Stoking the Hot Stove

That's right. Free agency started last night at midnight, which means the Hot Stove season has officially kicked off. We'll see in time what the Red Sox decide to do, whether that involves Mark Teixeira or Jason Varitek or Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Derek Lowe or (like last offseason) virtually nothing at all. You'll remember the big acquisition before 2008 was ... Sean Casey. Though, yes, the fact that the team doesn't have a starting catcher on the roster means it has to do something.

For now, with the offseason still young, we've got questions about CC Sabathia's bust potential, Coco Crisp's possible future with (or without) the Sox, and a question about the up-and-comers in the farm system.

The plan is to run the mailbag every two weeks for now, so continue to post those questions. Just to let everyone know, when you want a question to be considered for the mailbag, please post it on the online form and not in a personal email to my Globe address. (It's much, much easier that way.)

Thanks for reading, as always. Please enjoy.

Hi Amalie - I'm wondering what you think of CC Sabathia. I've heard the Yanks are going to offer him more than Santana money - I think this is a huge mistake. CC was getting spanked in the AL last year, and the year before that, we rocked him in the playoffs. If he pitches in the AL East next year, I predict he'll have like 10-12 wins, a +4.00 ERA, and be viewed as a bust. Your thoughts?
Zack, Somerville

Hi Zack. I think that assessment is incredibly unfair to CC Sabathia, who put a huge payout in jeopardy by allowing the Brewers to pitch him on three days rest for nearly the final month of the season. Yes, he started out slowly last season in the American League, but he came over to the National League and pitched well enough to get Cy Young votes after just half a season. How can you argue with an 11-2 record and 1.65 ERA in 17 starts with Milwaukee, especially given how many he made down the stretch? Now, of course pitching in the NL is easier than pitching in the AL. And Sabathia has struggled in the postseason the past two years. But I think it would be extremely foolish to think a lefty with an ERA at or less than 3.22 for the past three seasons will be a bust. Oh, and he won the Cy Young award the year before in the AL.

With all the talk about Varitek - will he stay, will he go, is he worth it, who would we get, etc., where is the love for Kevin Cash? Are guys like Laird or Salty really that much better than Cash? Hasn't he learned anything about game-calling and handling pitchers by watching Jason Varitek? Doesn't he already know our pitchers pretty well, both in the majors and at Pawtucket? The guy has a good arm and good hands. He can hit for power and hasn't really had a chance to play very much. He's still young and healthy. I don't exactly get why everyone seems so desperate to get a catcher from Texas or wherever with Cash already on hand. Is it a leadership issue? Don't you think in another year or two he could easily be ready to be our starting catcher?
Snuffy, North Carolina

Nope, he couldn't. While Cash is a serviceable backup catcher -- and a very good knuckleball catcher -- he's nothing more than that. His career average in parts of six seasons in the major leagues is .184. With the dearth of good catching talent currently in the major leagues, offense can't always be a premium at the position. Nevertheless, the Red Sox expect better than that offensively from their starter. With Varitek's run either done, or a few years from its end, the Sox have to settle on a successor in the near future. That's why the talk of Saltalamacchia has heated up (as well as Taylor Teagarden, with Gerald Laird lagging behind because of a theory that some pitchers aren't all that keen about throwing to him). So while Cash may be back next season along with Tim Wakefield, he isn't a possibility as the starter.

Amalie -- Who do you think will be my personal catcher next year? With all the talk about new catchers, nothing has been mentioned about someone besides Cash working with me. And who will be the other starter? Is Justin Masterson locked in the bullpen for awhile, with Derek Lowe making a comeback or bringing in someone else? And please talk to Terry Francona about not giving all the regulars the day off when I pitch.
Tim

Hey, Tim. Glad to see you're checking in with the mailbag. (Note, this is obviously not Wakefield, for those of you who might be confused. Just thought I'd spell it out.) I think you've got a good chance to have Kevin Cash back as your personal catcher, though I wouldn't call it a lock at this point. He did a good job with you, taking over for Doug Mirabelli, and quieting concerns of a Josh Bard repeat (at least from the passed ball perspective).

As for the other starter issue, the Sox have time to wait on that one and see what happens with the free agent market. These are uncertain times in the economy for those of us not making ballplayer salaries, as well as for the franchises themselves. It seems that, outside of the biggest names (Sabathia, Teixeira), there could be a settling of the type of big-time salaries we've seen in recent offseasons. That could open things up for the Sox, one of the teams expected to have some money to spend, in terms of free agents like Derek Lowe. The former Sox starter and closer has, obviously, expressed interest in coming back to Boston. As for Masterson, the team doesn't need to lock him into either the starting rotation or the bullpen until spring training. From what I've been told, it appears likely that he will be stretched out in spring training, as Jonathan Papelbon has been in recent years, leaving him open to either role. It's a huge advantage for the Sox to be able to slot him into whichever spot they need more, depending on free agent acquisitions and injuries.

Amalie, one name I haven't heard being connected to the Sox yet, but who would be a great fit, is Rafael Furcal. Assuming they find a taker for Julio Lugo (take a shot at Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson?), Furcal would be a great leadoff hitter and an excellent upgrade defensively at SS. Then they could let Jacoby Ellsbury come along slowly for a few years and bat lower in the order and then have Jed Lowrie as a really good utility guy. It seems that now would be a great time to get Furcal due to his back surgery making teams worry -- but he's healthy now.
Bob, Mountain View, Calif.

You're right. Furcal is healthy at this point, which is why he's drawing so much interest from other teams. It is, in fact, also why the Sox think there might be the possibility of a market for Lugo. I would say that Furcal would be an extremely long shot for the Sox (as would Khalil Greene, who I've gotten some questions about), who could go with the combination of Lugo and Lowrie or the combination of Lowrie and Alex Cora. While there's no burning necessity to get rid of Lugo, the Sox would do it if the numbers worked out, as they feel they can go with the Lowrie-Cora combination and have a workable shortstop situation.

Amalie, I was wondering, since Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Manny Ramirez worked out at the API in Phoenix last year and ALL had great numbers in the 2008 season, are there any plans for the Red Sox front office to entice more players to go to API during the offseason? With today's costs and nagging injuries that a few players had this past season, I would think that the Red Sox would pick up the tab for several of the top prospects and anyone else on the 40-man roster (i.e., specifically Josh Beckett, who appeared to be out of shape in spring training). What do you think?
Dean, Rouses Point, NY

The Sox, in fact, have already done this. I'm not sure if they're sending any of their prospects this offseason to API, but the Sox did send both Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden to the API in Pensacola, Fla., last winter. Lowrie is also likely to head to API in Phoenix (his offseason home) this winter. With the veteran players, like a Beckett, that decision appears to be up to the individual player. But the Sox seemed to like Beckett's offseason program enough last winter to discuss having Buchholz go down to observe him in Texas.

Hello from the far north. There are quite a few of us from Boston here and supporters of Boston sports teams. Love your mailbag and your video reports to keep us informed of what and where the Red Sox are. Two quick questions:

1. Do you think the Sox will succeed in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira?

2. Do you know anything about the Finnish version of baseball?

The Finns do play American baseball here and they are pretty talented. Come visit Helsinki, you will love it!
Donald, Helsinki, Finland

Thanks for the invite to Helsinki. Not sure it's in my travel plans for the near future, but I'll keep it in mind. I think the Sox would like to get Mark Teixeira. That extra bat in the lineup would be huge for this team, as David Ortiz discussed earlier this week. However, the signing for the Sox is not the same sort of necessity it is for the Yankees or Angels. So, while I think they're serious in their pursuit, I think they aren't likely to be the favorite to land Teixeira, especially with the other moves that would require. (Read, moving Mike Lowell.)

Considering that neither Crisp (played fairly well in the playoffs) nor Ellsbury performed that well at the plate during the regular season (defensively both outstanding), do you think there is any chance that both of them could be traded, and/or just Crisp or Ellsbury alone?
Michael, Uxbridge

They won't both be traded, as that would leave the Sox with a big void in center field. But there's a good chance that Crisp could be gone by the time the Sox head to spring training. The Sox have found interest in Crisp from other clubs, especially after an excellent postseason in which he flipped the 2007 playoffs around (Ellsbury in for Crisp to Crisp in for Ellsbury). So there's a distinct possibility that the Sox could use Crisp to fill a hole on their roster. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is likely to be the center fielder going forward, and should mature offensively as he gets even more time in the major leagues.

Beckett, not the writer, the pitcher. Was he or wasn't he in shape when he reported to spring training? There was that famous picture of him throwing in spring training with several pounds of flesh drooping out over his workout pants (sorry for the image), and the insinuations by a number of people that his many injuries was the result of not being in shape. Then there was the talk about his work out routine that was featured in a magazine, and Curt Schilling's comments on a posting board that Beckett was in shape at spring training. Of course, being in shape to Schilling could mean just the ability to walk to the mound within three minutes. So just what is it? Red Sox Nation needs to know. Just one of those years for him, or a tale of two stomachs?
George, Toppenish, Wash.

Not having seen the results of any fitness tests for Beckett, I can't rely on any statistical measure. I do think that particular photo of Beckett wasn't a fair judge of the shape he was in during spring training. I didn't see any other evidence that Beckett was particularly overweight, whether in other photographs or in person. But could fitness have contributed to his offseason in 2008? Sure, that's a possibility. There's no question that he wasn't the pitcher he was the previous season. So we'll see if Beckett can come back with a dedicated winter conditioning program and turn around his results in the upcoming season.

Am I correct in understanding that the Red Sox still owe Manny $2 million a year until his 55th birthday? I thought I read that way back when they signed him in 2000. As part of his acrimonious exit on July 31 (not to mention his unwillingness to play), did Manny and Sith Boras waive that part of the deal or are the Sox stuck with it?
Tim, West Brookfied

According to the contract Manny Ramirez signed with the Red Sox before the 2001 season, there were deferrals in the annual payments that do indeed mean Ramirez will be earning approximately $2 million per year from the Sox until 2026 (starting in 2011). And, yes, that's 16 more years of payments to Ramirez from the Sox.

Hi Amalie, with the 2008 season over, I was wondering if you could tell us when the AL MVP is announced and if you think Dustin Pedroia actually has a legitimate shot of winning. Thanks.
Brian, West Roxbury

Brian, the American League MVP award will be announced on Tuesday, at which time Pedroia will be flying off to Mexico for a family vacation. Though I did not have an MVP vote this season -- I had Manager of the Year and voted for Joe Maddon -- I do think Pedroia has a chance to win the MVP. The biggest problem for him may be Kevin Youkilis, in terms of votes that might have been split between the two Sox players. There definitely wasn't a major front-runner for the MVP this season, unlike Alex Rodriguez last year, which could enable a rather nontraditional (at least lately) MVP candidate in Pedroia.

What are the chances the Red Sox could move Josh Beckett? Let's face it, he is not the dominant ace his reputation would suggest. So if he is overvalued in the market, and has a fairly cheap contract, wouldn't the Sox be able to trade him for another team's entire farm system, and still pretty easily be able to replace his 4.03 ERA and 12 wins?
Nick O., Augusta, Maine

Honestly? Not going to happen. My best guess is that Beckett won't be replicating his 2008 season in 2009. But, however he pitches next season, I would say there will be a 99.99 percent chance he'll be doing it for the Red Sox.

Just wondering if you think there's a good chance the Sox will be able to re-sign Mark Kotsay and Paul Byrd this offseason? Kotsay could be the number 4 outfielder next year if Coco is traded away. Between giving all 3 outfielders a breather and getting in some games at 1st base I could see him getting 300 at bats next season. Do you think he'd be agreeable to such a role? As for Byrd I don't think Wakefield is capable of starting 30 games and pitching 200 innings anymore. His shoulder has broken down late in the season for 2 years in a row. I'd like to see Bryd split 30 starts with Wake and have them both throw about 140 innings next season. Any chance of that happening?
Robert, Portland, Maine

The Sox would love to be able to sign Mark Kotsay as a fourth outfielder/first baseman type, but that's definitely not Kotsay's first choice. He -- and rightly so -- believes that there should be a starting spot for him in an outfield. So he'll do his best to land a center fielder or right fielder spot before even considering a situation in which he would serve as a backup. As for Byrd, the Sox are likely to add another starter to their rotation in addition to Wakefield. That could potentially be Byrd, though there are other, better options out there.

Would the Sox get draft picks if Varitek signs elsewhere?
Ben Ben the Fisherman, Kensington, Md.

Yes, the Sox would get draft picks. Because Varitek was classified as a Type A free agent (as opposed to a Type B), the Red Sox would receive a draft pick plus a compensation pick that comes in between the first and second rounds of the draft. In addition to Varitek, Byrd is a B. None of the other Sox free agents got a classification. A "B" free agent is worth a compensation pick (after the Type A compensation picks).

Saw recently that resale value of Sox ALCS tickets took a huge hit. Apparently, the legal ticket agencies had to sell at or below face value to just get rid of the inventory. This may be the first warning shot that the economic good times may be slowing for the Sox. What do you think? We will finally see an end to home sell out streak? Is the Henry/Werner/Lucchino/Epstein quad concerned? How close are we to the end of the Fenway Park expansion/improvements?
Mike, The Woodlands, Texas

I think it would be hard to look at the current economic situation -- in baseball or outside of it -- and think that the economic boom times are continuing for anyone. That obviously includes the Red Sox. I think the ownership group took the first step in acknowledging that fact by freezing ticket prices for this upcoming season. While that won't help most people, for whom the prices are often already too high, that does say that the ownership understands that the park isn't going to sell itself out forever. Since the two World Series titles, I do think a smidge of complacency has set in among the fan base. And, yes, I think there's a chance that the sellout streak could end, especially if something goes wrong and the Sox find themselves out of it late in the season. Of all the major league clubs, however, the Sox are in just about the best position of any team not opening a new ballpark in 2009.

First off, I love your writing! My question is about Sox minor league pitcher Daniel Bard. He made tremendous progress this season. Do you see a spot for him on the major league team next season? And how far off do you think 1st baseman Lars Anderson is from being a part of the big league club? Thank you Amalie! You rule!
Steve, Methuen

No, Steve, you rule. Gotta love the minor league questions. So close to my heart. (In fact, if there's enough interest, we may do an all-minors mailbag as the Hot Stove season continues on into the winter.) As for Bard, I posed the question to director of player development Mike Hazen, who wrote in an e-mail, "If things continue to progress for Daniel, I think seeing him at some point in 2009 is more than reasonable. The plan right now will be to continue the progression out of the bullpen in order to be able to impact the ML pen in multiple roles." So there's definitely a chance. As for Lars Anderson, I would estimate an arrival sometime around 2010. Anderson just turned 21 late in September, and there would hardly be a reason to rush him up to the big leagues.

With that, see you all back here in two weeks.