Projection: 8 home runs (Baseball Prospectus).
Comment: Over ... but really, who the heck knows what to expect? Ellsbury was the best offensive player in the American League two years ago, mashing 32 home runs – 23 more than the second-most he has hit in a single season in his six-year career. He had just 4 last year after suffering a serious early season shoulder injury that limited him to just 323 plate appearances. So why are we taking the over? Optimistically, because we do remember how brilliant he was two years ago. Cynically, because it's a contract year.