FORT MYERS, Fla. - It apparently has come to this - a 30-homer, 100-RBI player like Jason Bay currently has no defined value.
The baseball marketplace has changed all right.
It was just two years ago when the Red Sox signed J.D. Drew to a five-year, $70 million contract after he'd opted out of a five-year, $55 million deal with the Dodgers after three years. The numbers say Bay was far more productive in the four years leading up to his trade to the Sox than was Drew, who hit 30 homers only once and drove in 100 runs only once in the four-year prelude to his coming to Boston. In Drew's first two seasons with the Sox, he's driven in 64 runs in each season.
Yet there are real examples of this changing and shrinking market when perennial 100-RBI outfielders like Bobby Abreu and 40-homer ones like Adam Dunn, both coming off big contracts, signed for far less than anyone imagined. Abreu got $5 million on a one-year deal with the Angels (with another million possible in incentives) and Dunn $20 million over a two-year deal with the Nationals. Both received pay cuts after very good seasons, and they'll be able to tell their grandchildren, "Yeah, I drove in 100 runs and I took a $10 million pay cut."
When Sox general manager Theo Epstein and Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, got together for contract talks last week, they came to the conclusion that in these hard economic times there's no defined market for even a player of Bay's résumé, so why try and invent one? Epstein yesterday announced the team has broken off talks with Bay, who is a free agent after this season.
On the other side of the ledger, a controllable pitcher like Jon Lester - who is in the spot Bay was in four years ago - like many of his ilk, grabbed what little guaranteed money is out there. Lester, a 16-game winner, and the Sox yesterday made official a five-year, $30 million deal, with a team option in 2014 for $13 million. In the offseason the Sox tied up Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom accepted the security of multiyear deals at team-friendly terms.
Bay was traded to Boston July 31 in a three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers. After a lot of hemming and hawing Ramirez recently "settled" for a two-year, $45 million contract. He got his money, just not the four years he sought.
Bay, who hit 31 homers and knocked in 101 runs with the Pirates and Sox last season, will play this season, the final year of a four-year, $18.75 million deal he signed with Pittsburgh, for $7.5 million.
"There's nothing I can do about the marketplace," said Bay. "If something comes up that makes sense, I'll consider it."
There's no question Bay wants to remain a Red Sox after his experience with the lowly Pirates. He mentioned that it felt as if he were a free agent when he came to Boston, because "if you could pick a place, this would high on your list."
"The market has changed so much from two years ago to this winter, from a year ago to now," said Epstein, who thinks the sides will revisit talks when the market becomes more defined. "Who knows what it's going to be a year from now?
"So that unpredictability, I think, has created a landscape that's been difficult for us to navigate in terms of getting an extension done a year early. Both sides wanted it, so we tried. But both sides recognized that it's just too early and difficult to get that done right now."
If the talks don't rekindle, Bay could be one of the top outfielders in the free agent market, along with Oakland's Matt Holliday. Also potentially on the market is Twins catcher Joe Mauer, who is expected to be one of the few free agents who gets paid big money if healthy. Holliday is a year younger than Bay but has a balky back, so he will have to show he can stay healthy all season. He'll also be out of Coors Field, where he had a .357 career average.
Some baseball executives predict an even worse financial climate next offseason, when teams are expected to be struggling with sagging attendance and dwindling sponsor revenues. The Red Sox may be in good shape, but will they pay top dollar if they don't have to?
Executives also are predicting that impending free agents may not be offered arbitration. Because so many players got burned this year by turning down arbitration, teams fear more will accept it if offered next winter. Look for teams to roll the dice and let players head to the market, which could severely limit salaries.
In other words, next offseason is going to be an even worse time to be a free agent.
If Lester continues to progress and dominate, he will wind up being a bargain for the Sox, just as Josh Beckett has been. Longer term deals for pitchers can be tricky, but when they're at a good value at low risk for the team, the Sox jump at the chance. Lester's deal fell into that category.
"Now I know I'm going to be here for a long time," said Lester. "And that was just kind of what we wanted to do. Now we can put everything behind us - and we don't have to worry about staying healthy year-to-year and making sure I have a good season. Now, the pressure is off, and go perform. That definitely frees me and my family up to go out and relax and play baseball."
Lester will be 30 at the end of the deal, even if the Sox pick up the $13 million option in 2014. He'll still be young enough to get another big deal if he remains healthy and productive and by then who knows what the state of the economy will be?
Tying up their core players to low-market deals puts the Red Sox in tremendous position. It allows them to keep players in their prime years at a reasonable amount. It also allows them trade flexibility because the salaries are reasonable enough for another team to assume.
Bay has just about graduated from his mid-level deal and now seeks the next level - the deal that would pay him among the top outfielders in baseball.
"You put your time in and get yourself to this position, you don't want to sell yourself short, but I also understand that it's a different time than it was four years ago," Bay said.
Boy is it ever.
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com. 
