The calm before the storm?
Free agents may soon get moving
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It might be Black Friday, but don't expect any deals on the free agent market quite yet. It's been quite the slow process this season, with only minor signings and trades coming to pass so far, like the Red Sox' swap of Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez. It seems that the big free agents need to fall -- like CC Sabathia -- before the rest of the market can begin to get underway. A couple of agents I've spoken with in the past week have been under the impression that this next week could start things moving as we quickly advance toward the winter meetings, which start on Dec. 8 in Las Vegas.
True? We'll see.
For now, we've got questions about deals for the younger members of the Red Sox, about switching around the team's infield, and free agents from A.J. Burnett to Junichi Tazawa to Francisco Rodriguez. And, of course, there's always lots of interest in the Sox catching situation. Thanks for all the questions. I got an amazing 130-plus over the last two weeks. So if I didn't answer yours, feel free to submit one for the next mailbag. There were some great questions that I simply wasn't able to answer due to time constraints!
So get more in and, hopefully, by the time we meet back here in two weeks there will be lots more going on and lots more news on the free agent and trade front, given that the winter meetings will be over at that point. Until then . . . enjoy. Hope you all had a very happy Thanksgiving.
He's got a Rookie of the Year award, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glove, and now an MVP award. Surely the Red Sox have got to be thinking of signing Pedroia to an Evan Longoria-esque long term deal, right?
Adam, Chicago
A: Hard to argue with those stats, huh? The Sox are speaking with certain of their younger players about potential long-term deals this offseason, though the team is keeping a lid on the names of those they're targeting. But Dustin Pedroia (along with Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester) is a candidate for the Sox to try to lock down with a long-term contract.
With the Red Sox brass's pride in their recent draft results, will draft choices be a bigger factor than cash in their thinking? Notably they could forfeit a top 50 choice by signing Texieira or perhaps Lowe but gain two top-50 picks if Varitek signs elsewhere. How important is this factor to Epstein et al?
Alan, Newport R.I.
A: Draft picks have certainly become a bigger factor in recent years as the draft -- and homegrown talent -- has increased in importance. I'd say that the draft picks that the team gains or loses by signing top talent are not deal-breakers. Essentially, the Sox wouldn't shy away from signing Mark Teixeira because of the draft pick that they would have to give up. If you'll recall, the Sox gave up a first-round pick for signing Julio Lugo. Then again, the monster 2005 draft, which has so far seen Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, and Michael Bowden reach the major leagues, was made possible by the losses of Orlando Cabrera, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Lowe. The signing or non-signing of Jason Varitek will likely have much more to do with the team's decision on what it needs at the catching position -- and what demands Scott Boras makes.
Would the Sox consider moving Pedroia to short, Youkilis to second to make room for Teixeira at first without having to move Lowell? If Youk can play second that would make for a pretty good infield and a heck of an offensive lineup.
Ed M., Getzville, N.Y.
A: I've heard a lot of talk of switching Kevin Youkilis's position. Why would the Red Sox weaken their infield defense in that way? In this scenario, the Sox would be moving two Gold Glove infielders -- Dustin Pedroia at second and Youkilis at first -- to other positions. I'd say that if Youkilis is changing positions in the infield, it would only be to third base. He has shown that he can play both third and first (and in some ways prefers to play third, actually), but the middle infield is out for him.
Hey Amalie, great work with the Sox coverage! I especially love the minor league insight as it applies to our Old Towne Team. On that note, my question is if/when the Sox acquire Tazawa and he is obviously placed in the minors somewhere, where do you think he ranks in terms of this years draft class. If he were in this years draft would he have been the No. 1 pick? A top-ten guy? First rounder? I am intrigued by this guy, and think with a few years in the minors he could be a real steal.
Jamie L., Wallingford, Conn.
A: Thanks! I wouldn't get too excited about Tazawa quite yet. From what I've heard, he definitely needs some time in the minors to develop. I'm not sure I would put him nearly as high as you have him. Hard to judge exactly what he's got, with the somewhat conflicting reports coming out of Japan, but I'd put him in the mid-range of Sox prospects. Certainly not a No. 1-type pick.
With the Red Sox need of at least one good catching prospect, it seems as though the options they have been looking at are all going to need a few years to fully develop. Are there any teams with a young proven catcher (Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh), who would be a possible trading partner with the Red Sox?
Buddy, Wagoner, Okla.
A: May I suggest Texas? The Rangers have by far the biggest bounty at the catching position, with Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden. Saltalamacchia, for one, has been tearing it up in the Dominican, making him ever more attractive for a team with a catching void. The Sox aren't really in the market for a catcher who is going to take a while to develop. The team, after all, doesn't have a starter for 2009 at the moment. Re-signing Jason Varitek would give them a little bit of a break, but they don't want him for long enough for a young catcher to develop. The Sox need someone who is ready now or within a year of being ready to start in the majors.
Hi Amalie, thank you for reading this. The talk of Junichi Tazawa got me wondering whether the Japanese media still obsess over Dice-K. Do Japanese baseball fans still follow him closely, or was it just a national fad? I also wonder if there is any resentment among their baseball community over the growing number of players departing for the west. It seems to me they have a much more limited reservoir of talent over there, and a decline in overall competitiveness in the major leagues could result. What are your thoughts? Thank you and happy holidays.
Nathan B., North Adams
A: Happy holidays to you as well. The obsession with Daisuke Matsuzaka has certainly lessened in the past few years. While there is still great interest in him and everything he does, the drop off was noticeable between his first moments in the United States -- I'm not sure George Kottaras will ever forget the flash bulbs going off as he caught Matsuzaka for the first time in the US -- and last season. There is still a dedicated traveling Japanese media contingent that documents him, but it's far smaller than it was initially. Even with his impressive performance this season, it doesn't seem as if the crew will be back to 2007 levels at any point soon. As for the drain on talent from Japan to the US, there are those in Japan who aren't happy at all about the prospect. I think those who support the Japanese leagues, Bobby Valentine among them, aren't entirely supportive about losing some of their best players to the US. But it's going to continue to happen, given the opportunities that exist in MLB for talent and the growing interest in scouting in Japan and Asia.
A.J. Burnett is a name that has been thrown around a lot so far during this off season for several clubs. One name that hasn't been mentioned much, however, is Ben Sheets. This is after Sheets actually had similar numbers, if not better in some categories, than Burnett. It seems only reason Sheets isn't as highly regarded is because he missed his last three starts to an injury which is said to be minimal. Do you think there's any chance that the Sox would go after Sheets, who may not command as big a contract as Burnett?
Chris G., Providence, R.I.
A: As much of a risk as A.J. Burnett is, Ben Sheets is that much bigger of a risk. Sheets, while an exceptional talent when he's on the field, hasn't been able to prove that he can consistently pitch. Though he made 31 starts this season, he broke down at the end. And between 2005 and 2007, Sheets never made more than 24 starts, for a combined 63 starts in three seasons. When he's on, he can dominate. I'm not sure that the Sox are particularly interested in the brittle Sheets, though they do seem to have at least a certain level of interest in Burnett. The team has been in touch with Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker, and Burnett is currently sorting through his offers. It's likely that all these deals -- from Burnett to Sheets -- won't fall into place until after CC Sabathia decides where he's playing this upcoming season.
I have sort of a touchy question: what's with the lack of Latin players on the Red Sox? With the trade of Manny, Ortiz became the sole Latin player in their starting 9. There have no starting pitchers of Latin descent and out of the bullpen there is only Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarman (who is of Dominican descent but was born in Boston). And none of their big up-and-coming prospects are (talking Buchholz, Bowden, Bard, Anderson, Reddick). Now, I know Boston has a bad reputation when it comes to race relations and I'm not by any means saying it's intentional, I was just wondering what your thoughts on the matter were.
Evan S., Milwaukee, Wis.
A: There's no question that the Red Sox have gotten whiter lately. You're not the only one to notice or to write about the issue. With the trade of Coco Crisp, there isn't a single black player on the Red Sox at this point. That trade, of course, did bring Ramon Ramirez to the Sox. (Ramirez is from the Dominican Republic.) The Sox still have their academy in the Dominican Republic and have increased their scouting and talent acquisition in the Pacific Rim, where they're in hot pursuit of Junichi Tazawa. You did, however, leave out both Julio Lugo and Mike Lowell, who are both Latin. As for an explanation, I don't have one. A lack of black players is happening all around baseball, with the exception of a few specific teams, but I would agree that there are fewer minorities on the Red Sox current roster than there used to be.
Has there been any discussion of going after K-Rod and trying to move Papelbon into the starting rotation again? This seems very cost effective to me as great starting pitchers will probably cost more than the 15 million a year that K-Rod is asking for.
Brent H., American Fork, Utah
A: That's a pretty unlikely scenario. I haven't heard anything about that. I'd say that Jonathan Papelbon is in the bullpen for the long haul. After flirting with a return to the starting rotation a couple of years ago, Papelbon has pretty much solidified his spot as the Red Sox closer for as long as he's with the team. Though I'd never say never, this scenario doesn't seem to offer a whole lot to the Red Sox. That money would be far better spent on an actual starter than Francisco Rodriguez, about whom there are some questions even with the incredible season he put up in 2008.
While people are talking about Mark Kotsay as a fourth outfielder wouldn't it make sense to get a righthanded bat for the fourth outfield spot? Ellsbury and Drew are lefties and are probably going to be on the DL or need a seat against LHP more than Bay. Wouldn't Baldelli make more sense?
Mike, Gulf Breeze, Fla.
A: You're right. The Sox aren't looking for a lefty as their fourth outfielder. They're looking for a righthanded hitter off the bench, and Rocco Baldelli's name is one that has definitely come up. There are, of course, issues with Baldelli because he can't play every day. With the injury-prone J.D. Drew in right field, that takes on added importance. If Drew were to go down, Baldelli can't exactly pick up the slack. He gets fatigued too quickly with his mitochondrial disorder. But Baldelli is definitely on the list for the Sox.
Amalie, how does a reporter deal with quotes from Scott Boras? I understand that he represents a lot of important free agents, so you can't ignore him, but at the same time everything out of his mouth is calculated hype, bordering on total nonsense. Isn't the journalist in you tempted to ignore or ridicule him? Heck, at least he deserves a few shots for seeking a "Zito contract" for Burnett. Is that supposed to help? Should Derek Lowe be seeking "Dreifort money?"
Chris F.
A: Chris, it's not just Scott Boras. At this time of year, everyone has an agenda -- front office people, agents, scouts, everyone. There's a lot of bluster thrown out there by a lot of people. It mostly takes knowledge of a reporter's personal relationship with a source, and enough sources to give a well-rounded view of a situation, whether it be a potential trade or potential free agent signing. Just to let you know, though, that Boras isn't the agent for A.J. Burnett. Darek Braunecker represents the former Blue Jays pitcher.
What type of free agent is 'Tek? If he walks, would the Sox pick up any draft picks? Certainly Boras thinks he is a Type A, but not sure if MLB agrees.
Scott K., Philadelphia, Pa.
A: Scott, Jason Varitek is a Type A free agent. If the Sox do offer him arbitration -- which they are expected to do -- and he declines, the Sox will pick up two draft picks as compensation.
Amalie, now that the Sox are in the market for a fourth outfielder, preferably a right-handed hitter who can play good defense, fill in at CF and provide occasional power, wouldn't this be the perfect time to bring Gabe Kapler back to the team? Or did he leave the organization under a cloud?
Alex K.
A: I know Gabe Kapler would love to come back to the organization. I'm not sure he's at the top of the Red Sox list, but in an offseason in which there isn't a whole lot out there in terms of righthanded fourth outfielders, it's a name that the Sox will be considering. I'd say, though, that he probably won't end up being the signing to fill that spot for the Sox.
Amalie, there has been a lot of talk about the Sox needing to obtain a catcher, even if it's a young catcher to groom as a future replacement for 'Tek. How likely is it that George Kottaras of the PawSox will fill that role? If the Red Sox aren't able to keep Varitek, why wouldn't they just trade for a veteran catcher as a bridge to Kottaras down the road?
Rocky M., Charlottesville, Va.
A: At this point, George Kottaras is not an option. Though he does have a bat, his defensive skills are lagging. He has improved, from what I've heard, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll top out as a backup in the major leagues. The Sox are essentially acting as if they don't have anyone in the system that is close to being ready a major league starting job, likely leaving Dusty Brown and Kottaras out of luck. There are a few potential options lower in the minors, like Mark Wagner and Luis Exposito, but both players are years away from being ready for major league duty. That leaves the Sox with the need to either re-sign Jason Varitek and/or find a replacement for him who is ready or nearly ready.
In your Nov. 14 mailbag there was much interest expressed in "If we acquire Teixeira, what happens to Lowell?" I doubt that I am in the mainstream here, but I favor keeping Lowell and trading Ortiz. There is little difference in their ages. Lowell is coming back from hip surgery and Ortiz had knee problems in '07 and wrist problems in '08, he may be on the brink of his downward slide. Although many Sox players engage in demanding conditioning programs in the offseason Ortiz appears reluctant to get in peak condition. With Lowell the Sox would have a three man rotation for DH, 1B, and 3B while Francona seems, ahh, cautious about playing Ortiz in the field. I believe Ortiz would bring more in a trade and perhaps a portion of this could be flipped in a trade for a catcher. I would be interested in your response, and I hope you enjoy your laugh. What do you think the chances are that Willis or Robertson will be flipped in a trade -- if we get one of them?
Rob R. Ashland, Ore.
A: You know, you're not alone in this belief. There are certainly questions about David Ortiz's drop-off this season, though his injury played into that. I think it's a valid opinion, but I don't think it's going to happen. Anything is possible -- Theo Epstein did trade Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, after all -- but I think it's unlikely that Ortiz will be traded this offseason, even if the Sox are successful in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira. As for Willis and/or Robertson, that trade doesn't seem to be likely. It's never really been a priority for the Sox, more something that was discussed and mostly dropped. No one really seemed all that excited about it.
It's always the knee-jerk reaction after a trade to think we didn't get enough, but could the Red Sox have fetched more for Crisp than an injury-prone middle reliever? He seems like a cross between Brandon Lyon and Manny Delcarmen. Was the reason for acting quickly in order to put Masterson on a starter's regimen? Although now I hear they're in the hunt for Burnett -- where would that leave Justin? And because this is my first time writing in -- any chance Chris Carter will be the lefty bat off the bench? Mark Wagner really struggled in Portland this year-- growing pains or did he have injury issues?
Mike S., Dover, N.H.
A: The market for Coco Crisp didn't exactly open up as the Sox would have wanted. It really came down to two teams, the Royals and the Reds. We'll see if Ramon Ramirez builds on his last season, in which he pitched very well for Kansas City, or ends up being not worth the price of Crisp. It's always difficult to judge bullpen arms year-to-year. Sometimes they can replicate their seasons; sometimes -- as we've seen in the past few years -- it just doesn't work out. It's an extremely tough position to judge. As for Justin Masterson, the Sox have options there. And, in fact, they don't really need to decide what to do with him until spring training. The plan is to stretch him out in the spring so that he can go either way. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say the Sox would like to sign another starter and keep Masterson in the bullpen. But, whether that doesn't work out because of the free agent market or because of injuries, Masterson provides them options. Plus, if Clay Buchholz and/or Michael Bowden present themselves as possible starters out of spring training, that could also push Masterson into relief. As for Chris Carter, I'd say no. I haven't heard anything about Mark Wagner and injuries, so it seems that he just struggled. He played well in the Arizona Fall League offensively, with a .288 average, four home runs, and a .916 OPS in 18 games.
Any chance that Ramon Ramirez gets No. 24 in spring training? I'm sure Twins [souvenir store] would appreciate putting those old Manny jerseys to some use. Pull them back off that clearance rack!
Geoff C., Kingston, On., Canada
A: [Insert laughter here.] I love it. But I don't think we'll see No. 24 being given out anytime soon. Between Dwight Evans and Manny Ramirez, that number is going to stay out of circulation for a while.![]()




