survey Who deserves the MVP?
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Although the Red Sox World Series victory promises a painful offseason in New York, some Yankees fans will take solace when Alex Rodriguez brings another Most Valuable Player award to the Bronx.
Major League Baseball doesn't announce the MVP awards until Monday, but it's considered a mere formality in the American League this year. Even the casual fan knows A-Rod already has the trophy wrapped up in a tidy, pinstriped bow.
Meanwhile, the consensus on David Ortiz is that he had an off year. Despite being a Boston folk hero on par with John Hancock or Paul Revere, Ortiz's homer total dipped and he didn't launch nearly as many walk-off blasts into the bleachers. Unlike in 2005, when a battle raged over which player meant more to his team, this year even the most hah-dened New England fans concede A-Rod deserves the award.
Don't believe it.
Although it's a little tougher to see at the first glance of a stat sheet, Big Papi was as dangerous as ever this year -- and the real MVP of the American League.
True, A-Rod's eye-popping power numbers (54 homers, 156 RBI) make Ortiz's 35 round-trippers and 117 ribbies look downright pedestrian. On top of that, A-Rod led the league with a gaudy .645 slugging percentage -- the best measure of a hitter's power.
But Ortiz had a better batting average than A-Rod (.332 to .314), and the burly DH added a league-best 111 walks to compile a sterling .445 on base percentage, easily the best in the AL and 23 points higher than A-Rod's. Put simply, pitchers had a much more difficult time getting Ortiz out. In fact, only seven Red Sox players have ever recorded on base percentages higher than Ortiz's in a season. Six have plaques in Cooperstown, and the other is Manny Ramirez.
Ortiz's prolific on base percentage even made his teammates look better. Mike Lowell had the lowest home run total of any Sox player with 120 RBIs since the dead ball era, a direct result of hitting behind Big Papi.
However, Ortiz was much more than an on base machine this season. While A-Rod paced the league in slugging percentage, Ortiz finished third with a respectable .621, the second best total of his career. Papi made up for hitting "only" 35 homers by crushing 52 doubles and leading the league in extra base hits. Contrary to popular opinion, Ortiz didn't hit for less power in 2007, he merely diversified his portfolio. As a result, Ortiz ended in a virtual tie with Boston's favorite glove-slapper for the league OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) crown, 1.066 to A-Rod's 1.067.
And despite A-Rod's 156 RBIs, Ortiz performed better in the clutch, outhitting the Yankees third baseman with runners in scoring position, .358 to .333, and also posting a higher OPS in the same situation, 1.142 to 1.138. A-Rod drove in more runs, in part, because he had 29 more at bats with runners in scoring position. RBI crowns come pretty easy when you hit behind Derek Jeter, but it's a different story when you spend half a season waiting for Julio Lugo to get on base.
Ultimately, flashy numbers are just vanity without a pennant race to add context. In September nobody brought his game to a higher level than Ortiz. With Manny Ramirez on the sidelines and the bullpen imploding, Ortiz was at his best, balky knee and all. His .396 average, .517 on base percentage, .824 slugging percentage, and 1.341 OPS kept the team from losing its hold on the division.
In the last week of the season, when every win became life or death in the division race, Papi somehow found a higher gear. Despite limping around on one good knee, Ortiz hit a mind-boggling .647 with a 2.139 OPS. He hit three homers and only struck out twice. And in case you missed it, the Red Sox, not the Yankees, won the division, tied for the best record in baseball, and earned home field advantage that proved crucial to their championship playoff run.
A-Rod, to be fair, hit well in September too, putting up a .362 average and a 1.193 OPS. But he was just good enough to finish second. Papi was on another plane.
Of course, there's also the DH factor. The plodding Ortiz doesn't contribute on the basepaths and with the glove the way A-Rod does. But while A-Rod's 24 steals certainly deserve respect, they weren't the difference between wins and losses. For a Yankees team that averaged six runs a game, one steal a week wasn't exactly a monumental event.
Rodriguez possesses a reputation as a good fielder, but the stats don't necessarily back it up. He finished second to last in the AL in range factor (putouts plus assists per game). His zone rating (number of plays a player makes within his "zone") and fielding percentage ranked in the middle of the pack and an adjusted zone rating stat offered by analysts at The Hardball Times put A-Rod second to last among AL starters. See a pattern forming here? And think about it: When was the last time you saw a highlight of A-Rod diving to stop a screaming line drive or charging a bunt to gun down a batter? Defensive stats never tell the whole story, but clearly A-Rod isn't the second coming of Brooks Robinson.
Furthermore, if you're going to count contributions beyond hitting, you need to look at clubhouse leadership. Ortiz handled the role of Red Sox father figure with his usual dignity and class, even in the face of injuries. He helped keep a clubhouse full of new faces and rookies loose and stable. In contrast, A-Rod's teammates often found themselves answering questions about what he yelled during infield pop-ups or his choice of, uh, extra-curricular activities.
This year Red Sox fans got so caught up with the intensity of a World Series and the emergence of a fresh crop of youngsters that Ortiz's historic season fell by the wayside. But he's still the catalyst of the Red Sox offense, the leader of the best team in baseball, and the most deadly hitter alive. Sorry A-Rod, but that's an MVP.
Jason Tuohey is a producer for Boston.com. You can contact him at jtuohey@boston.com. Stats used are from ESPN.com, Baseball-Almanac.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and The Hardball Times (hardballtimes.com).
