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October road

Email|Link|Comments (10) Posted by Chad Finn, Globe Staff September 24, 2008 02:41 PM

All the Red Sox know for sure about the postseason to come is that they will be one of the fortunate eight participants.

Beyond that, pretty much everything else remains unsettled with five games remaining in the regular season. Here are few details and possibilities to consider:

The Red Sox are unlikely to catch the Rays in the AL East. Tampa Bay holds a three-game lead with five to play, and they also hold the tiebreaker (in head to head play, Tampa beat the Sox in 10 of 18 meetings). Coolstandings.com gives the Rays a 98.3 percent chance of winning the division, which is as close to a lock as you can get. While Sox manager Terry Francona says he's not abandoning their chances of winning a second straight division crown, he also has a history of focusing on the big picture and has indicated that the greater priority right now is getting his team rested and healthy and his starting pitching in order.

The Sox are almost certain to play the Angels in the first round. Their only chance of avoiding the Rally Monkey in the ALDS is to overtake Tampa Bay in the AL East, setting up a first-round series with the AL Central champion, either Chicago or Minnesota. (The Sox and Rays can't play in the ALDS because they are division rivals.)

The schedule is in the Angels' hands. Los Angeles, at 97-60, owns a two-game advantage over the Rays (95-62) for the best record in the AL with five games to play. If the Angels maintain the league's top mark, they will earn home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs while also having the option of choosing which of the two ALDS schedules they would prefer to play. (Just as the Rays would have the choice should they overtake the Angels.) Assuming the Angels are matched up with the Red Sox, the "A" schedule would look like this should they choose that option:

Game 1: Boston at LA, Thurs., Oct. 2

Game 2: Boston at LA, Fri., Oct. 3

Game 3: LA at Boston, Sun., Oct. 5

Game 4 LA at Boston, Mon. Oct. 6 (if necessary)

Game 5 Boston at LA, Weds. Oct. 8 (if necessary)

While if they choose the "B" schedule, it would be set up this way:

Game 1: Boston at LA, Weds., Oct. 1

Game 2: Boston at LA: Fri., Oct. 3

Game 3: LA at Boston: Sun., Oct. 5

Game 4 LA at Boston, Mon. Oct. 6 (if necessary)

Game 5 Boston at LA, Weds. Oct. 8 (if necessary)

It won't be a simple decision for Mike Scioscia and the Angels' braintrust. Should they choose the "A" schedule, the four-games-in-five-days setup means both teams would need a fourth starter, and there has been speculation that the Angels prefer this option because they believe their rotation has greater depth than Boston's. Penciling in John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders as LA's top three starters, a Game 4 matchup would probably pit either Jon Garland or Jered Weaver against Boston's Tim Wakefield or Paul Byrd.

The "B" schedule offers different benefits. With a day off between both Games 1 and 2 and Games 2 and 3, the teams would need just three starters, and it's more likely that they'd be able to use their top relief pitchers in all three games if necessary. This setup might work better for the Red Sox, since they lack the overall bullpen depth of the Angels, but LA might also find it appealing since it would allow for extra rest for record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez.

Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka? Not so fast. Though Jon Lester has had a steadier regular season than Josh Beckett, the conventional wisdom is that Beckett will be the Sox' Game 1 starter, based on his outstanding track record in October. (Beckett is scheduled for his final start of the regular season Saturday. If the Angels choose the "A" schedule, Beckett would be on his normal rest for the Thursday opener.) He would then presumably be followed by Lester in Game 2 in LA and 18-game-winner Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 3 at Fenway. But again, the choice isn't that easy: While Lester has been lights-out at Fenway this season (10-1 with a 2.54 ERA), he's just 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. Matsuzaka has been quite good at Fenway (9-2, 3.18) and otherworldly on the road (9-0, 2.37), so perhaps he will get the Game 2 nod, with Lester pitching the first game at Fenway.

We'll find out soon enough, but this much we do know: Terry Francona has some fascinating and crucial decisions to consider in the coming days. And the Angels will probably make a few of them for him.

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10 comments so far...

The stats suggest Dice K in game 2, and its hard to argue with 18-2. But this only makes sense if Schedule A is used setting up a three-man rotation.

Do you want two Dice K starts in a five-game series with a potentially tapped bullpen from very close low-scoring and possibly late-inning games? Also, if it goes five and you win, Lester as the game 3 starter would likely open the series on the road anyway in the ALCS. i think you go with the predictable Beckett, Lester, Dice K rotation.

But if a four-man rotation is needed, then I think you go with Dice K in game 2 on the road. Beckett then is the possible game 5 starter and either Dice K or Lester can come back in game 1 of the ALCS if they get there.

Wake still gets the nod for me in game 4, if the A schedule is used. He is the most likely to pitch a shut out (or get bombed, very true) and he will screw up the hitters timing should they have to go back to Beckett in game 5.

interesting stuff... a lot depends on the schedule.

Posted by Scott from San Fran September 24, 08 04:14 PM

I would want either Beckett or Lester going in games 1 & 5. Since Lester pitches well at home and Dice K better on the road, it seems to make sense to go with Dice K in game two and Lester in game 3 at Fenway. But if Beckett does not feel like himself, it would be best to go Lester-Dice K-Beckett with Lester in game 5. Byrd should definately be on playoff roster for long relief and in case of injury to a starter. Also, whoever pitches game 2 should be available for work in game 5 as well, no matter the A-B schedule.

Posted by Mark from Ashburn, VA September 24, 08 05:27 PM

Actually, Scott, Matsuzaka is perfectly matched for the Angels for one big reason: they are an aggressive team. His best starts this season have been against teams like Seattle, Toronto and Chicago, all in the bottom ten in walks.

The Angels are twenty-fifth in all of the MLB in walks and the Royals and Mariners are the only two AL teams below them. This bodes well for a pitcher like Matsuzaka, whose primary problem is walks. They're free swingers and those are the kind of batters that he's excelled against this season.

The one caveat is that the Angels are one of only two teams to get a win off of him this season (The Cardinals being the other) as they were the only two teams to really tee off on him in the regular season (Ironically, the Cards and Angels are two teams who he didn't issue many walks to).

Also of note, as mentioned in the article, his splits are much better away from Fenway, which is where he faced the Angels. Three of the six runs he allowed were on a homer over the monster that probably would've been an out in most other parks.

I would totally give Matsuzaka the ball in game two over Lester with their splits.

Also, an addition for everyone fearing the Angels: They haven't faced Lester once this season and, while they've had our number most of the season, they've also seen Buccholz twice and starts from Pauley and Wakefield. With a postseason pumped Beckett on the mound, the potential of Matsuzaka in a slightly more roomy ballpark and the beast that is 2008 Jon Lester, we've got as good a chance as anyone of toppling the 2008 Angels.

Posted by Jonathan September 24, 08 05:58 PM

Wherefore art thou Bartolo Colon?

Posted by al jayson September 24, 08 06:45 PM

Yeah, does anyone know exactly what happened to Colon (besides dropping off the face of the earth and being kicked off the team)?

Posted by Jay September 24, 08 07:37 PM

Jonathan. I can't argue your points. Well noted. I had also forgotten who the Angels had faced. That is encouraging.

Bart is still down in the Dominican pouting because the Sox told him he wasn't in their plans for the rotation. He is done as a Red Sox (and really, if you watch him pitch, he's done anyway. He has only one pitch and it tops out at 92).

Posted by Scott from San Fran September 24, 08 08:34 PM

Either option is good, but the question remains, can they score enough runs? It won't matter who is pitching. If they can get 4-5 runs per game, I think we can take the series in 5, if not - it could be over in 3!! Opinion: Wake over Byrd

Posted by owenfromburbankbywayofthecape September 25, 08 12:49 PM

Red Sox can't win this one either way. They are going to lose, so no use wasting time pondering who is going to pitch.

Posted by disuki September 25, 08 01:41 PM

Beckett is scheduled to have his last start on Sat. what if LA picks schedule B, with game one on Wed... will Beckett come back on just 3 days rest for a playoff start. I would imagine he will only pitch 3-4 innings on saturday because of this.

For the Game 2 question: I think you have to go with Lester, despite the splits that suggest otherwise. Lester has been the money pitcher on this staff all year long. And he's done it on the road too... remember that crucial start in Yankee Stadium on July 4th weekend, when the Sox had just been swept by the Rays and the Yankees were gaining fast. That win was one of the most important all year. And Lester pitched a complete-game shutout. Also, whoever pitches Game 2 will be available for relief in Game 5... I'd rather have Lester coming out of the pen than Dice-K.

Finally, for a potential Game 4 in Schedule A scenario, you gotta go with Wakefield. Byrd gives us some versatility in the pen, especially in an extra-inning scenario. Wakefield is not has valuable in the bullpen, one because Tek cannot catch him, and two because his control can be spotty.

Posted by Aaron September 25, 08 03:53 PM