Red Sox map out next step for long term

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- As Daisuke Matsuzaka prepared to fly from Tokyo for an arrival in Los Angeles tomorrow for the final phase of negotiations with the Red Sox, he may not have been aware that interest in his fate extends to the far reaches of the universe.

That's not propaganda by either agent or ball club, whose posturing in the last days before the Dec. 14 deadline to sign Matsuzaka will make rich headline material in both Japan and Red Sox Nation. It is the observation of Seth Borenstein, a science writer from the Associated Press and Sox fan who yesterday passed on word that before astronaut Sunita "Sunny" Williams boarded the space shuttle Discovery, the Needham native jumped in front of a TV camera and held up a "GO RED SOX" sign, which she planned to take with her on a scheduled six-month trip into space.

Sox general manager Theo Epstein also was on the move yesterday, leaving baseball's winter meetings having achieved two major objectives -- coming to terms with right fielder J.D. Drew and shortstop Julio Lugo -- while leaving Florida with Manny Ramírez still in the Red Sox' employ. One rival GM predicted the Sox will still move Ramírez before spring training -- perhaps Epstein will reopen talks with Colorado about a swap for Todd Helton, a proposal he considered at last month's GM meetings -- but Boston's asking price turned off potential trading partners. The Dodgers, for example, had no appetite for the Sox wanting some combination of three or four top young players, most of the deals centering on young reliever Jonathan Broxton.

Epstein still is without a closer, although Eric Gagne potentially loomed bigger on the Sox' radar after he rejected an offer from his former team, the Dodgers, that would have guaranteed him $4 million in 2007, with an additional $6 million in incentives.

One source close to the Sox' talks with Gagne's agent -- Scott Boras again -- thought the sides were moving toward an agreement yesterday, but there was word late yesterday afternoon that was not the case. The Sox are balking at Boras's demand for at least $5 million in guaranteed money for Gagne, who has been limited to 15 1/3 innings the last two years because of multiple elbow surgeries and back surgery. The Sox were reviewing Gagne's medical records, but without the chance to see him pitch -- and Boras has no inclination to audition his client, who saved 152 games from 2002-04 with the Dodgers -- a Gagne signing comes with significant risk, even at winter meetings that were missing only Bill Shatner shouting, "Show me the money."

Epstein is expected to turn his full attention to Matsuzaka, who is coming here, Boras said, to have direct input in his negotiations.

"We're going to update him on the negotiations, to advance the negotiations," Boras said here last night after having dinner with another client, Johnny Damon.

"It's certainly our intentions to make sure the athlete's true intentions are communicated to the club. And that will be done personally, by phone, to let them know his mind-set about what's going to happen.

"And I think it's important to communicate to the fans and people in Japan what Daisuke's personal position is after review of the economics, the rules, the model, and his understanding of the negotiation to date. It's his decision in the end that will drive this."

The key ingredients would appear to be in place for a deal -- a motivated club that posted a bid of $51.1 million just to talk to Matsuzaka, and a motivated player who has made no secret of his desire to pitch in the States. But a source with firsthand knowledge of the talks said the Sox are frustrated that Boras has not made a counteroffer to the team's proposal, and Boras's comments last night reinforced the notion that perhaps an unbridgeable gap exists between the Sox' position and the player's position on how he should be paid.

When Gil Meche, who has won a grand total of 55 games in his career, including a modest 11 last season in Seattle, can claim a $55 million, five-year contract from the small-market Kansas City Royals, one can only imagine what kind of payday Boras envisions for his Japanese client. "When I see midlevel pitchers perform, and when they're being paid, they're being paid $40 million, $50 million over four or five years, the fact is, this player's abilities are better," Boras said of Matsuzaka. "And everyone knows it, everyone admits it, and I'm not being an advocate for the player when I say that. I'm merely repeating the observations of most trained baseball observers.

"The greatest evidence of that is the numerous teams who bid not $10 million, not $20 million, but $30, $40, $50 million dollars to acquire the player and his rights unilaterally."

The Sox paid $51.1 million for the exclusive rights to Matsuzaka, Boras said, but that should not impact how much the club pays for his services. The posting system is set up in such a way, Boras said, that the elite player ends up being penalized, because clubs want to factor the posting fee into how much they pay the player.

"The gravity of the harm to the Japanese player really was never evident to the magnitude that it is here," Boras said. "Ichiro was an MVP in his first year, but the truth of the matter is no one really knew how Ichiro was going to do. The fact of the matter is, Ichiro proved that for the Japanese player, this is not something that should happen again."

Boras said he is essentially negotiating two deals with the Sox: compensation for the player's services, and another to determine how the club will be paid for his marketing and licensing value.

None of this is new to the Sox, which may account for the pessimism on Yawkey Way that a deal will be struck. What happens if Matsuzaka should reject the Sox deal and return to Japan, where he would have to wait two more years for unrestricted free agency, unless Boras chooses to mount a legal challenge to the entire posting system? Well, Roger Clemens is a free agent, and while he has yet to signal whether he intends to return -- or could be induced to come back to Boston -- he'd cost a mere fraction of what Matsuzaka will cost.