Twins are simply successful

The Twins seem to stand the test of time, even though their player development and scouting philosophies often appear outdated to the newbies who have brought mathematical formulas to player evaluation.

The Twins still do it the old-fashioned way. General manager Bill Smith said that while the Twins do their own number-crunching, they don’t employ any Bill James wannabes to provide elaborate statistical analysis. Just the basics. They let their eyes do the majority of their evaluations.

Maybe someday they will, but if all things in baseball were equal - no such thing as big-market or small-market teams - then the Twins, who have won five division titles in eight seasons, probably would come out on top.

“And that’s not to say the Red Sox and Yankees couldn’t do well under a salary cap situation,’’ said one official. “It depends a lot on what the cap would be. If it’s $80 million-$85 million, the Twins wouldn’t have to change the way they do things but the Red Sox and Yankees would have to adjust.

“In Boston’s favor is the fact they could devote so many resources - even more than they do now - toward buying the best amateur players, as could the Yankees and Mets. All of that money hypothetically wouldn’t be factored into a cap.’’

Of course, if a strict slotting system in the draft and an international draft were added, making everyone truly equal, then who’d be the top organization?

“I’d say the Twins,’’ said a National League general manager.

“Twins and Marlins,’’ said an assistant GM in the American League.

“I still think the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels would be the top because they’d figure it out,’’ said an AL Central GM. “How about Tampa Bay?’’

Other organizations mentioned by our executives were Colorado, Atlanta, and the Dodgers. The Marlins would be an intriguing team under a cap because they probably do the most with their payroll of any team. What would the Marlins be like with perhaps double what they’re spending now?

The Twins’ Smith is one of the most down-to-earth GMs in the game. He adheres to the philosophy preached by his predecessor, Terry Ryan, a perennial Executive of the Year candidate: “Keep it simple.’’ It’s the same one Andy McPhail had years ago.

The Twins’ player development philosophy was articulated very well recently by manager Ron Gardenhire, who was discussing the team’s ability to bring up players who can help:

“I’ve seen certain teams draft people and send pitchers right to the big leagues. You don’t see that very often with us, taking a pitcher like [Rick] Porcello with Detroit and going right to the big leagues and not spending much time.

“We have a different philosophy. Our organization always has. We like to run them through the levels and make sure we protect them as much as we can and get them there.

“Some people knock it. But it’s been successful for us. We’ve been able to maintain at least a chance to win now for, whatever, seven or eight years.

“The organization has a pretty good philosophy about taking care of these kids, and I like to see it.’’

And, without knocking the Rays, Gardenhire cited a perfect example of someone brought up much too soon: Delmon Young.

“He’s still 23, 24 years old and he’s already been up in the big leagues for five or six years,’’ said Gardenhire. “He’s still learning.

“If you watch him, you see how far the guy can hit the ball in his natural raw power, his gift with arm strength, and all those things. He broke onto the scene at Tampa Bay and had a really good year. The expectations went through the roof. I think he’s still fighting those expectations.’’

“We don’t try to reinvent the wheel,’’ added Smith. “We feel comfortable with the way we operate. We’re not always the best, but we think it’s a process that works in the long term.

“We’re proud of what we’ve done here with five divisional titles in eight years. We’d love to have more championships, but there are a lot of other great organizations to compete with.’’

Who’s the boss in Toronto?

Over the past few months, there has been speculation about Nationals president Stan Kasten moving north of the border to run the team for his old buddy Beeston, but there seems to be some stickiness with Kasten leaving Washington, where he has a small ownership stake.

If not Kasten, then who? Some in the media have suggested Doug Melvin, who is a Canadian and the current Milwaukee general manager, but it doesn’t appear that he would leave the Brewers.

The obvious choice would be former Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick, but he has continually denied his interest and says he’s not willing to leave his home in Seattle for the job.

Beeston appears to be looking for someone who knows baseball but also would know how to turn a big profit at Rogers Centre, where attendance has really faded, from 2.4 million in 2008 to 1.876 million this season, a drop of 21.8 percent.

There are few experienced president/CEO types around. Sandy Alderson and Jeremy Kapstein are two who have done the job. Dennis Gilbert and Joe Garagiola Jr. are also qualified candidates.

As for a general manager, it appears the Jays will commit to 32-year-old Alex Anthopoulos, who was promoted when J.P. Ricciardi was fired and is already beginning to make front office moves.

In other ownership news, the Rangers could be sold in the next few weeks, with three groups in the final stages of negotiations. One is led by current team president Nolan Ryan and is seen as the favorite, while another is led by Gilbert, the special adviser to White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

In Chicago, the Ricketts family has been officially awarded the Cubs. One industry source said the Cubs may stick with the same management team for the short term and transition into a different one if things continue to go badly.

Picking winners in preseason is predictably problematic

In the American League East, I picked Tampa Bay, writing, “In the end, it was impossible not to select this talented roster, comprised of young, rising players heading into their prime, to repeat as AL East division winners.’’ Of course.

I did get Boston right as the wild card, but shortchanged the Yankees, whom I picked third. Before I talked myself out of it, I had New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay in that order. I felt the Yankees’ older players would break down. They didn’t. Lesson: Go with your first instinct.

In the AL Central, I picked Minnesota. Had that one all the way. But I fell into the Cleveland trap for second place, then Chicago, Detroit, and Kansas City. Messed up on Detroit and Cleveland, but I’ll take it.

In the AL West, I picked the Angels. Not a tough one. Went with Texas second. Predicted an improvement in Seattle but didn’t see a decent season unfold.

In the National League East, I hit the Phillies. Again, not a tough pick to go with the defending World Series champions. I went with the Mets second (I guess I never learn). I did correctly predict a last-place finish for the Nationals (whoopee) and may do so again next season.

In the NL Central, another kick-myself moment because I hedged and hedged and really wanted to pick the Cardinals first, but wound up picking them second to the Cubs. Another case of talking myself out of it. The Cubs were tremendously disappointing, when so many of us felt they would be better than last season.

In the NL West, I selected the Dodgers, another easy hit, and picked the Giants second. But I did not give any respect to the Rockies, picking them fourth in the division.

To compound things, I had the Cubs as my World Series winners over the Rays. Always a great feeling to pick two teams for the World Series that don’t make the playoffs.

So my apologies to the Yankees, Tigers, and Rockies. Vegas won’t have to worry about me.

Etc.

2. Andy Pettitte, LHP, Yankees - He wound up earning $10.5 million this season ($5.5 million guaranteed and $5 million in incentives), leaving only $1.5 million in incentives on the table (for 200 and 210 innings). He pitched 194 2/3 innings. Pettitte hopes to be a big part of the postseason. The question will become, again, will he pitch in 2010? Pettitte remains mysterious about the future, but the Yankees or another team could make his decision easier with a guaranteed contract at around what he earned. The Dodgers are always an option.

3. Brandon Webb, RHP, Diamondbacks - As front offices begin their offseason evaluations, Webb’s name comes up often as one of those rehab pitchers a few teams will have interest in if the Diamondbacks do not pick up his $8.5 million option. Given the Diamondbacks’ fragile financial condition, there’s a good chance the former Cy Young winner will not return.

4. Nomar Garciaparra, INF, A’s - There’s a good chance Garciaparra will play somewhere in 2010 after hitting .281 in 160 at-bats. He did struggle with his chronic calf conditions, but he showed he can still hit lefthanded pitching (.297) off the bench or as a part-timer. If this is it, Garciaparra ends up with a .313 career average.

5. Jason Bay, LF, Red Sox - Could he wind up in the City by the Bay? Giants GM Brian Sabean is looking for a big bat and will spend for someone like Bay or Holliday. The Sox will have to extend themselves to sign Bay, who is going to draw a handsome amount in the free agent market. He would love to stay with the Sox, but he does live in Seattle, and the West Coast may be calling his name.

6. Rick Peterson, pitching coach - He was out of baseball this season but will likely have his choice of spots. One probable option is being reunited with Ken Macha in Milwaukee. Peterson was Macha’s pitching coach in Oakland. If anyone can turn a pitching staff around, it’s Peterson. He met with Brewers GM Doug Melvin and assistant GM Gord Ash in Newark at midweek. The Brewers also interviewed Bryan Price, the former Diamondbacks pitching coach who now works for the Phillies. Peterson is also drawing interest from the Reds.

7. Fernando Rodney, closer, Tigers - He had a revival with the Tigers and became their closer after the Brandon Lyon experiment failed. Rodney should be in demand in free agency because he throws so hard and was so efficient for the Tigers, who asked him to pitch into a fourth inning of relief in the one-game playoff vs. Minnesota.

8. Hideki Matsui, DH, Yankees - Matsui has told friends he feels he can play left field for someone next season if the Yankees don’t bring him back. Whether any team would take that chance remains to be seen. Matsui loves hitting at Fenway Park (.330), but if the Sox lose Bay, they undoubtedly would want a younger, quicker player. Matsui proved this season that he can still hit at a high level. Seattle and possibly San Francisco (hey, a slow-footed Barry Bonds played there) could be in the mix.

9. Eric Wedge, former manager, Indians - Considered the most likely of the ex-managers out there to manage again soon. There’s widespread sentiment that Wedge didn’t deserve to be fired, much like Bob Melvin, who was dumped in Arizona earlier in the year. Wedge might have opportunities to be a bench coach for a while if he wants to. Don’t be surprised if a team puts him to work as a special assistant.

Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com.