Crystal ball
With the All-Star break upon us, a look ahead to what the second half may look like for the 30 major league teams
AL
2. Boston Red Sox: The Sox are pretty content with their play given the loss of David Ortiz since May 31, no Curt Schilling all season, a slumping Jason Varitek, and an inconsistent bullpen. So far, the Sox have stayed away from major deals, passing on CC Sabathia and Rich Harden. It appears they'll focus on veteran bullpen help - preferably a lefthander such as Brian Fuentes, Damaso Marte, or Ron Mahay. They could also address future catching, and current help at shortstop.
3. New York Yankees: The Yankees lost 60 percent of their starting rotation (Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy) to injuries, but have received huge lifts from Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina, a great season from Johnny Damon, and the successful conversion of Joba Chamberlain to a starter. So, now what? GM Brian Cashman is being backed by ownership and is not mortgaging the future. The Yankees are good enough to make a run at a playoff spot, but they would need a lefthanded starter (Jarrod Washburn?), another righthanded bat (Ty Wigginton?), and a reliever (Brian Fuentes?) to make it work. They also have a tough schedule after the break, going up against the A's, Twins (twice), Red Sox, Angels (twice), and Rangers through mid-August.
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Without question one of the most disappointing teams in the league. The Jays have pitched well, as expected, with Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay with sub-3.00 ERAs and Jesse Litsch with an 8-6 record. But what turmoil. Manager John Gibbons was fired, GM J.P. Ricciardi is under fire. Frank Thomas was released. Vernon Wells got hurt - twice. The Jays will likely sell off Matt Stairs, a good lefthanded bat, and will listen to offers for A.J. Burnett, though he has a no-trade provision to 15 teams. Burnett has two years remaining on a contract at $12 million per that he can opt out of after this season.
5. Baltimore Orioles: For a team that sold off Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard, the Orioles managed to stay above .500 for most of the first half. Nice seasons by Aubrey Huff (18 homers, 58 RBIs), George Sherrill (28 saves), and rookie reliever Jim Johnson. The Orioles have key players who would interest contending teams. Brian Roberts would be considered in a big payoff of prospects, though in-season might not be the time for it. It's more likely that Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, and Huff could be dealt.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins probably never thought they'd be in position for the wild card. A very solid all-around team, Minnesota probably won't do a lot at the trading deadline because it won't want to deal prospects. One move that could arise is dealing veteran righthander Livan Hernandez for young players. The Twins are trying to get lefthander Francisco Liriano (pitching well at Triple A Rochester) into the rotation, but there's no room at the moment.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Tigers were hardly the juggernaut most of baseball thought they'd be for most of the first half, when they started 2-10 overall, and 11-21 in their division. About $30.5 million in payroll isn't even on the active roster - Magglio Ordoñez ($15 million) and Jeremy Bonderman ($8.5 million) are on the disabled list and Dontrelle Willis ($7 million) is in the minors. The Tigers might be buyers for now, feeling they can't quit on their all-or-nothing approach. They emptied their farm system in the Miguel Cabrera/Willis deal with Florida (Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin) and in the Edgar Renteria (what a bust) deal with Atlanta (Jair Jurrjens) so not much is left.
4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are still building for a better day, but they have a few chips that would be attractive to teams looking to buy - second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, outfielder David DeJesus, and lefthanded reliever Ron Mahay. Teams will try to obtain Zack Greinke, but no chance. Look for a good dose of Billy Butler, their top hitting prospect, in the second half.
5. Cleveland Indians: The Indians already have fallen off the cliff, but at least lefthander Cliff Lee is in line to become the Tribe's first 20-game winner since Gaylord Perry in 1974. Outfielder Grady Sizemore is worth watching, already a 20-20 player, but the rest of them? Injuries to Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner have ruined the Indians' season. Already having dealt CC Sabathia for four prospects, you see where the Indians are headed. Third baseman Casey Blake, outfielder Dave Dellucci, and infielder Jamey Carroll could be going elsewhere. Blake and Carroll were part of a deal with the Dodgers for Sabathia that fell through.
2. Oakland A's: The perpetual rebuilding continues. Joe Blanton could be the next guy traded. With the team 3 1/2 games out, GM Billy Beane sold off Rich Harden, figuring with all the injuries (the A's used the DL 18 times in the first half), there was an unrealistic chance of good things happening. The A's were far better than anyone thought, and have the best ERA in the majors. Dana Eveland, rookie Greg Smith, and All-Star Justin Duchscherer (this guy is amazing) have pitched very well. Rookie outfielders Ryan Sweeney (acquired in the Nick Swisher trade) and Carlos Gonzalez (in the Dan Haren trade) are decent players. Second-year catcher Kurt Suzuki has been solid.
3. Texas Rangers: Now, this is Nolan Ryan's team. While he has the hitters - Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, David Murphy, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young - he needs a pitching staff. The Rangers have given up Armando Galarraga, John Danks, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Duchscherer in recent years. They have had the highest rotation ERA in the league. It appears they'll try to sell off veterans such as Frank Catalanotto and Hank Blalock, and perhaps even Bradley, to stock up on prospects they can use for pitching-rich deals in the offseason.
4. Seattle Mariners: After clearing out the manager (John McLaren) and GM (Bill Bavasi), and with talk of the owner selling, the Mariners are going to have a different look next season. Richie Sexson has finally been released, while Erik Bedard has been injury-prone and ordinary. Everyone is available in trade except Felix Hernandez, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, and Ichiro Suzuki, and some teams may want Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez.
NL
2. New York Mets: They have already made four West Coast trips, and there will be interesting season-ending home series against the Cubs (four games) and Marlins (three). A key could be Pedro Martínez remaining healthy (he left yesterday's start with shoulder tightness) and productive to go with Johan Santana, as well as the continued success of Mike Pelfrey. The Mets need a significant righthanded bat and could use more relief help.
3. Florida Marlins: They have overachieved given their limited resources, but they do have nice building blocks in Hanley Ramírez and Dan Uggla, and a talented, young rotation. The Marlins would love to deal for a catching prospect or fast center fielder. If they fall out of contention, they will likely sell off first baseman Mike Jacobs, outfielder Cody Ross, and closer Kevin Gregg.
4. Atlanta Braves: They are 5-22 in one-run games and 13-32 on the road. Injuries to John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Mike Hampton have made winning the division a mighty undertaking. It doesn't appear they'll be able to re-sign free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira, so he will be a major part of their thought process in the coming weeks. If they fight on, they'll seek a righthanded power bat and use corner outfielder Brandon Jones or shortstop Brent Lillibridge as bargaining chips.
5. Washington Nationals: Injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, and Chad Cordero, and poor seasons by the likes of Felipe Lopez and several relievers made for one of the ugliest first halves you'll see. The second half will likely feature mostly youngsters. Paul Lo Duca, Lopez, Odalis Perez, and Tim Redding could be shipped off.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: Old friend Gabe Kapler put it best in an e-mail: "The addition of CC [Sabathia] gives us the ability to match up with any two starters in baseball. No doubt, Harden does the same for the Cubs. Bottom line, baseball is not played on paper, so only time will tell." GM Doug Melvin hasn't effectively replaced closer Francisco Cordero, so his next move should be for a reliever.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: Tony La Russa isn't shy about putting heat on his GM to add a pitcher, but John Mozeliak is confident Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter will be sufficient when they return from injuries. The Cardinals are in the thick of this and nobody has done a better managing or coaching job this year than La Russa and Dave Duncan. Let's see if La Russa gets his way. St. Louis also needs a lefthanded reliever and could use pitchers Anthony Reyes and Brad Thompson and outfielder Chris Duncan as trade bait.
4. Cincinnati Reds: They will be trying to sell off high-priced veterans such as Adam Dunn ($13 million), Ryan Freel, and maybe Bronson Arroyo. Also don't be surprised if they move righthander Homer Bailey, their No. 1 pick in 2004, who hasn't cut it. The Reds are looking to rebuild, and a young catcher is atop their wish list.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: They've had a nice offensive year, and they have some players they can sell off for prospects. One guy teams want is lefthanded reliever Damaso Marte, a free agent after the season (though the team has a $6 million option). Jason Bay is a coveted righthanded bat and corner outfielder, and shortstop Jack Wilson (Dodgers?) and lefthanded reliever John Grabow could also be had, but the Pirates are under no pressure to trade them as all are under control through 2009. The Pirates would be willing to take on a large salary if the player could help them beyond this year.
6. Houston Astros: Owner Drayton McLane can't like what he's seen this season, particularly the ugly Shawn Chacon-Ed Wade incident. Does he want to use the second half to sell off players and build for '09, or go with the flow and hope for a miracle? Who knows. Mark Loretta and Darin Erstad could be sold off. The Yankees and Dodgers could use a multipurpose infielder such as Ty Wigginton. It would appear the big boys - Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt, all of whom have no-trade provisions - aren't going anywhere, though Oswalt could be convinced.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Joe Torre's calm nature helped bring this team back and it will likely help LA win the division. If owner Frank McCourt did nix the CC Sabathia deal, he was probably right. Pitching is not LA's problem. This has been a pathetic offense, but it seems to be getting better and there's some optimism that Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra, both off the DL, will provide a second-half boost. Losing Rafael Furcal was a big blow, so acquiring an everyday shortstop could be in the offing. The Dodgers have the chips for any deal.
3. San Francisco Giants: Barry Zito and Matt Cain are a combined 9-19 on a team that was supposed to be strong in pitching and weak on offense. Hard to tell what GM Brian Sabean will do. As long as he thinks he's in the hunt, he'll likely hang in there and perhaps improve his team. Otherwise, this team has interesting veterans such as Bengie Molina, Ray Durham, and Omar Vizquel who could draw interest.
4. Colorado Rockies: As horrible as they've been, there's time to salvage the season. But the first week after the break could dictate whether GM Dan O'Dowd will start shopping players. The big name that could go is Matt Holliday, though they have him under their control for one more year. Contenders will call about lefthanded closer Brian Fuentes and third baseman Garrett Atkins. The Rockies will dangle second-line vets such as Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednik, Yorvit Torrealba, and pitchers Matt Herges and Luis Vizcaino.
5. San Diego Padres: Lost cause here. Watching Adrian Gonzalez is about the only thing left. Ownership is in shambles. The Padres don't have much anyone would want. Kevin Kouzmanoff, anyone?
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com.
