and ahead of 2003 (1.793). The slugging percentage of .419 is less than last season (.428) but ahead of '02 (.417). And given recent trends, as the weather has warmed up, the gap between last season and this one could become virtually nonexistent.
Right now, teams are on pace to hit 4,958 home runs, which would be a drop of almost 500 since last season (5,451) and 735 from the sluggers' paradise season of 2,000 (5,693). But this month, teams are on pace to hit 861 home runs, which would be more than the 857 hit last June.
Last season, eight players hit 40 or more home runs, led by Adrian Beltre, who hit 48 for the Dodgers. This season, there were 12 players as of yesterday who had hit 18 or more home runs, a 40-homer pace, led by Andruw Jones of the Braves, who hit his 23d yesterday.
In 2003, 10 players hit 40 or more, and there were eight who hit 40 or more in 2002, including two with 50, Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome. In 2001, the year that Barry Bonds set the major league record with 73 home runs, Sammy Sosa hit 64, Luis Gonzalez (57) and A-Rod (52) broke 50, and 10 players hit 40. So, while there is no one challenging the stratosphere occupied by Bonds and Sosa at one time, the number of 40-homer players has remained pretty constant.
The same applies if you make the cutoff 30. There were, as of yesterday, 28 players with at least 14 home runs, which puts them on pace to hit 31, and an additional five players with 13, who are on a pace to hit 29. Last season, 33 players hit 30 or more; the number was 30 in 2003, 26 in '02, and 33 in '01.
Some baseball people have opined that, sure, the game will always have a top echelon of sluggers, but where you notice the difference is in the guys who muscle up to hit 20-25 home runs. Again, the numbers don't bear that out. There are 54 players on pace to hit 25 or more home runs this season, and 86 on pace to hit at least 20. Last season, 56 players hit 25 and 83 hit 20.
Last season, five American League teams, including the Red Sox, hit 200 home runs, led by the White Sox and Yankees with 242 apiece. The same number of National League teams hit 200, led by the Cubs with 235. This season, five AL teams are on pace to hit 200, led by the Rangers, who are on pace for a club-record 257. Two NL teams are on pace for 200, led by the Reds, who are on pace for 209.
Marketing strategies are in midseason form
The Jason Schmidt-to-the-Red Sox rumors refuse to die, though indications are that the Sox have not pushed for the Giants ace, who has strung together 17 scoreless innings after getting off to a rocky start that included a shoulder strain. Schmidt's velocity has been down -- much like Carl Pavano of the Yankees, who has given up 16 home runs -- but he touched 95 in his last start and had plenty of juice in the late innings.
One major league executive insisted that the Sox, intent on moving Bronson Arroyo to the pen and still uncertain how long it will take Curt Schilling to regain his form, and the White Sox, who just placed Orlando Hernandez on the disabled list and are not sure that young Brandon McCarthy is ready to do the job, are both in on Schmidt, and each has kids who might interest the Giants. The Yankees, with Jaret Wright and Kevin Brown both on the DL, also could get in the picture. The Orioles are another team that would likely have interest, though injuries may finally be taking their toll on the Birds.
Sammy Sosa hasn't helped the Baltimore cause. Sosa was just 1 for 16 in Toronto last week, his average is down to .246, and his swing is so bad ''you could time it with an hourglass," said one scout. The most stunning aspect of Sosa's performance this season is that he has only two home runs in 98 at-bats in cozy Camden Yards.
More trade talk: The Braves, who have turned to Chris Reitsma to close, would be willing to move Danny Kolb, who might benefit from a change of scenery. Scouts are tracking Toronto pitchers Miguel Batista, who will likely command a salary in the $5 million range, and lefty Ted Lilly; the Jays will also listen to offers for second baseman Orlando Hudson, with rookie Aaron Hill showing he is ready. The Twins could have interest in Hudson. Joe Kennedy and Jason Jennings are starters who could be available from Colorado, though Jennings is one of the few pitchers who has shown he can win in Coors Field. Danys Baez of the Rays and Jose Mesa of the Pirates are other relievers available. Tom Gordon's name surprisingly has emerged as a potential trading chip for the Yankees, who would like to upgrade in center field as well as boost their pitching.
Dwelling on strikeouts may miss the point
David Eckstein of the Cardinals comes into the weekend having missed on only 4 percent of the swings he has taken this season (20 of 504), the lowest percentage in the majors. Marco Scutaro of the A's had the lowest percentage in the AL (7.1 percent, 24 of 339), while Bill Mueller has the lowest percentage on the Sox, 10.1 percent (36 of 358).
On the other end of the spectrum is Mark Bellhorn, who has the fourth-worst percentage in the league, 29.7 percent (124 of 415), though he still lags considerably behind league leader Richie Sexson of the Mariners, who swings and misses 35.2 percent of the time (173 of 491).
Bellhorn's strikeouts continue to be source of consternation; he began the weekend with 81, one behind Sexson's 82, which leads the majors. Pitchers should consider it a mandate to throw a first-pitch strike to Bellhorn; he's batting .264 when it's 1 and 0, .168 when a pitcher gets ahead with strike one. Bellhorn is batting .093 when the count gets to 0 and 2, but he's also batting just .093 (10 for 107) with the count either 2 and 2 or 3 and 2.
There is a school of thought that argues that a strikeout has no more negative a connotation than any other out. Here's stat analyst Bill James on the topic: ''Nobody says that strikeouts are a good thing for a hitter. Strikeouts are a bad thing for a hitter. However, teams that strike out an above-average amount tend to be good teams, because strikeouts are a traveling companion of two positives: walks and home runs.
''Players who strike out a lot also tend to hit home runs. Players who strike out a lot also tend to draw walks. The value of the home runs and walks, in some cases -- certainly not in all cases -- outweighs the cost of the strikeouts. I think that you have to evaluate a player by what he does do, not by what he doesn't do, because you can't build a winning team out of the things that players don't do. If a player gets on base, scores runs, drives in runs, plays good defense, you can live with a lot of strikeouts as a part of the package."
Etc.
Old reliable
The freak of nature that is Roger Clemens continues to astound. After he beat the Rockies last week, Clemens's earned run average was a major league-leading 1.51, the lowest of his career after 15 starts. Clemens's record is only 6-3, but that's because the Astros have scored just 43 runs in his 15 starts, though that trend is changing. After scoring just 18 runs in his first 11 starts, the Astros have scored 25 in his last four, with six or more in each of those starts. Since the start of the 2001 season, Clemens has a record of 74-25, a winning percentage of .747 that is the best in the majors. Pedro Martinez is .0003 behind (65-22), followed by Johan Santana (48-18, .727) and Curt Schilling (75-30, .714). And what Clemens is doing at his age is unprecedented. Cy Young, who pitched in the dead ball era, is the only pitcher in big-league history with a sub-2 ERA at 40 or older (he had a 1.99 ERA at 40 in 1907, and a 1.26 ERA at 41 the following year). But no pitcher of Clemens's age (42) has ever had a sub-2 ERA. Young was at 2.26 in 1909. The lowest ERA by a 40-plus pitcher in the last 63 years was 2.42 by Ted Lyons of the White Sox in 1942.
Giant killers
Words you never thought you'd hear from the lips of Derek Jeter: ''It looks like Tampa has our number this year." That was after the Devil Rays took three of four from the Yankees last week, the loss coming when they blew a 10-2 lead in a game in which the Yankees scored 13 runs in the eighth inning. Tampa Bay is 7-3 overall against the Yankees, its most wins ever against New York. The D-Rays, who matched the post-1900 record for worst road start in history at 4-28, are 4-2 in Yankee Stadium, 4-27 everywhere else on the road. Against the rest of the AL East, they're 4-14. They're hitting .318 against the Yankees and have scored 74 runs, a stunning 7.4 per game.
Grand achievement
Jeter hit his first career grand slam against the Cubs last week. He had gone 154 plate appearances with the bases loaded without a slam, and had more home runs without a slam (156) than any other active player. The new leaders, according to researcher Bill Arnold, are Alex Gonzalez of the D-Rays, who has 132 home runs, and David Bell of the Phillies, who has the most at-bats with the bases loaded without a slam, 132. Jason Varitek of the Sox is closing in on Bell, with 116 at-bats without a slam. He whiffed with the bases loaded in Cleveland last week.
Central dispatch
Eastern elitists won't believe this, but the best division in the American League could be the Central. The White Sox entered the weekend with the best record in the majors, and three other teams were above .500 -- the Twins, Indians, and Tigers, who had won seven of eight and could be sending out slugger Magglio Ordonez, who has yet to play after undergoing hernia surgery, for a rehab assignment this week. ''I'm like a bullfighter," Ordonez said. ''If the bulls don't kill me, I'll be back." The White Sox, off to the best start in franchise history, had the AL's best home record (26-10), the best road record (23-12), and are 23-5 in their division. The top four teams in the Central (Kansas City is excused from this conversation) were 40-24 in interleague play, 26-23 vs. AL East teams, and 30-26 vs. the AL West.
Bucks for Bochy
Add another manager to the list of Terry Francona's peers who has gotten an extension while Francona works with an under-market contract. Bruce Bochy of the Padres finally signed off on an extension that will take him through the 2007 season. The Sox hold an option on Francona's three-year deal for 2007, but it is for around $700,000, less than half what Bochy is believed to have gotten with the Padres.
No escape
It was a victory of sorts for Jorge Sosa of the Braves when he faced the Marlins Thursday. Sosa was facing Carlos Delgado, who in five consecutive plate appearances against Sosa last season hit home runs, then doubled when he saw him on Opening Day this season. No home runs Thursday night for Delgado, but, unfortunately for Sosa, he was taken deep twice by the man batting in front of Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, who went 4 for 5 with 6 RBIs in an 8-0 Braves loss.
Material from personal interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report. 
