Debunking the mystery of one-run losses
Boston Globe baseball scribe Gordon Edes weighs in on the Olde Towne Team in this edition of the Ask Edes mailbag.
My question revolves around the sox abysmal record in one-run games this year. For a team that has among the best ERA in the league, and among the most runs scored,
this team seems miserable in close games. Can you put some stats out there
for us -- what is their record in one-run games, where does their winning
(losing!) percentage rank them, and how does that percentage in one-run games
compare with some of the games top managers this year, regardless of the
teams overall standing (yes I presume Torre and La Russa look great with the
Yanks and Cards -- although their team's offense and pitching can't be that
much better ... How about Lou Piniella in Tampa, Baker in
Chicago, Alou in San Fran? It seems to me that a manager's ability may be
judged by how he does in close games -- using the pen correctly, hit and run
or (god forbid) sacrifice in the right late game situation, etc. Obviously,
I am not impressed with Francona's decision making. What do you think?
Mike McLaughlin;
Ridgewood, NJ
A: Mike, beginning play Monday, the Red Sox had the worst record in one-run games (8-17) than any team in baseball except for the woeful Arizona Diamondbacks, who are 6-23. Every other playoff contender in the AL has a winning record in one-run games; the Indians despite a bullpen that had more blown saves than saves, had 22 one-run wins, as many as the White Sox and three more than the Yankees. Does this mean Terry Francona is being outmanaged by, among others, Joe Torre, Eric Wedge and Ozzie Guillen, not to mention Grady Little, who last season guided the Sox to a 26-16 record in one-run games? That might be your first conclusion.
But the numbers crunchers, including Bill James, will tell you that luck and randomness are significant factors in one-run outcomes, and it's not hard to find some support for that conclusion. For example, last season, the Toronto Blue Jays were 10 games over .500, but were just 14-23 in one-run games. This season, they're 14-15 in one-run games, but began play Monday 20 games under .500. Felipe Alou is widely regarded as one of the game's best managers, and last season his Giants were 28-12 in one-run games. This season, they're 15-19; did Alou suddenly become a worse manager? How 'bout the Cubs? Under Dusty Baker, they were 27-17 in one-run games last season; this season it's 15-19. This might be the best example of all. Last season, the Braves were just 17-25 in one-run games, and yet won 101 games overall. How does the Braves' record in one-run games reflect on Bobby Cox's managerial abilities? My answer: Not at all. And the same may be true for Terry Francona, too.
Do you think trading Nomar was also meant to send a signal to Pedro
and other players who can become free agents at the end of the season?
Tom Johnson;
Warwick, RI
A: No, Tom, I don't. I think the Sox have been consistent in their posture toward their free agents. I do, however, see some reason to believe the Sox will keep Pedro. Just reading the tea leaves, but Pedro has been very happy in recent weeks, while speaking very positively about remaining in Boston.
Hey Gordon, I'm sure you noticed that the Red Sox seemingly lead
the league in GWBM (Guys With Big Mouths). In watching the pre-game show
now Millar is bellyaching about his playing time. Have you noticed that
very few discouraging words are seemingly muttered about Joe Torre or Tony
La Russa. How come our "guys" feel it necessary to air it out in public?
Don't you think this unedrcuts an already weak manager?
Mark Levine;
Miramar, Fla.
A: Mark, Millar acknowledged that he was mistaken in complaining about his PT publicly, but grumbling about playing time is hardly a new phenomenon, and hardly limited to the Red Sox. And to be honest with you, I think Terry Francona turned the situation to his advantage, by spanking Millar while getting a chance to make his case more forcefully about how guys are going to have to buy into what the Sox are attempting to accomplish. Millar has been playing with a chip on his shoulder for over a month now, after getting fed up with all the criticism he was hearing. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. And while I can't cite chapter and verse, I suspect even Mr. Torre has fielded the occasional complaint -- how about having to put up with David Wells flapping his gums?
I have 2 quick questions for you:
1) Prior to the Nomar trade, I had read in some chat transcripts on Boston.com that Sox management told Nomar he was not going to be traded during this season. In the wake of the trade, there has been no mention of this -- was it just a rumor?
2) Secondly, in light of Boston.com's relationship with NESN, NYT's partial ownership of the Red Sox, and what I would call Boston.com's "unbalanced" coverage of the Nomar trade, what assurances do readers of Boston.com and the Boston Globe have of these publications' objectivity?
Mind you, its not my intention to accuse the Globe or Boston.com of
anything, it just strikes me as a situation that is ripe for abuse.
Jason McGovern;
Natick
A: Jason, I believe the Sox went out of their way, both publicly and privately, never to rule out the possibility that Nomar could be traded. It is absolutely true that in the days, even in the final hours, leading up to the trade, the Sox were telling Nomar's agent, Arn Tellem, that a deal was very unlikely.
I wish you had given me some insight into what you considered the unbalanced coverage of the Nomar trade; my guess is that you thought it was too tilted toward management. I think in the judgment of those writing opinion about the trade, they concluded that Nomar was indeed very unhappy here, had indeed indicated to Sox management that he would have to sit for big chunks of time down the stretch, and that the club was not in a position to take the risk of not having an everyday shortstop in the last eight weeks of the season. I hope that, in my efforts to seek out Nomar in Chicago and afterward by phone, that I fully presented his side. And I agree that the Globe, through the New York Times Company, has left itself open to the perception of conflict of interest by its partial ownership of the team. It is the same situation faced by the Chicago Tribune, whose parent, Tribune Company, owns the Cubs. I can tell you until I'm blue in the face that the business side of the New York Times Company has no impact, no input, nothing whatsoever on the content of our coverage, but that doesn't mean the seed of doubt won't be there in the minds of our readers.
Number 5 in our batting order is my question. Seriously.
Jason Varitek is just too streaky. When is Ellis Burks coming back? He'd be
stable behind Manny.
David;
Tewksbury
A: Dave, I wouldn't be counting on Ellis Burks anytime soon. He's hoping to be ready for a September callup, but that's all that is, a hope. I think Francona will have little choice but to go with either Varitek or Millar, both of whom are hot right now.
I have a question about Pedro. In last Sunday's article by Nick Cafardo
(Letting go would be hard to grasp), Pedro was quoted as saying: "Dr. [Lewis] Yocum told me that in the third year after the surgery the
shoulder would be completely back to normal, as strong as it was before,
and I think what's going on right now is exactly the way he laid it out for
me," Martinez said. Did I miss something here, or did Petey have some kind of surgical
procedure in 2001 that was kept a secret? I thought all he did was
strengthen the shoulder during that offseason, when he came back for 2002
in "Wonderland". Either way, can you please provide some clarification on
that statement?
Rich;
Hillsborough, NJ
A: Rich, I haven't asked Nick about it and wasn't privy to the conversation, but Pedro did not undergo surgery in 2001. He did consult with Dr. Yocum, who told him of the tear in his labrum, but it is my understanding that Yocum was in agreement with Sox doctors that rest was an acceptable course to follow, and I suspect that he may have told Pedro whether surgery or rest, it would be three years before the shoulder was completely back to normal.
Why is everyone being so hard on Kevin Millar? He's 100 percent correct with his
opinion that Francona should be using a consistent lineup. The problem for
him is that his name should not be a part of it. He's a utility player at
best and I have been saying it for two years. Be careful what you wish for
Millar!
Derek Linton;
Nashua, NH
A: It's all about timing, Derek, and your shots at Millar, which would have been on target a month ago, have lost their juice in light of the fact that Millar leads the Sox in hitting since the All-Star break with a .383 average, has the most home runs (8) and has driven in more runs (24) than anyone except David Ortiz.
Do you think that Theo hired Francona as a temporary manager? First
to aid in luring Schilling to Boston. Second, Torre had one year left on
his contract, he was not happy with Steinbrenner. Theo, on the back burner,
may have had it in his mind to hire Torre after this season. Unfortunately,
Steinbrenner comes to his senses and signs Torre. Was it to manage the
Yankees or keep him away from Boston?
James Morris;
Clinton
A: James, Steinbrenner would never allow Torre to go to Boston. No, I think Theo hired Francona because he thought he was the guy to manage this team for the next three seasons.
I'm tired of all the Nomah controversy with his leaving for Chicago. I think both he and the front office could have handled the trade with a lot more class than each exhibited. If I had to choose sides, however, I would lean towards the front office. Why? I watched a Cubs game this past week when Nomar reached first early in the game. He
promptly stole second, and then, on a shallow fly to right for an out, he
tagged up and made it to third way ahead of the throw. I don't recall him
doing that on his best days with the Sox. Has the front office and Red Sox
Nation been had on this sham of an injury?
Ted Swift;
Rio Verde, Ariz.
A: Ted, that's a question we may be debating long into the winter if Nomar and the Cubs advance to the World Series, and the Sox don't. So far, Nomar has missed one game with the Cubs.
I'm a transplanted Southie Guy and keep in touch with my favorite
teams by having the Globe sports page as my home page. As a
long-suffering, die-hard Sox fan, I've been frustrated with their win one -
lose one ways since about April. Is it my imagination or have they not
swept a series in a long time?
Kenny;
San Diego
A: Kenny, will you settle for 3 out of 4, which is what they did to Tampa Bay last week? The Sox have swept four teams this season -- the Yankees and D-Rays in back to back series in April, the Blue Jays in May, and the A's in Boston in July, just before the break.
With Cards SS Edgar Renteria being a free agent at the end of
the year -- do you think there is any chance he could land in Boston? Are
the Sox interested? Do you think he's interested in coming here? Thanks!
Sean;
Buffalo, NY
A: Sean, Edgar is a great name and yes, I believe the Sox would have interest, but I've got to think that Renteria will opt to stay with the Cardinals. 