Winter wonderings

I can't even talk about it.

So, instead, I'll get on to the topics that are closer to your hearts. Like how unfair it is that, after losing A.J. Burnett, the Blue Jays will get only a third-round draft choice as compensation. Or the ever-popular discussion of the next Sox catcher. (Apparently this never gets old.) And what about that first baseman of the future for the Sox, Lars Anderson, with no new first baseman headed for Boston?

On that note, keep getting in those minors questions for me, and we'll try to get you that all-minors version of the mailbag that I've mentioned before. The season is rapidly approaching -- I'm about to book my ticket to head down to Fort Myers, Fla., for spring training -- but there's still a lot of Hot Stove left to go. With the Red Sox still having a few holes, and a slightly absurd number of free agents left on the market, things won't be slowing down any time soon.

With that, on to the questions...

What is the fallout from the Josh Bard signing? Seems to me that with the non-guaranteed contract, the Sox just bought some leverage. They no longer need both a veteran and a prospect -- now they can tell both Jason Varitek and possible trade partners that they only need one catcher, and the first one to lower their demands will be folded into the Red Sox plans. And even if they get Varitek or a top catching prospect, they can still get the other, with all of the leverage on their side.
Casey, Halifax

A: Incredibly, even without a real major league catcher on their roster, it has seemed for some time that the Sox actually have all the leverage. Though the Sox have talked to Scott Boras a bit about bringing back Jason Varitek, and it remains a possibility, the team does now have a backup that could do more than just catch every fifth day (as the Sox backup has done over the majority of Varitek's tenure). Bard, though, did struggle last season with some injuries and didn't hit very well (.202), so additional upgrades at catcher will continue to be a priority for the Sox. And Bard will be a candidate to catch Tim Wakefield. (Before you say that he couldn't catch the knuckleball in his first go-round with the Sox, the team's management always believed that he could learn to catch it with more time. They were never happy with the panic move that shipped out Cla Meredith with Bard for Doug Mirabelli.)

Two questions actually. First, I was supporting the idea of getting Teixiera, but I didn't think he would be much of an upgrade this year over Lowell, but he would have set the Sox up for the next 8 years with a great infield. So the question is, How is Lars Anderson defensively? Or are there any other infielders in the farm system that could be coming up soon? Second, I know Theo seems to think Clay Buchholz is a future top of the rotation starter, but is there any chance they could look at trading him for Jake Peavy? Peavy is already a top of the rotation starter and is only 27 and has said he would accept a trade to Boston.
Bryan Latour, Haverhill

A: In answer to the first question, Lars Anderson is adequate defensively. He's working on improving that, but I would certainly say that offense is his strength -- he's no Kevin Youkilis at first base with the glove. But from everything I've heard, he's also one of the hardest-working kids in the system. Granted, that doesn't necessarily translate into greater defensive ability. So that's an area that could use a boost as he works his way up from Double A this year.

Ah, the Jake Peavy on-off, on-off trade talks. Aren't those over yet? Peavy has always said he wants to stay in the National League, though a few reports have had him potentially amenable to trades to a club like the Sox or Yankees. Apparently the Padres are still listening to trade talk about Peavy, but they're not actively shopping him at this point. That doesn't mean he won't be traded, but it would seem that Peavy might remain in San Diego for now. Talks could always be resumed with some of the oft-reported trading partners (the Cubs), but I would say that the Sox are not a likely destination for him.

Amalie, I'd be a liar if I claimed I wasn't disappointed that Mark Texeira did not sign with the Red Sox -- and even more upset that he's headed to the Yankees -- but history does tell us that these types of deals rarely result in World Series titles. Manny's the only $20-plus million player I can think of who won a title with the team that signed that contract (maybe the only player, period), and the Yankees have especially been futile in these types of signings. So, is there a silver lining (rhetorically, when did Derek Jeter sign his near-$20 million per year deal?)? Because, if the Sox felt the money was too much for Teixeira, then please tell me they intend to save it for signing Pap, Youk, Beckett, Lester and Ellsbury long-term.
Travis, Louisville, Ky.

A: In terms of $100 million deals -- there have been 19 such deals to 18 players -- some have worked out far better than others. As you said, despite the ugly divorce, the Sox' deal with Manny Ramirez definitely worked out on the field. I'd say that, even though the Yankees haven't won a title since Derek Jeter signed his 10-year contract, it was clearly a good signing. Many of the rest of them haven't worked out so well. Mike Hampton? Kevin Brown? Barry Zito? Jason Giambi? Maybe not as those teams would have hoped. As for the war chest, it doesn't quite work that way. Just because the Sox were willing to offer $170 million for Mark Teixeira, that doesn't exactly mean that the same pot of money gets recycled for other deals for other players. Theoretically it's still there, but it was designed for Teixeira, and not necessarily for Jonathan Papelbon or Kevin Youkilis. As for deals for them, the Sox are interested in locking up a few of their young players. Youkilis and Jon Lester were on the docket for this offseason, though it appears that Youkilis will go year-to-year with the sides far apart on a multi-year deal. With Papelbon's expressed desire to set the standard financially for his position, I would be surprised if the team came to a multi-year agreement with him. Josh Beckett has a club option for 2010, so there's a bit of time for him.

I know one reason behind the Sox not ponying up the money to sign Youkilis to a long-term extension is because Lars Anderson is presumably the first baseman of the future. But what about third base? Lowell's contract is up in 2010 which, I think, is also when Youk can become a free agent. We never hear about a potential third base prospect in the minors. Any clue what the Sox brass might be thinking and what Youkilis is asking for that is considered too much?
Michelle, Gainesville, Ga.

A: Just because the two sides can't come together at the moment, and likely won't during this offseason, you can't rule out Kevin Youkilis signing a long-term deal with the Sox in the future. For now, he will agree to a one-year contract, either a negotiated one or one determined by arbitration, for the 2009 season. Youkilis then obviously hopes he has another year like his past one, raising his value even further. Given his trajectory, it seems to be a good bet that he'll have another extremely productive season. He is under the Sox control through the 2010 season, which does leave the sides some time. Usually when young players not eligible for free agency sign deals with their clubs, they tend to be more favorable to the club in terms of compensation with the benefit to the player being long-term stability and guaranteed money.

I would love to see Rocco Baldelli as the Sox fourth outfielder. The fact he can play CF and is right handed is extremely valuable. I know there is concern for his ability to play long stretches if J.D. gets hurt. What do you think are the chances of the Sox signing Rocco as the fourth OF and Mark Kotsay as the new Sean Casey, offering an option to rest Youk and Lowell and being the fifth OF? What are the chances of the Sox signing Rocco?
Paul, Johnston, RI

A: Rocco Baldelli, in addition to being a local, would certainly be a good fit with the Red Sox in terms of his tools. But because the team has J.D. Drew, who is prone to getting injured and being out for long stretches, the Sox have to be careful with Baldelli's medical situation, though he has had good news on that front in recent weeks. The team would need a fifth outfielder just in case, since Baldelli hasn't yet proven that he can play every day or even back-to-back days. Signing someone like Mark Kotsay behind Baldelli would lessen that concern, as you mention. But, at least at the end of the season, Kotsay was looking for a starting job. He believed that he was still capable of being a starting center fielder. The market for everyone has been slow to develop, so we'll see if that deal materializes, or if Kotsay is forced to accept a bench role with a team like Boston, which would be interested in bringing him back.

Any chance the Red Sox take a complete pass on Jason Varitek, hope another team signs him so they get the draft pick and sign Pudge Rodriguez? Pudge can't hit like he used to but he still hits better than Varitek and has a gun for an arm.
Shane, Longmeadow

A: While possible, I would say that it's far more likely if the Sox sign another veteran catcher it will be Varitek. Also, I'm not so sure there's another team out there that's really interested enough in Varitek to forfeit a draft pick. We heard Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski say at the winter meetings that the draft pick issue led to his team's interest in Varitek dropping (leading to the trade for Gerald Laird), and I'm not so sure it's any different for any other club. That draft choice has really limited Varitek's market. And on that note...

Did Scott Boras overplay his hand with Varitek? Did he really think another team was going to give Varitek a big multi-year deal AND surrender a draft pick?
Pete, Northampton

A: Apparently he did. While agent Scott Boras has gotten some big deals for his clients, he has also made some mistakes, like the Alex Rodriguez debacle during the 2007 World Series. And while it might still turn out that Varitek gets a long-term contract, that possibility is looking more and more unlikely. It appears that Varitek's best deal would have been to accept arbitration. He would have gotten about $10 million for the next season on a one-year deal with the Sox, and could have tried to right his offense in anticipation of becoming a free agent again after 2009. For now, Varitek and Boras will have to just wait out the market and see what they can get.

Is there a possibility we could see Manny Ramirez come back in the No. 4 spot now that we can't get Teixeira? We had 2 option years at $20 million/year, and the best offer he's gotten so far is 2 years/$45 million. Sure, he was a bad boy, but maybe everyone could make nice and we could have the only 3-4 combo that could punch holes through New York's A-Rod/Teixiera combo. As much as I was mad at him, I miss his bat, and I think I could learn to forgive him after a few clutch homers...
Doug O'Roak, Plymouth

A: Nope. No chance. You might be able to forgive and forget, but I'm not so sure the Sox (and Sox management) are of the same mind.

Hey Amalie, do you see Manny as a Yankee (yes this is Post-Texiera signing)? I mean, could it define "insult on top of injury" any better? Plus they really, really could use an outfielder and I still think money isn't an issue yet even with CC/Burnett/Tex. Everyone already hates them, Manny seems the type to try to throw it in the Red Sox face, and it's one of those eerie things that seems downplayed enough that it just might happen. Plus if there really isn't a huge market for Manny, where else would he go?
Joshua, Radford, Va.

A: Could it happen? Sure. It's unlikely, though. I'd say that you be more on target if you were thinking the Dodgers or the Giants. Los Angeles is still the only team to have offered Manny Ramirez a contract (two years, $45 million), though Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said at the winter meetings that Scott Boras had never responded to that initial offer, which was eventually rescinded. The two sides seem to be ready to talk at this point, which is good because it doesn't look like Ramirez is going to have much interest out there, though the Giants are now a contender for him. The market is slimmer than Boras would have liked, almost certainly making Ramirez's next contract at fewer years and fewer dollars than both Ramirez and Boras were talking about at the end of the season.

I've read that the Yankees signing all these free agents doesn't conflict with their strategy of developing young players because they didn't have to give up prospects to sign these guys. But didn't they have to give up draft picks? Picks in the first three rounds? Sounds significant. In your opinion, did they hamper the long term strength of their farm system by signing all these free agents?
Pedro, Boston

A: With the signings of CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents, the Yankees did have to forfeit their first-, second-, and third-round draft picks in the upcoming draft. So, yes, that will certainly harm the team in building its farm system -- just as it would help the Sox if another team signed Jason Varitek, giving them two extra picks in this draft. I would say that signing those players isn't quite the same as trading away talent that has been through the minors as there is obviously quite a bit of attrition before players get to the majors. Ultimately, though, the signings of three major league stars, albeit to huge deals, are far more likely to produce a high level of major league performance than three draft picks that might not make it. I would say, given the signings, that the Yankees are OK with the tradeoff.

I am looking for you to put on your thinking cap. Now that the Red Sox have lost out on the Mark Teixeira Sweepstakes, who do you see the Red Sox targeting to fill the power void in the lineup? Could they upgrade at shortstop with a trade for J.J. Hardy or would they consider approaching the Brewers about Prince Fielder? My guess is that a trade is the most logical way to find that power the organization is in need of.
Will, Charlestown

A: At this point it's going to have to come via trade. There really aren't any hitters out there on the market, save for Manny Ramirez, who might be able to fill the Sox offensive issues. There's certainly a possibility that someone like Matt Holliday could be available if the A's don't contend through the middle of the season in a trade or he could be available as a free agent at the end of the season. Prince Fielder is a trade possibility, as well. The Sox are aware, whatever the team might say publicly, that they need an offensive boost at some point. That might come in the form of Lars Anderson, when he's ready to make the jump, or it might have to come through trade. But it is a need, and the team is concerned.

Have enjoyed your mailbag since Gordon Edes left. The question I have is about Brad Penny. Is he a Type A free agent? With his last three years combined output, I would figure he is. If that is the case, why would they go after him rather than Derek Lowe? I heard D-Lowe was being avoided based on his Type A status and only would be signed if another Type A was signed (alas...Texiera was not). Also, what was the reason behind his decline last year? Was it his weight or are there more serious concerns? Thanks again for giving me some good late-night iPhone reading.
David, Louisville, Ky.

A: Got to support that late-night reading habit. Brad Penny is a Type B free agent, which means that the Sox don't lose anything by signing him. The Sox went after Penny mostly because of the risk/reward possibilities. For not much money -- from $5 million to $8 million, depending on whether he reaches his performance bonuses -- the Sox get a pitcher who is capable of winning quite a few games, though I wouldn't get overly excited about that potential. He hasn't yet pitched in the American League, and clearly struggled with shoulder tendinitis last season, but there is the possibility of getting a lot for a minimal investment. As for Derek Lowe, the Sox have been interested all along in him, though they are unlikely to want to spend as much money on him as he'll command. (Though certainly the three-year, $36 million deal reportedly offered by the Mets is a far cry from the five years and $90 million Scott Boras was talking about earlier in the process.)

If you're talking about Penny's decline, that was due to an injury. He had trouble with soreness in his shoulder throughout the season, though nothing appeared amiss in MRIs. In talking to people with the Dodgers, it seemed that they weren't quite sure what was wrong with the shoulder -- he had his velocity in side sessions, then wasn't always able to convert it to game situations. It would appear that the Sox don't have concerns about Penny's health coming into this season.

Amalie! Happy post holidays! I'm hoping there will be a few people brought into camp in the spring to compete for the fifth starter position, but I have concerns. I've heard Smoltz's name being bandied about along with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe. Let's imagine that Beckett returns healthy and Lester continues his enormous progression. And Dice-K pitches more than 170 innings this season, do the Sox have enough -- right now -- to throw Clay Buchholz/Justin Masterson into the rotation and survive the Yanks and Rays? Second question -- Who is Boston's 4th and 5th starters on Opening Day?
Andrew, Reston, Va.

A: This question obviously came in before the Sox signed Brad Penny (or, rather, agreed to a deal pending a physical). At this point, it looks like Justin Masterson will be remaining in the bullpen, where he did a very good job stabilizing the eighth inning at the end of last season. This certainly strengthens the bullpen for the Sox. Penny will likely be viewed as the No. 4 starter for the Sox, with Tim Wakefield at No. 5. That would allow Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden a little more time to develop. Of course, there is always the possibility of injury on a number of fronts (Wakefield, Penny), as well as the possibility that the Sox could see enough out of Buchholz for him to need to start the season in the rotation. But right now? I'd give the rotation as Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Penny, and Wakefield.

When the $$ is at $20 million-$22 million per, or a diff of 10 million over 8 years, don't tell me Tex didn't want NY all along. Besides, the commute to and from the DC/MD area is much easier. Don't the best players choose to be where they want to play if all is reasonably the same?
John, North Yarmouth, Maine

A: In the end, it's like any other job. Location and lifestyle go into any job decision, just as salary does. While clearly $10 million in the context of a $180 million dollar deal over eight years isn't as much as $10 million to, say, you or me (I'm assuming you're not in Mark Teixeira's tax bracket), it's still a significant amount of money. I don't ever blame players for taking the most money, especially if that contract comes from a place where the player is going to win games. If you were offered two similar positions at two different companies in two different cities, there would likely be a number of factors that went into your decision. We probably won't ever know what went through Teixeira's mind (and Scott Boras's) during the negotiations, but it was his decision to make, and he made it. Hard to take issue with that.

Now is the time for MLB to update its rewards for Type A free agents. The Yankees should not lose their 2nd and 3rd round picks for signing three Type A free agents this winter. They should lose their first round pick in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Of course they also need to institute a salary cap. I am disgusted at ticket prices.
Jim, Spencer

A: I'd have to agree that MLB needs to do something about its compensation system for signing draft picks. Both the Brewers and Blue Jays were anticipating getting an additional first-round choice when they didn't retain CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, respectively. (The Brewers will get a second-round pick, and the Blue Jays will get a third-round pick.) The system, in fact, has many faults, not least being the Elias rankings that lead to the Type A and Type B classifications in the first place. But the fact that the signing of Mark Teixiera -- the highest ranked of the three Type As signed thus far by the Yankees -- pushed down the draft-pick compensation of the other clubs changes everything for those teams. Brewers general manager Doug Melvin was pretty vocal recently in voicing his unhappiness with the system to Buster Olney, and he's not alone.

I'm scared Amalie! I feel like we are looking at a 3rd place team. Papi needs more protection, who is the real Josh Beckett? Who is going to catch (please don't tell me Varitek)? It seems like as long as they sell out every game, they don't care. Coming close feels like success to the owners. The New Yorkers seem very strong to me! Your early thoughts?
JW, Haverhill

A: There's no question that the Yankees improved their team. (One would think that with an outlay of $400 million-plus that would have to be the case.) And the Rays should certainly challenge again at the top of the American League East with a pitching staff that should improve with the swap of Edwin Jackson for David Price. So how do the Sox fit in? I think Josh Beckett will improve on his 2008 season. He might not be back to his near-Cy Young season of the year before, but he should have an improved performance in 2009. As for the offense, with questions about David Ortiz and Mike Lowell, it should be OK, though likely not one of the great offenses that we've seen in recent years. My early thoughts are that this team should be good enough to contend for the postseason, depending as always on the health of its rotation, but that it's not quite good enough to make a significant run. But, of course, I've been wrong before ...