High expectations? You bet

Among the sporting propositions offered by at least one Internet gambling site are these two:

The first is how many games Daisuke Matsuzaka will win for the Red Sox in 2007.

A pessimist could get 5-to-1 odds that he'll win 10 to 11. The safe bettor could get 3-to-1 odds that he'll win 14 to 15. And the Dice, Dice Baby set could get 8 to 1 that he'll win 20 or 21.

The other is which pitcher will lead the majors in wins. The odds on three Sox pitchers are posted. Curt Schilling, who has 207 wins in his big-league career, is listed at 25 to 1. Josh Beckett, a former World Series MVP, is 15 to 1.

Daisuke? He has yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues, but he's listed at 7 to 1, which are better odds than they're offering Toronto ace Roy Halladay, a former Cy Young Award winner who is 9 to 1.

How do you say, "Sky-high expectations" in Japanese?

(Hijou ni Okina Kitai)

"Matsuzaka is everywhere!" Peter Grilli, president of the Japan Society of Boston, wrote in an e-mail from Tokyo a few days ago. "In the 12 hours I've been in Japan so far, I've been asked about him countless times. Taxi drivers hear I'm from Boston and . . . bang! They stop talking about cherry blossoms and start telling me what Matsuzaka is going to do to win the pennant for Boston this year.

"I gave a talk in Japanese to the 'Boston Association of Japan,' and nearly all the questions were about how to get tickets to Red Sox games when Matsuzaka is pitching. The fact that a young Japanese girl won the World Figure Skating Championships last night was just a temporary distraction from Matsuzaka-mania!"

Masanori Murakami, who 43 years ago became the first Japanese player in the big leagues, is now an analyst for NHK, the giant Japanese television network. He said he spoke with Matsuzaka last fall in Tokorozawa, home of the Seibu Lions, even before Seibu had placed Matsuzaka's name up for bidding in the posting process.

"I told him, 'I'll see you next year in San Francisco,' " Murakami said by telephone from Japan through Globe graphic designer Daigo Fujiwara, who translated. "He didn't seem to understand what I was talking about, but I was talking about the All-Star Game in San Francisco. My message to him was, 'Be an All-Star,' but I wonder if he remembers it.

"No matter what, he'll win 15. That's a minimum. I'd say with [Jonathan] Papelbon closing again, he can win 18. At least clear Nomo's 16 [most by a Japanese pitcher in the majors]. But the Red Sox are a little bit too dependent on power, so they're more prone to a slump. If he was playing for Yankees, he would win a minimum of 18 games. In that sense, [new Yankee Kei] Igawa was lucky.

"I am thinking he will have an ERA of less than 3, 200 strikeouts, win a Gold Glove, and be Rookie of the Year. I think he is a Cy Young contender. That's within possibility. Barring injury, I think he'll get at least two league-leading titles."

Such glowing forecasts are not limited to the other side of the pond. In a poll on Boston.com, more than 80 percent of the 16,000-plus respondents predicted 17 or more wins. Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy says Matsuzaka's wins will match his jersey number (18).

Everyone has an opinion. On ESPN, former pitcher Rick Sutcliffe says he'll be surprised if Matsuzaka wins fewer than 15 games. On the same network, former catcher (and manager) Buck Martinez also predicts success, though he tempers his enthusiasm by calling Matsuzaka "a very good -- not great" pitcher, reserving the stronger accolade for the likes of Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson.

Schilling on his blog suggests that those predicting 15 wins for Dice-K are selling him short, and in interviews this spring said he imagines Matsuzaka will be disappointed if he's not in contention for the Cy Young Award.

The statistical analysts at Baseball Prospectus, who offer the most sophisticated breakdown anywhere, prepare something they call PECOTA -- Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, which by name alone informs you that they go a little beyond multiplying earned runs by nine and dividing by innings pitched to come up with ERA.

Basically, PECOTA is the formula the BP people use to project a player's performance. For Matsuzaka, they project a 14-7 record, the same as Schilling, 200 innings pitched, 31 starts, 3.83 ERA, 176 strikeouts, and 55 walks. In a measure they consider extremely important in projecting the impact a player has on a team -- VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player -- BP gives Matsuzaka a 42, the highest score on the staff.

"The Matsuzaka projection is formed by looking at all the other guys who have switched places between Japan and the States in recent years -- everyone from Hideo Nomo to Ichiro Suzuki to So Taguchi," Nate Silver, executive vice president of Baseball Prospectus, wrote in an e-mail. "Fortunately, there are quite a few of these cases.

"What we've generally found is that Japan is roughly equal to a Triple A-level of competition, or maybe even a 'Super Triple A' along the lines of what we saw in the Pacific Coast League back during the '40s and '50s. Accordingly, players who are stars in Japan are good bets to at least be very good major leaguers, just like the best players in Triple A will usually have good major league careers. Some of them are going to turn into stars.

"Of course, we also have to adjust for the context of Matsuzaka's surroundings. Fenway Park is never an easy place to pitch, especially with the American League being as tough as it is and the Red Sox having only an average defense. So when we project Matsuzaka for a 14-7 record and a 3.83 ERA, as we have in our most recent round of projections, that's good enough to imply that he's going to be one of the five best pitchers in the league. Maybe not quite as good as Johan Santana, but in the next tier along with pitchers like Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia."

Silver added that his instincts tell him that Matsuzaka may eclipse these numbers, and that it wouldn't surprise him if he started the All-Star Game for the American League.

How realistic are the expectations?

Though he has pitched professionally in Japan for eight seasons, Matsuzaka is classified as a rookie in the major leagues. The Sox rookie record for wins is held by Dave "Boo" Ferriss, a 21-game winner at age 23 in 1945. Don Schwall, a 6-foot-6-inch righthander out of the University of Oklahoma, is the only Sox pitcher ever to be named American League Rookie of the Year. In 1961, Schwall went 15-7 with 10 complete games and a 3.22 ERA; a year later, the record was almost reversed (9-15), the ERA climbed almost to 5 (4.94), and Schwall was dealt to Pittsburgh after the season for Dr. Strangeglove, Dick Stuart.

Roger Clemens, the future Hall of Famer, was 9-4 as a rookie in 1984. Two years later, at age 23, three years younger than Matsuzaka, Clemens was 24-4 and won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards. Nineteen big-league pitchers 26 years or younger have won 20 games or more since 1990. The last was San Francisco's Barry Zito, who won 23 in 2002, while he was still in Oakland.

The best of the Japanese starting pitchers to cross over is Hideo Nomo. Like Matsuzaka, he was 26 when he came to the Dodgers in 1995, went 13-6 his first season, and with 236 strikeouts and a sterling 2.54 ERA was voted NL Rookie of the Year. He is the benchmark for Dice-K, even though he wasn't one of the 121 pitchers 26 or younger since '90 to win 15 or more games.

Perhaps this is the best barometer for forecasting Mastuzaka's performance. According to a TV cameraman sitting near the Reds' dugout when Matsuzaka pitched in Sarasota, Fla., earlier this spring, both Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion came back laughing and shaking their heads. "They both said the same thing," the cameraman said. "We have no idea what he just threw us."

Mickey White is a longtime scout now working for the Florida Marlins. He was behind the plate when Matsuzaka pitched in City of Palms Park in Fort Myers, Fla.

"He looks like a Greg Maddux in his prime to me," White said, referring to the Padres' 300-game winner and lock for the Hall of Fame. "The only difference is that he doesn't show the backup fastball that Maddux uses to expand the plate.

"But he expands the plate with all of his pitches. He's as tenacious as a son of a gun, too."

"I think the Red Sox have three No. 1's on this staff. Like the old days of Atlanta, with Maddux, [Tom] Glavine, and [John] Smoltz. Daisuke's best pitch? I think it's a combination. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, and he does the same with his changeup.

"And it's all from a single, pure identity, on every pitch. His arm speed is the same, his body mechanics are the same, the hitters really have to guess. There's no tipping point. It's exciting. I wouldn't call him a novelty, but people are going to want to see him pitch."

White laughed when asked if Matsuzaka might be burdened by great expectations.

"I don't think he cares," he said. "I think everyone misunderstands the concept of pressure on a player. A player, especially a great one, puts pressure on himself.

"Expectations? I don't think he gives a damn."