Cost may be out of their range

Teams interested in Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, the MVP of the inaugural World Baseball Classic, have until Wednesday at 5 p.m. to submit bids to procure the righthander's services.

Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein yesterday refused to say whether the Sox planned to submit a bid, citing club policy regarding player acquisitions, but Matsuzaka has been extensively scouted both in person and on video by the Sox. Point man in any effort to acquire Matsuzaka almost certainly will be Craig Shipley, the team's vice president of professional and international scouting.

Matsuzaka, 26, yesterday was officially posted by the Seibu Lions, the first step required before Matsuzaka can play in the major leagues.

"Posting" is a mechanism that allows the transfer of players from the Japanese leagues to Major League Baseball. Its primary benefit is to allow Japanese teams to receive compensation for players seeking to play in the big leagues before becoming free agents. Before the posting system was in place, star pitcher Hideo Nomo "retired" from his Japanese team, the Kintetsu Buffaloes, to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Lions will be informed of the winning bid, but not the highest bidder. The Lions will then have until Nov. 14 to accept. If they do, the major league team will have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka, who has retained powerful agent Scott Boras to represent him. If an agreement is not struck, Matsuzaka returns to the Lions, and the bid is returned.

There is speculation the bidding could go as high as $20 million or $30 million. The Seattle Mariners, who have Japanese stars in Ichiro Suzuki and Kenji Johjima, have said they will not bid for Matsuzaka because they expect the bidding to go beyond what they're willing to pay. The Mariners bid in excess of $13 million for Ichiro when he was posted.

It may take an additional $10 million or more per year to sign Matsuzaka, who went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings last season. He has led the Japanese Pacific League in wins three times, strikeouts four times, and ERA twice.

Are the Sox willing to pay what it takes? Under Epstein, their strategy in player acquisition is to assign a value to a player and then not exceed that value, which is why Derek Lowe, Pedro Martínez, and Johnny Damon left as free agents.

The Sox may have had their best-fielding left side of the infield in team history last season, but neither shortstop Alex Gonzalez nor third baseman Mike Lowell won an American League Gold Glove. Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter was awarded with his third straight Gold Glove, even though he made more than twice as many errors as Gonzalez (15 to 7) and had a lower fielding percentage (.975 to .985). Injuries limited Gonzalez to 111 games while Jeter appeared in 154, which could have been a factor in the voting.

Lowell was beaten out by Eric Chavez of Oakland, who won for the sixth straight season. Chavez (five errors) made one fewer error than Lowell and their fielding percentages were the same (.987), though Lowell started 19 more games than Chavez and handled 72 more chances (463 to 391).

The voting was done by AL managers and coaches.

The 2007 "Bill James Handbook," which is authored by Baseball Info Solutions and was originally conceived by the Sox' senior baseball operations adviser, has its projections for next season.

"It is what it is; we are not soothsayers or mystics with crystal balls; we're just a bunch of hairy accountants with spreadsheets," James writes. "Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong, and sometimes we're sorry we brought up the subject."

Disclaimers aside, James and Co. predict big years again for David Ortiz (.285, 47 home runs, 138 RBIs) and Manny Ramírez (.305, 37, 118) and a comeback season for Jason Varitek (.259, 17, 69). Other projections include Coco Crisp (.284, .337 OBP), Kevin Youkilis (.283, 14, 77), Wily Mo Peña (.277, 23, 68) and Lowell (.273, 18, 77).

James doesn't do pitching projections, but Baseball Info Solutions does. If they're right, it's understandable why the Sox are in the market for pitching. Josh Beckett is projected as a modest 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA, Curt Schilling 12-8 with a 3.50 ERA, and Tim Wakefield 8-8 with a 4.14 ERA. The most encouraging projection is for Jonathan Papelbon, who is making the transition from closer to starter: 14-6, 2.98 ERA.

Gordon Edes can be reached at edes@globe.com.