Riding a stationary cycle

One American League general manager put it this way when asked if he thought Manny Ramírez would finally be traded this offseason: "He's been on the block for, what, five years? My answer is it's highly unlikely he'll be dealt, but what we'll see in the weeks ahead is how motivated is he to get out of Boston and how motivated the Red Sox are to make it happen. Did he ask for a trade? And if he did, has he changed his mind yet?"

The Globe's Gordon Edes reported Ramírez's desire to be traded in September, and we can only assume the slugger hasn't changed his mind.

The Ramírez Soap Opera is an old story that rings new every year at this time. For now, count on Ramírez hitting behind David Ortiz in 2007.

Ramírez is tantalizing to some teams and dismissed by others who would never want to deal with his antics or pay his salary.

One baseball executive said Ramírez probably isn't atop anyone's wish list, but he could be a fallback for a team that can't land a top free agent such as Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramírez, or Carlos Lee.

"Don't get me wrong," said a National League general manager. "Everybody wants his bat. But now he's getting up there in age, he's breaking down, the money, the attitude. In the NL, he's an adventure defensively.

"It takes a special team. The Red Sox have been that. They're really perfect for Manny because they have been able to tolerate everything that comes with it, and he's been phenomenal for them."

The next few weeks will determine whether the secondary market will develop.

Is it in Philadelphia, where the Phillies would prefer to go all out for Soriano, a multidimensional player with nowhere near Ramírez's hitting ability but who fits nicely into a National League lineup? The Phillies would rather utilize Soriano's speed and stick him in the leadoff or No. 2 spot ahead of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Of course, Ramírez would provide the kind of protection for Howard that he does now for Ortiz.

Is it the Angels, who are expected to be the most aggressive team in free agency? They'll go after Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Gary Mathews Jr., and even Barry Zito. If they land Zito but can't add a big hitter, they have the pieces -- Ervin Santana, John Lackey, Scot Shields, or Chone Figgins -- to trade for Manny. Then again, the Angels appear to be a team that would rather opt for Alex Rodriguez or Vernon Wells.

Is it the Mets? They will let Cliff Floyd go into free agency and might have room for Ramírez in left field. They can deal pitcher Aaron Heilman, who has expressed a desire to be a starter and might fit nicely in Boston's rotation, though with Pedro Martínez missing for at least half a season, Heilman will be tougher to part with.

The Tigers have a need for a DH, though they might opt for a cheaper alternative (Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, or Mike Piazza). The Orioles need a big hitter. The Cubs, White Sox, Indians, Giants, Rangers, Astros, Padres, and Cardinals all need to add some thump.

Sox GM Theo Epstein and Padres GM Kevin Towers have been repeat trading partners. And don't rule out Houston, which has parted ways with Jeff Bagwell and could be losing substantial payroll if Andy Pettitte retires and Roger Clemens goes to Boston.

Of course, the fact that Ramírez has been plagued by patellar tendinitis in his right knee could further complicate things. Rest is expected to help that condition, but do teams want to run the risk of him missing significant time?

And if Ramírez, who as a 10-5 player can block any deal, is seeking to extend his contract, that would appear to make him less tradeable.

"It sounds complicated," said the AL GM. "The Red Sox would have to have another big hitter in place in order to entertain it. They would never get full value, so they'd have to consider it a salary dump and use the money in other areas or get pitching or prospects in return."

It's been proven the last five years that it's very hard to trade Ramírez.

"A huge problem is the contract," said the GM. "Even though there's a couple of years left, the money is huge [upward of $40 million]. The Red Sox would probably have to eat some."

Don't lose any sleep over this one. There's always the old "when you least expect it" scenario, but we've been down this road before, and it's usually a dead end.

Panel has its own leather-brained ideas

"The Fielding Bible" author John Dewan and Bill James put together a 10-person panel to vote on the best defensive players in baseball. The panel includes the Baseball Info Solutions video scouts; Strat-O-Matic Baseball creator Hal Richman; Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski; Seattle Mariners scout Mat Olkin ; Chicago sports talk show host Mike Murphy; Nate Birtwell, who oversees the BIS data collection; and ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer. Results from a poll taken on the fan website Tango on Baseball (tangotiger.net) was also used.

It's interesting to compare how the "TFB" panel jibed with the managers and coaches who voted for the Gold Gloves. "TFB" voted on the best in baseball, while Gold Glove voting is conducted in each league.

The panel's choices:

First base: Albert Pujols, St. Louis. It's amazing to think that the best hitter of this generation is also the best-fielding player at his position. Gold Gloves: Mark Teixeira (Texas) and Pujols.

Second base: Orlando Hudson, Arizona. Hudson also was finally recognized by the managers and coaches. Gold Gloves: Mark Grudzielanek (Royals) and Hudson.

Third base: Adrian Beltre, Seattle. Beltre and the Cardinals' Scott Rolen tied, and Beltre won in a series of tiebreakers. Gold Gloves: Eric Chavez (Oakland) and Rolen.

Shortstop: Adam Everett, Houston. He garnered all but two first-place votes from the panel. Gold Gloves: Derek Jeter (Yankees) and Omar Vizquel (San Francisco).

Left field: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay. No surprise. Although he has never won a Gold Glove, his excellent defense is well-known.

Center field: Carlos Beltran, Mets. Most might have expected Andruw Jones to win, but Beltran easily received the nod.

Right field: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle. A clear-cut winner. Gold Gloves: Torii Hunter (Minnesota), Suzuki, Vernon Wells (Toronto), Mike Cameron (San Diego), Jones, and Beltran.

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit. Gold Gloves: Rodriguez and Brad Ausmus (Houston).

Pitcher: Greg Maddux, Los Angeles. Maddux has also won 15 of the last 16 National League Gold Gloves. Gold Gloves: Kenny Rogers (Detroit) and Maddux.

Not every team will venture into the land of the rising sum

While most teams are sold on Daisuke Matsuzaka as a future superstar major leaguer, some are thinking twice about making a bid. The surprise was the Mariners, who have a Japanese owner and a history of being able to assimilate Japanese players into Seattle.

But the posting bid, which could get as high as $20 million, seemed to scare teams off. It's unclear whether the Red Sox are one of the teams (along with the Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs) in the bidding. If they're not, it's clear why.

"Two things there," said one AL GM, who thought about posting but declined. "The money is ridiculous and Scott Boras represents him."

New Sox pitching coach John Farrell acknowledges he's only seen the Seibu Lions pitching sensation twice on video, but his assessment is very positive.

"He has a unique combination of power and command; very good secondary pitches," Farrell said. "He has the capability of attacking hitters with a well-located fastball and secondary pitches.

"He's about 6 feet, 6-1, and he's able to replicate his delivery at a high percentage. He has a consistent release point. An excellent breaking pitch."

Farrell said he knows nothing about the alleged "gyroball" that Matsuzaka (17-5, 2.15 ERA last season) throws that breaks away from righthanded hitters and into lefthanded hitters. It appears to be the modern-day version of a screwball.

Said former Sox pitching coach Dave Wallace, "I've not seen Matsuzaka, so I can't comment on how he throws it, but apparently it's a very effective pitch for him."

Wallace coached the first wave of Asian pitchers in the majors, Japanese star Hideo Nomo and South Korea's Chan Ho Park with the Dodgers in 1995.

"Nomo was a very unique situation, and back then we were all learning about the cultural differences and problems with communication," Wallace said. "I think since then teams are better able to deal with it, but for the pitcher himself, there's still a very tough process in being assimilated into a new culture, a new language, and a new way of doing things."

Etc.

Apropos of nothing: 1. Former Red Sox pitching coach Dave Wallace has offers from two organizations; he'll decide in a week; 2. If you have a billion dollars, you can buy the Cubs; 3. Dave Roberts, known for stealing The Base in Game 4 of the ALCS in 2004, will be honored as a Red Sox Hall of Fame inductee along with Jerry Remy, George Scott, Dick Williams, Joe Morgan, old-timers Ellis Kinder and Vern Stephens, and Sox vice president Dick Bresciani at a dinner Thursday at 6 p.m. at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center; call 617-226-6002 for tickets; 4. Sox bench coach Brad Mills should have at least interviewed for a managing job; 5. Don't you get the feeling Julio Lugo is coming to Boston?

In 1998, Montreal shortstop Mark Grudzielanek led the National League with 33 errors. Eight years later, and six years after he started playing second base, he won a Gold Glove for the Kansas City Royals. Grudzielanek also was the answer to a trivia question 10 years ago: "Who are the only shortstops to have hit .300, with over 200 hits and 30 steals?" Answer: Honus Wagner (1908) and Grudzielanek (1996). He learned his base stealing from the best: Tommy Harper. By the way, it was former Royals general manager Allard Baird, the new special assistant to Theo Epstein, who got Grudzielanek to Kansas City.

If Aramis Ramirez elects not to re-sign with the Cubs, they might keep third base open for Nomar Garciaparra, a former Cub who left on good terms after 2005 and could easily make the transition from first to third. The Dodgers are contemplating bringing back Garciaparra, but don't want to slow the progress of first base sensation James Loney. Garciaparra hit .303 with 20 homers and 93 RBIs for the Dodgers this past season.

With Sox third baseman Mike Lowell having only one year left on his contract (at $9 million) and knowing there's enough interest that they could move him, the Red Sox have interest in lefthanded-hitting Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, 27, who has hit over .300 with 106 homers the last three seasons. He had a .389 on-base percentage last season for the Yakult Swallows. The Indians, Padres and Phillies also appear to be in position to make a bid for Iwamura, a Gold Glove-caliber fielder who can also play second base and center field. Iwamura will be posted by the Swallows tomorrow and teams can begin making their secret bids. Iwamura will likely require a contract in the $4 million-$5 million range per season.

Kerry Wood would seem to be a nice gamble for a team seeking a potential top-of-the-line reliever. Wood, whose career as a starter has been curtailed by shoulder surgeries, feels he can tolerate being a one- or two-inning reliever. With his stuff, Wood could be closer material if he stayed healthy.

Former flame-throwing Angels and Tigers closer Troy Percival filed for free agency, but his agent, Paul Cohen, said Percival's playing career is over after several injuries. This season, he was a $6 million advance scout for the Tigers. "We've received calls from many teams wanting to know of Troy's interest in being a part of their organization," said Cohen. "At this point, I think Troy has made the decision that he won't pitch again."

Toronto GM J.P Ricciardi said the Jays will be "moderately" into free agency and the trade market, but Ricciardi did his damage last offseason with two superb moves in acquiring elite closer B.J. Ryan and an elite talent in A.J. Burnett (in spite of his injuries). "We looked ahead to this year's free agent market when we made those moves and we're looking ahead to next year's already," said Ricciardi. "We knew what was going or not going to be available, so maybe we paid a little more, but I think what we did is we established that Toronto is a good place to play baseball, and by finishing second in a tough division, we established ourselves as a team that's going to contend. I think it's really going to help us moving forward." He indicated he will to continue to negotiate with Vernon Wells in hopes of working out a long-term deal and said he feels no pressure to trade him. He would also like to bring back free agent lefthander Ted Lilly and outfielder Frank Catalanotto.

Trey Hillman, the hot managerial candidate whose obligations to the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters are complete, has interviewed in Texas, Oakland, and San Diego. According to sources close to Hillman, he would lean toward Texas, where he once served as farm director and where he would have far more authority to run his program.

Sometimes you forget what a great career Mike Piazza has had. After last season, Piazza, a free agent who will likely re-sign with San Diego at a lower rate than his $8 million contract option, has a .309 career average with 419 homers and 1,291 RBIs in 6,602 at-bats. Not many other players have hit 400 homers and batted over .300. Among them: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx as well as active players Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas and Alex Rodriguez.

Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com; material from personal interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.