Law of averages

More worrisome, perhaps, is the tightness that Mike Lowell has experienced in his hip for the past two weeks. He, obviously, has now been placed on the 15-day disabled list, and the Sox expect him to return to the team after the All-Star break. The question is whether Lowell's hip issues will continue throughout the rest of the summer. The message from the Sox is that Lowell should be fine, and that the injection of Synvisc and the draining of 15 ccs of fluid will help get him back on the field. But will it recur? Hard to know at this moment.

Lowell's situation is likely to be a major influence on the Sox' decisions around the trading deadline, a definite storyline to watch in the next couple of weeks. But in the here-and-now, we've got minor league assessments and the Ramon Ramirez's cap and intensity on the Sox. Plus lots more.

So enjoy the Mailbag and the Fourth of July, and we'll see you back here in two weeks.

I first asked this on Twitter; the site Uni Watch recently noticed some small white writing on Ramon Ramirez's cap. On the site there are several screencaps of the pitcher. Can you tell us what he's got written on the cap?
Tim, Chelmsford

A: Thanks, Tim. Glad you took that wink, wink, nudge, nudge hint I gave on Twitter to ask this in the Mailbag. I asked Ramon Ramirez about the writing when we were in Baltimore, and he showed me the cap. On the top part (by the B) and the brim are written the words "Jesus is king of the world" in Spanish. It's written in some sort of white marker, but is smudged and a bit hard to read, though I could make it out. On the underside of the brim is written Matthew 4:4, also in Spanish. There's more written on the inside of the hat, where his forehead meets the cap, another prayer in Spanish. As you might be able to deduce, Ramirez is a very devout Christian.

In your answer to a question regarding top catching prospects in your most recent "Ask Amalie" you failed to mention Mark Wagner. He is hitting around 325 at AA Portland, has shown the ability to throw out about 40% of base stealers and is only 24 years old. In addition, I believe he has won at least one Red Sox monthly player award for his defense. What else does he need to do to be considered?
Dave Dawson, Marstons Mills

A: Mark Wagner, who was recently promoted to Triple A, certainly has shown promise, particularly this season. But I'm unconvinced that he will be the Sox catcher of the future. That's not to say that he won't be a major league catcher, or that he won't prove me wrong and succeed Jason Varitek. He could certainly do both. It will be very interesting to see what he can do in Pawtucket now that he's up there. He had very good numbers with Portland -- .301 average, three homers, 23 RBI, .410 on-base percentage -- but it was his second season in Double A, after he hit just .219 there last season. Also, it's good to remember that he turned 25 years old in June, which is shading toward the older side, though catchers certainly take longer to develop than other position players. He has an excellent arm, and is improving defensively, so there is quite a bit of talent there. But he does need work on his game calling and his management of a pitching staff, something he's continuing to try to improve as he starts his time in Pawtucket.

Hi Amalie, I really like your articles. I understand that Varitek is the captain now, but in a few years he will probably retire or leave the Red Sox. When he does leave, who do you see taking his spot as captain? Would the Red Sox even pick a new team captain? I thought I heard something about Varitek saying how Pedroia would make a good captain some day but I could be wrong. For me it seems like Kevin Youkilis would be a good choice, he's been around and seems like a popular guy. I don't know how they pick a captain, maybe you would know? Thanks in advance!
Kendra, New York

A: The Sox won't necessarily name another player as captain when Jason Varitek leaves the club, no matter how that ends up happening. In fact, the Sox have had only three captains since 1923, which should demonstrate just how rare the title has been. The two others were Jim Rice and Carl Yastrzemski, which demonstrates also the type of players the Sox have deemed captains. While I think that Dustin Pedroia certainly leads the club, I'm not sure about what his feelings would be in regard to being named a captain. In the end, though, I think the Sox reserve it for very special circumstances, and I doubt that they will hand out the title immediately after Varitek retires/leaves.

You talked briefly during your live chat about Beckett's intensity and we all remember Youk and Manny getting into it in the dugout after a bad at-bat for Youk.

I was wondering with so many high-intensity guys on the team (Beckett, Pedroia, Youk, Papelbon), do you get the sense that that persona ever rubs other teammates the wrong way? I could see more chill guys like Lowell or Drew getting annoyed by their hysterics (and vice-versa).
Evan, Milwaukee

A: I think there are always going to be instances when players get irritated with each other, and sometimes that does lead to spats. Remember, these guys are together all the time, at home and on the road, through ups and downs. I'm sure there are times when guys are like, "Dude, just forget it." In their relaxed moments, I would guess that everyone on the team values that intensity and that focus in many ways because it helps build a winning club. In tense moments, however, that can (and does) certainly boil over. Really, doesn't everyone get annoyed at just about everyone else at one point or another for one thing or another? But as for your inclusion of Dustin Pedroia among the most intense guys on the club, I don't think he quite belongs there. He's certainly intense, but in a very, very different way than the others. I would imagine it's hard to get too annoyed at him. To wit, a story from Terry Francona from the ninth inning of Monday night's game: "[The Orioles] are coming back, [expletive] Luke Scott's over there swinging like seven bats. I go out to the mound to get [Jonathan Papelbon] and, before I can take Ramon [Ramirez] out, Pedey says, 'You look like a moron.'"

First: Thanks for your insightful and knowledgeable commentary. With all the hype about the Sox pitching this year, if you look at the overall body of work to date, it is less than impressive; our rankings in some key categories are a bit disturbing.

Category (Rank): Earned Run Average: 4.14 (10), Runs Allowed: 302 (24), Saves: 19 (8), Strikeouts: 523 (4), OpBA: .264 (18), OBP: .337 (21), SLG: .406 (12), Run Support: 5.36 (3).

Now despite these stas we are of course in first place (a testament to the team as a whole), however going forward into the second half of the season, I am a bit concerned that these numbers will bear their fruit and the losses will begin stacking up. What's your take on this line of thinking? Is it simply a typical old school Red Sox fan who can't stop thinking negatively, or do these numbers hold some true value in assessing the rest of the year?
Bagoon, Los Osos, Calif.

A: There is truth in numbers, of course. But in this case, these numbers don't show the entire picture -- at least not the entire picture now. First of all, the Sox relievers were leading the majors with a 2.89 ERA this season before Tuesday's debacle. They're far and away the best corps of relievers in the game, though their numbers no longer reflect that. As for the starters, the Sox suffered through some poor starts at the beginning of the season, leading to both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester contributing higher-than-usual numbers. Brad Penny, too, had a couple of particularly bad starts early, and has pitched much better lately. Since May 30, the Sox have compiled a 3.32 ERA, allowing 65 earned runs in 176 innings. That's pretty good, no? So, despite the fact that the starters have a 4.58 ERA overall, which ranks 12th in the American League, they have the most wins in the majors leagues and the most strikeouts in baseball as a group. That means that a team with the best record in the AL has a pitching staff that's getting better. That's definitely a positive.

I am a Clay Buchholz fan but I must say that his pitching performances since his near no-hitter early this year have been mediocre at best. He waliked a lot of people in his match-up with Kazmir and blew a chance to turn some heads in a marquee situation. If Smoltz can't hack it, he will have his golden opportunity. So far he does not appear to be focused enough to take advantage of it. Your thoughts?
Fred C. Thurston, Washingtonville, N.Y.

A: He's in a tough spot, no question. But I wouldn't exactly say he's pitched poorly, as least as far as the numbers go. Since May 25, when he made that start against Louisville, Buchholz has allowed 10 runs in 32 2/3 innings, which works out to a 2.78 ERA. That's not exactly bombing. Buchholz feels he's ready to be in the majors, and he feels he deserves to be in the majors. It's hard to argue with that. He has a 5-1 record and a 1.90 ERA this season in Triple A, and multiple opposing managers (and the Sox' pitching coach) have agreed that he could probably slot into a lot of rotations right now. I think a call-up would focus Buchholz pretty quickly, especially after what he's gone through in the majors in the past. He seems to have matured since expecting to be pitching in Boston coming out of last spring training. We'll have to judge by results at the major league level -- which will come at some point -- but I wouldn't be too worried.

I am one of your fans who think your answer column should be more frequent, like once a week. My question: in discussions and rankings of Red Sox prospects, I have not seen anything on TJ Large who has an 0.78 ERA and pitching lights out for Portland. What is the take on him? Thank you.
John Pratt, Truckee Calif.

A: John, I wish there were enough hours in the day. As it is, it's a struggle to get the Mailbag out once every other week! Adam Kilgore actually wrote a story about T.J. Large at the end of May, discussing how a surgery in 2004 gave him a natural cutter because of some moved tendons. Large has clearly done well in the organization throwing a cutter about 80 percent of the time on his way to a 3-0 record and a 0.93 ERA. Batters are hitting .203 against him at Portland. While he's on the older side, at 26, he's definitely made a statement this season. He's certainly not in the mix of high-level prospects, but there's a small chance he could help the Sox at some point.

Hi Amalie, I know that Jason Bay is probably a hot topic in your mail bag but... I do not understand why the Sox are not pro-active in his case. Bay's numbers are good and he's definitely a good presence in the lockeroom. I don't think the Sox can find a better player on the free agent market and trading for one will cost a premium. Do the Sox are afraid to give a 3-4 years deal to a guy who's on the verge to be 32 years old this year? Keep up the excellent work !!!
Luc, Montreal, Quebec

A: Well, Luc, things haven't exactly been going well for Jason Bay lately. He went 0-for-15 in the Orioles series, capping it with five strikeouts in the finale. He also has just two hits in his last 30 at bats, with 14 strikeouts. That being said, the slump means nothing in the overall picture of whether the Sox will sign Bay to an extension. The two sides are going to sit down during the All-Star break, according to our own Tony Massarotti, and attempt to work out a deal. The Sox have been willing to talk during the season in the past, and this appears to be no exception. I think the team isn't afraid to give the years to Bay, the Sox would just rather not pay above market value. Believe me, the team knows that the Yankees will be looking for a left fielder next season, and I think they'd like to lock up Bay at a price that would make sense for them. My feeling is that he'll be back next season because the Sox need him and he fits the team perfectly, but its far from a guarantee.

Hi Amalie, I read a scouts remark about the Braves rookie, Tommy Hanson. He said that they might get 2/3 good years out of him and then the kid might have problems because he's a short arm thrower like he's throwing darts . Made me think of Michael Bowden. Do the Sox have the same concerns about his motion? It has to put a lot of stain over the long term. Do you see him as more trade bait or honest prospect? Thanks.
Joe, Dartmouth

A: The Sox had questions about Michael Bowden's arm motion as well when they drafted him. As Portland pitching coach Mike Cather once told me, it's a delivery that has "got a lot of funk built into it." So the team sent Bowden (as well as fellow 2005 draftee Clay Buchholz) down to Birmingham, Ala., to be evaluated by Dr. James Andrews in spring training of 2006. After the pair threw full bullpens in the biomechanics lab in Birmingham, Bowden told me that it was determined that there was no additional stress being placed on his arm, and therefore no need to alter the delivery. Bowden told me it was developed when he was younger as he just did what felt natural, since his family didn't have the money for pitching coaches, or anything of that nature. Even though Bowden's been extremely inconsistent this season, with a 3-4 record and 3.39 ERA, I still believe he has a future in the big leagues at the back of a rotation.

With Junichi Tazawa getting picked for the Futures Game All Star and having a very good first season for AA, a 7-4 record with a 2.92 ERA and 71 SO when do you think he will get the promotion to AAA and eventually the big leagues. My second question is do they still see him as a starter because it looks like it’s going to be hard to fit him in the rotation anytime in the next couple years. Also how impressed have they been with him being so good this quick because most people including me thought it was going to take longer than this.
Cody Bedell, New Baltimore, MI

A: Junichi Tazawa has been extremely impressive, from spring training on. He might just have been the best pitcher in the spring in a close race between him and Clay Buchholz. And it hasn't stopped in Double A, with Tazawa being named to the Eastern League All-Star team. He was recently placed on the disabled list (not injured) to allow him to skip a start, and returned on Wednesday, giving up three runs (one earned) and striking out six in five innings in a Portland loss. His ERA is now 2.85. It's possible that he could be promoted to Triple A in the next month, though I don't have any particular information to support that. He came advertised as a guy that might be able to either start or relieve, though the Sox will keep him a starter as long as possible for the increased value in that role.

Any reason why you and the Globe decided not to cover the Papelbon story this week? This "speak first, think later" guy first says he'd be willing to pitch for the the Yankees and then takes the unusual step of gathering an impromptu personal press conference to do damage control and say "why would I want to pitch anywhere else." It's quite apparent that he's getting an 18-month head start on his free agent contract negotiations rather than just focusing on the job at hand. Could it be that the Globe is eschewing its journalistic integrity because they don't want Fenway fans booing Papelbon, i.e. one of their employees?
Bill, Lancaster

A: Bill, perhaps you missed it. I wrote about Jonathan Papelbon's comments in response to his statements on Sirius XM radio. It was the second item in my notebook the morning after he made the statements, following a note about John Smoltz and the Braves, who had arrived in town that day. I've been extremely surprised about the response to Papelbon's statements, however. Believe me, neither I nor any of my colleagues would not report on any story relating to the Red Sox because it's negative toward the team or controversial. I have absolutely no stake in how the team does, how fans receive the team, or what happens in contract negotiations between the team and players. That's certainly not an issue. But, beyond that, I wanted to address Papelbon's comments. Essentially he said in the first interview that, at the end of his service to the Red Sox, he would pitch in New York -- or for any other team. That's not exactly earth shattering. He's a baseball player. He wants to play baseball. If it doesn't work out with the Sox -- and that could be a factor of him not wanting to play in Boston or the Red Sox not wanting to pay him -- he'll play for another team. What would you expect him to do? Should he retire if the Sox don't sign him? He never said that he particularly wanted to pitch for the Yankees, and reiterated that in his later comments. He made sure that we, the media, and you, the fans, know that he's committed to the Sox as long as they control his rights and as long as they have him under contract. And, just so it's clear, the media asked him about the comments. He didn't gather us for a press conference. If he had said, "I want to pitch for the Yankees," I'd be covering that and chastising him for it. But he didn't say anything of that nature.

Hi Amalie. This question may wind up getting answered as the week progresses, but right now (Monday afternoon) it seems pertinent. With the concern over Lowell's hip and the possibility of a DL trip hanging over him, what options do the Sox have at 3B if he goes down for an extended period of time? I had thought that maybe Nick Green could be moved over to 3rd, leaving Youk and first, and Lowrie back at SS. Is Green a viable option at the hot corner, or would the Sox need to trade for someone?
Nate, Arlington, Va.

A: Well, since the question was asked, Mike Lowell has ended up on the disabled list. I think it's clear that the best option for the Sox at third base is Kevin Youkilis at the moment. While Terry Francona said on Monday that Nick Green could see some time at third, the team would prefer to keep Green at shortstop, where he's done very well defensively lately. That leaves either Mark Kotsay or Jeff Bailey at first base, though there ought to be some minor concern over Kotsay's calf, which tightened up on him in Wednesday's game. The other major problem is that Jed Lowrie isn't available. He's still working to come back from his wrist surgery in a rehab that seems like it has and will go on forever. The Sox were thinking that Lowrie wouldn't be back through the All-Star game, and that wasn't even including the knee injury that has slowed his progress and which has him back in Boston today to get checked out by the team's rehabilitation coordinator. So, yes, Green is viable as an emergency option, but the team really needs to figure out the Lowell situation. Right now the word is that Lowell will be fine after the break. But if he's not, the Sox will have to go out and get a third baseman or first baseman, a flexibility they have because of Youkilis. That would be when a guy like Nick Johnson would come into play.

Amalie, I don't understand why the Red Sox are more interested in John Smoltz than Clay Buchholz. The Braves are no dummies and they certainly know Smoltz. If they decided to not re-sign him after 20 years, it should be a good sign that we are not likely to get much from him. In any case, why not give Buchholz another shot? The upside potential is a lot greater than John Smoltz. The Sox are smart too, so I suspect there is a problem with Buccholz (attitude?) that we don't know about. Your thoughts on all this?
Marc Gudema, Newton

A: Ultimately, of course, the Sox are more interested in Clay Buchholz than John Smoltz. For the short term, the Sox shored up their depth with a relatively low cost signing. They didn't give Smoltz multiple years, nor did they give him an overwhelming contract. That allows him to come back from his shoulder surgery and prove (or not) that he can come back and pitch and it gives the Sox one of the best-ever postseason pitchers on their roster. Essentially, he was signed for October, and that's when the Sox hope that he'll be at his best. Meanwhile, the team wasn't wrong when it expected at least one of its pitchers to go down. So far it's been Daisuke Matsuzaka. But it easily might be someone else -- Tim Wakefield hasn't finished the last two seasons with the team, after all -- and that will open a spot for Buchholz. Any team needs depth in its rotation, and the Sox just happen to have more than others. The funny thing is the problem so far has been that everyone has panned out. Brad Penny could have been a flop, which would have been Buchholz's spot, or someone might have gotten injured, which would have been Buchholz's spot. Don't worry, Buchholz is the future for the Sox.