Projection: 2 wins (Baseball Prospectus)
Comment: Over! Now, BP's PECOTA system is apparently giving too much weight to the fact that Lackey did not pitch last year – but that won't stop us from jumping on that and closing this out with an easy one. Lackey won 12 games in 2011 – in what was the worst season a Red Sox starting pitcher has ever had. He's fit this spring, he says his surgically-repaired elbow feels as good as it has in years, and so we're putting him down for at least a dozen wins, which is way more than two by our math.