St. Louis holds the best cards in this game
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Twelve (12) teams are still reasonably alive in the major league baseball playoff hunt. That does not include the Nationals, or anyone other than the Padres in the NL West. The Nats have to jump over too many teams, and the Padres can't blow their lead to the rest of those slugs in their division, and that's that.
But just because 12 teams are alive doesn't mean 12 teams can win. And just because some team has a better regular-season record than another doesn't mean it can't win. More than ever, there are playoff teams and playoff teams, if you know what I mean.
Let us identify the contenders and the pretenders.
NO WAY JOSE
12. San Diego
The relentlessly mediocre Padres have no chance. Let's establish that right away.
Here's what they have going for them: Jake Peavy. OK, two things. I've got to say something nice about Trevor Hoffman, who has done nothing to mess up his Hall of Fame resume with 39 saves in 41 attempts.
That's about it. Peavy (12-7, 2.98) is one of the premier starting pitchers in baseball, but for the Padres to do anything in this postseason he would have to become the 1988 Orel Hershiser, and I don't think that's about to happen. This is one time the Bill Parcells theory is correct. The Padres are exactly what their record says they are: a win-one, lose-one team of no real consequence.
P.S. If they were nice, they'd lend Dave Roberts back to the Sawx for the next few weeks.
11. Philadelphia
The NL's perennial underachievers play in a ludicrously cozy pitch-and-putt ballpark and still have hit 103 fewer homers than the Texas Rangers. I'm still working on that one.
On paper, it's a pretty nice lineup, one that hardly misses the injured Jim Thome because rookie first baseman Ryan Howard has been as good as advertised (18 homers, 50 RBIs in 269 at-bats). Pat Burrell has bounced back nicely (111 RBIs) and Bobby Abreu, though streaky, has had another nice Bobby Abreu year. Apparently, manager Charlie Manuel has had something to do with it. That amazes me. The Phils have a quality closer in Billy Wagner, but they aren't constructed for the postseason otherwise.
10. Chicago
Doesn't it warm the heart when a hunch pays off? I could never figure out how the White Sox were doing it when they were doing it, and now they are no longer doing it, and won't be doing it again. They did have excellent first-half pitching, but Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle have become mortal again and Jose Contreras is likewise losing it. They never had much of an offense. And the manager was always an issue. Ozzie Guillen was just too visible and too quotable for his own good.
9. Oakland
They're good, but not that good. They're always a great story because of the payroll and the whole Billy Beane thing, but it's a lineup good pitching can deal with, and there are just too many young pitchers being thrust into key spots. You wonder when it will ever change and if they already have had their best opportunities to win. They shoulda/coulda/woulda beaten the Yankees and Red Sox in years past, and this team is nowhere near as good as those clubs. Just making it would be a major achievement this time.
MAYBE
8. Atlanta
Can we simply put the GM and the skipper in the Hall of Fame right now? And the pitching coach makes three. The Braves are hanging around again, and while there is very little likelihood of them winning it all, the fact that a team with 16? 116? 1,116,616? rookies at one time or another being a division champion for the 14th time in succession is as amazing as any baseball story we've seen all year. They've also done it this time without a reliable closer. There would be worse things for us to watch than John Smoltz and Tim Hudson getting hot and dragging the Braves into the World Series. I have no sentimental NL attachment. That would be all right with me.
7. Angels
There is a sense of rightness -- not righteousness, rightness -- about this team. Bartolo Colon can be a big-time starter and they really do know how to play. Vlad Guerrero is a mighty force. K-Rod is imposing. Most of all, Mike Scioscia is as impressive a manager as there is in baseball. If they get in, I think they'll give a good account of themselves.
6. Boston
Did you enjoy October 17-27, 2004? Good. So did I. Got your DVDs handy to relive the excitement? Great. You'll probably need them. How much more evidence does anyone need to recognize that even if the Red Sox stumble into the postseason, they are not constructed for playoff success? It's more than the simple fact that I can't name one team since the 1960 Pirates that bashed its way to the big prize. The team also has a shortstop problem that won't go away. Now here's a bit of good news. Francisco Rodriguez didn't make his major league debut until Sept. 18, 2002. He then went on to win five games in the postseason. Craig Hansen made his major league debut on Sept. 19, 2005. Hey, it happened once . . .
5. New York
When Bubba Crosby hits a walkoff homer, it could be that something is in the air. But the Yankees couldn't go far in the postseason with Aaron Small, Chien-Ming Wang, and Shawn Chacon anchoring the rotation . . . could they? Admit it. They scare you. If you're a Red Sox fan, you don't want Derek Jeter up, you don't want Gary Sheffield up (on two, one, or no legs), you don't want A-Rod up, you don't want Hideki Matsui up, you don't want Jason Giambi up, and you don't even want Bernie Williams up. Then there's always Mariano Rivera, who hasn't been too bad since that early-season business. Attention must be paid.
A RIGHT TO DREAM
4. Houston
You know about Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt, but did you know that Andy Pettitte is 13-2, 1.56 in 18 starts since June 20? Are you aware of this Willy Taveras kid and his 66 (at least) infield hits? This all sounds '66 Dodgerish to me (kids, ask your dad and Uncle Joe what I'm talking about). As Sam Goldwyn would say, it would be better for everyone else in the NL to include the Astros out.
3. Florida
You need only three starters to get it done (two, actually), and the Marlins have the three in MEP (Most Exciting Player) Dontrelle Willis, A.J. Burnett, and Josh Beckett. They have Carlos Delgado (109 RBIs), Miguel Cabrera (111 RBIs), Juan Encarnacion, and a revived Mike Lowell. If Juan Pierre ever had a series or two, they could win it all.
2. Cleveland
They score runs, they catch the ball, and they have the most underrated pitching in baseball. And somewhere back in the middle of the summer, they were sprinkled with magic dust. They would enter the postseason with the distinction of being the American League's most complete team. You may say that, like their '90s predecessors, they still lack the dominant starter, and I would say that I could see mammoth C.C. Sabathia becoming a major star in the postseason. I don't know if I really believe that, but I could say that.
THEIRS TO LOSE
1. St. Louis
The preseason division lock de tutti locks did exactly what everyone said they should do by wrapping up the NL Central crown with two weeks to play. They have done it with strong starting pitching -- Chris Carpenter can clear a spot on the mantel for the Cy Young plaque right now -- and by doing all those textbooky things to score runs. It also helps to have the frightening Albert Pujols on your side. If and when the Cards get to the World Series, you think they won't be supremely motivated to prove that the '04 batting meltdown in Games 2, 3, and 4 was a bizarre, celestially orchestrated trick?
Frankly, it's the Cards against the field. Tony La Russa had better win this one.
Bob Ryan is a Globe columnist. His e-mail address is ryan@globe.com. 
