This year, nobody's perfect

When you dissect and analyze 30 teams, you come away with one emphatic conclusion: There isn't one great team in baseball this season.

There will be a team or two that gets hot at the right time (as the Cardinals did last season) and a team or two that should do well that goes cold at the wrong time (as the Mets did last season). Much like last season, one of these not-so-great teams may wind up winning the World Series.

"All of the teams are fallible," said Giants general manager Brian Sabean. "You look in the American League and you see that Boston has a really good record, and you have to consider that when you're making an assessment like that. As we've found out twice -- 2000 and 2003 -- you can be the best team, the favored team, but you're not going to necessarily be the team that wins it all."

Sabean is correct in using the word "fallible." Boston may be the best team in the American League, but how much confidence is there that the offense will come up with timely hitting and consistency when needed? Will playoff-caliber pitching shut down the Boston lineup? If the Yankees are the best team in the AL since the All-Star break, what about that bullpen? They have youth in Joba Chamberlain and perhaps the greatest closer the game has ever seen in Mariano Rivera, but it looks as if he's gone through a dead-arm stage. The Yankees have had so many peaks and valleys, how is it possible to look at them as a potentially great team?

From a national perspective, there was belief that Detroit would be that "Holy cow!" (in memory of Phil Rizzuto) team. But with major injuries to Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, and Fernando Rodney at various stages of the season, the Tigers haven't taken anyone's breath away.

Many thought the Mets might the best team in the National League. They were last season, until the Cardinals got hot. Now the Mets are battling for the NL East with Philadelphia and Atlanta, two other good but flawed teams.

In the NL Central, the clock appears to be striking midnight for the Cinderella Brewers, who fell out of the division lead Friday night, while the Cubs have been able to use the depth produced by their payroll to overcome a slow start.

The NL West is becoming a survival of the fittest. The Dodgers have fallen badly, mostly because of injuries, the Padres need offense, and the Diamondbacks, who have allowed more runs than they've scored, have the lead.

Do we dare say "parity"? An AL official told me to bite my tongue.

"It's parity, but not NFL parity," he said. "How can you have parity when Boston and New York spend all of that money? They should be head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in baseball. They aren't, because they haven't spent all of that money wisely.

"In baseball, you can be a rich team with all the best players, and even if you make a mistake or two, you can throw money at it to repair it. The small-market teams can't afford a mistake. If there's parity, it's because the rich teams are making mistakes and keeping other teams in the race."

Under this system, the Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Cubs should be the best teams. But their performances do not leave you with that impression.

"Great teams don't have any concerns, and every team out there has a concern," said former Toronto manager Buck Martinez, now in the Orioles broadcast booth. "I will say this, Boston has fewer concerns than the rest of them, but their concern is Big Papi and Manny [Ramírez] not having the years they're accustomed to.

"It's hard to find a team that's not flawed. The Angels, I will say, have the type of team that can play well in the postseason because they beat your No. 1's and 2's [starters] because they can beat you in different ways and they can manufacture runs. The Mets are flawed because both Carloses [Delgado and Beltran] aren't swinging the bat well. Their catcher [Paul LoDuca] is hurt."

The Braves added thump with Mark Teixeira, so the struggling Andruw Jones can bat seventh. With John Smoltz and Tim Hudson and a decent bullpen, the Braves have a chance.

The Cardinals have had the worst starting staff in baseball, but guess what. They're coming on strong with Mark Mulder making a rehab start and ready to return in September and Sox reject Joel Piñeiro pitching very well for them.

The Rockies are an AL lineup playing in the NL. If they could add a David Wells to give them five good innings per game, it would go far.

While the pennant races promise to be tight and tough down to the finish -- which should translate into excitement -- they will not feature a great team or a clear-cut favorite.

Gauging the Rocket's impact

Those closest to him will tell you that this season has been the toughest on Roger Clemens physically. While last year he had the World Baseball Classic to help him prepare for his half-season, this time he had to grind it out a little more.

Which raises the question: At age 45, will this finally be his last season?

In polling a few people close to him, none of them knew for sure; as longtime agent and friend Randy Hendricks said, "It's way too early to go through that process with Roger. He's really focused on finishing strong and leading the Yankees to a championship right now. I think he feels good about that right now and he'd like nothing better."

But if you can read tea leaves, body language, and tones of voice, the feeling would be that this is it.

Was he worth the pro-rated $28 million? Clemens is 5-5 with a 3.92 ERA; the Yankees are 6-8 in his starts. But they were 29-31 when Clemens first toed the rubber June 9; they're 40-23 since.

"There's no question his presence has added a confidence in our room," said catcher Jorge Posada. "Because of who he is. Because of the knowledge he's been able to help some of the younger guys with and our entire pitching staff, yes, he's made a huge impact on our team.

"But we knew that would happen. We went through a lot of pitchers early in the season and we knew with Roger he would give us that steady veteran presence and just calm things down. That's happened for us."

The Yankees will also tell you that his recent five-game suspension helped rather than hurt the team. Clemens threw at Toronto outfielder Alex Rios in the seventh inning Aug. 7, in retaliation for Alex Rodriguez being hit in the third inning. Suspension or no suspension, that caused a bonding and strengthening of team unity.

Beane turns A's hardship into a season of discovery

A few questions for Oakland general manager Billy Beane:

How strange has it been not to be in the race at this time of the year?

BB: "Under the circumstances of all that we've been through, having 19 players go on the DL, using 50 different players . . . to be honest, we're pleased we've done as well as we have. It could have been a lot worse. It's all relative, I guess, but to some extent it's actually been fun. It's been satisfying to be able to rotate the players we've had to bring in, and challenging at times just finding bodies to fill out our roster."

It must be satisfying to have discovered a kid like Jack Cust through this ordeal?

BB: "He's a guy we had before but we were never able to give him proper at-bats to allow him to show us how good he could be. Based on his minor league numbers, he should have had that chance. When Mike [ Piazza] went down, we went out and made the deal with San Diego and we decided based on what was going on with our team, we'd give him the chance. And you've seen what he's done. Projected over a full year, he'd be a 30-home run, 100-RBI guy. That's pretty impressive. But to find a Jack Cust -- that's pretty special for your organization. Scouting is so sophisticated now that you don't find that surprise player anymore."

It had to have been a trying year for Bob Geren in his first season.

BB: "I don't think Bob has ever had a day where he hasn't been thankful coming to the ballpark as a big league manager. He's had a blast. Bob is the eternal optimist. He loves being a major league manager. This is what he's waited his whole life for. He's got a great energy about him. I think he's having the time of his life."

You released Bobby Kielty a while back; can you talk about why?

BB: "We were going to start playing younger guys based on how our season was going, and Bobby had been injured, and when he came back, Shannon Stewart was having a fine season and this was an opportunity to give our younger players like Travis Buck a chance to get some swings. I've always been a Bobby Kielty fan. He can really rake against lefthanded pitching."

Will Rich Harden pitch this year?

BB: "He's one of our starters that we haven't seen much this season. It's been frustrating for Rich. He's had the minor impingement in the shoulder and we're hoping he can pitch for us again soon."

Etc.

Touching the bases
Apropos of nothing: 1. Yankees president Randy Levine informed me that, contrary to what I wrote in this space last week, he does have an office at Yankee Stadium and uses it regularly. 2. Better develop your own starting pitchers. This winter's free agent class: Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jason Jennings, and Joe Kennedy. 3. Have no idea how Charlie Manuel has kept the Phillies in contention. Give that man a contract extension. 4. Commenting on Diamondbacks TV about phenom Justin Upton's triple, Mark Grace said, "I hadn't seen anyone run like that since Bo Jackson." 5. Gotta love the story of Lance Niekro, who wasn't able to make it as a major league first baseman and is now trying to follow his dad's footsteps as a knuckleball pitcher.

Weaving his way back
Much is made in New England about Tim Wakefield’s ups and downs, but there’s no streakier pitcher than Seattle’s Jeff Weaver. You’ll remember last season he was released in June by the

Angels after going 3-10 with a 6.29 ERA, but he hooked on in St. Louis, where he was one of the steadiest pitchers and also won the clinching game of the World Series against the Tigers. When he signed with Seattle this winter, this correspondent joined the chorus of doubters questioning why he would leave the comfort of the National League. He started 0-6 with a 14.32 ERA, then went on the disabled list. But guess what. Weaver seems to be pulling off a turnaround similar to last season’s. In his last 13 starts, he is 5-4 with a 3.25 ERA and looking like a dependable starter for Seattle’s wild-card run.

Catch of the day
Jorge Posada has the world by the pinstripes. He'll be a free agent catcher coming off an excellent offensive and defensive season, showing signs of improving at age 35. Posada will likely re-sign with the Yankees, but the rival Mets will be bidding as well. The free agent class of catchers will include Paul LoDuca, Jason Kendall, Damian Miller, Rod Barajas, and Mike Piazza (who can't really catch). The Tigers have an option on Pudge Rodriguez and would have to have a screw loose not to pick it up. Posada, who already earns $12 million, is going to add to that for sure. The only issue will be length of contract.

Brewers manager Ned Yost has had the patience of Job with lefthander Chris Capuano. The Springfield native is 0-10 with a 6.66 ERA over a 15-game stretch in which the Brewers went 0-15. Since being named to the All-Star team last year, Capuano is 6-18 with a 5.20 ERA. Yost keeps referring to the 28-year-old as "an All-Star," apparently to give him positive reinforcement. "We've seen what he can do when he's got it together, and we believe if we stick with him, he'll get it together again," said Yost. "We need for that to happen."

With the signing of top pick David Price (six years, $11.25 million, with a $5.6 million signing bonus), the Devils Rays will have in the not-too-distant future a threesome of Price, Scott Kazmir (23 years old), and James Shield (25). If Edwin Jackson, 23, could straighten himself out, which he has of late, that's four superb young arms. If the D-Rays had pulled the trigger and dealt the oft-injured Rocco Baldelli for pitching, they'd be even closer. Youthful GM Andrew Friedman has at least identified what needs to be done in his high-payroll division. Now he has to execute and inch the Rays toward .500.

Some close to the Orioles feel that with the right tweaks to the lineup and the continued promise of the pitching staff, Baltimore could take a big leap next season. Dave Trembley, who has managed more than 2,800 minor league games and holds a master's degree in education, has been a very good teacher as interim manager, and new boss Andy McPhail may reward him by retaining him. The Orioles will try to move Miguel Tejada in the offseason and add a dependable outfielder.

Carlos Guillen can still hit, but his legs are fading at shortstop, which is why you're seeing him at first base more and more. The Tigers have been trying to get Jack Wilson from Pittsburgh but haven't been able to work out a deal for the past few weeks. Wilson has cleared waivers.

Bud Selig's decision not to punish Jason Giambi after he came clean about steroid use may encourage other former users to come forth. Giambi has proven, in Selig's eyes, that he's rebounded from his indiscretions in the form of charitable endeavors and work with children. Said a major league official, "I think it would be nice if others admitted to their mistakes so things could come out ahead of the Mitchell report. If you do admit things, as we've seen in this case, the truth shall set you free."

Daisuke Matsuzaka obviously misses the once-a-week pitching schedule in Japan. According to Stats Inc., he's 5-6 with a 4.56 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 79 innings on four days' rest. On five days' rest, he's 7-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 78 innings.

Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com