Projection: 29 home runs (Bill James)
Comment: Under. It's certainly possible that Middlebrooks, who hit 24 homers in 386 plate appearances between Triple A and the majors last season, could approach 30 homers in his sophomore season. But his 13/70 BB/K ratio as a rookie suggests his lack of patience could be exposed by savvier pitchers. We're putting him down for about 25 homers and an impressive decade-long run as the Red Sox' No. 5 hitter.