We may or may not receive the rotation from Red Sox manager Terry Francona later this morning. Given Francona's typical postseason procedure, he may decide waiting until the Sox arrive in Tampa is most advantageous. Amalie Benjamin looked at the Red Sox possibilities this morning and arrived at one conclusion: The Sox need to decide between Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett for Game 1 of the ALCS.
Arguments can be made for both. Let’s do that now.
The argument for Matsuzaka
Beckett did not look himself Sunday night in his ALDS Game 3 start after returning from a 13-day layoff caused by his strained right oblique. So it would be prudent to give him a fifth day of rest and try to return him to his typically dominant playoff form. You would also give Lester an extra two days off by saving him for Game 3, and imagine what he could do on six days' rest.
Matsuzaka may be maddening at times, but the results carry more weight: He went 18-3 this season with a 2.90 ERA. While he may have lasted just five innings in Game 2 of the ALDS and allowed eight hits, he gave up just three runs and left with a two-run lead in a game the Red Sox eventually won.
OK, OK, Matsuzaka isn’t exactly the most consistent and reliable starter. So why would you want him pitching Game 7? Might as well pitch Matsuzaka first and fifth and set up Beckett and Lester for Game 6 and Game 7.
The argument for Beckett
Injury or no injury, he is still Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time. If the Red Sox think he is healthy enough to pitch, then he is healthy enough to pitch on normal rest. With a start under his belt, he should be more effective and set a dominating tone for the series.
Putting Matsuzaka on the mound is like shooting an arrow into the air. Forget Game 3 – Beckett and Lester are the two most consistent options. By throwing Beckett first, you can pitch Lester on normal rest for Game 2 and ensure he’ll pitch two of the first six games.
In a seven-game series, Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Lester will each pitch twice. But if the series goes six games, you don’t want to have had Lester or Beckett pitch only once.
Now we ask: Who would you start?
Game 1: Dice-K. great road record.
Game 2: Beckett. who better for a stopper if the sox lose game 1?
Game 3: Lester. great home record (main reason not to start game 2)
Game 4: Wake
Game 5: Dice-K
Game 6: Beckett
Game 7: Lester
Personally, I would go with Matsuzaka, Lester second, Beckett third, Wakefield, Matsuzaka in Game 5, Lester in game 6, and Beckett in game 7.
Giving Beckett the extra time to refine his pitches after not pitching for awhile would be a good thing. GO SOX
I was discussing this last night with my uncle who is set on Beckett/Lester/Dice-K and hears the argument about Wakefield/Cash but trusts Byrd more as you know what you will get and he will keep you in the game whereas Wakefield might shut them out for eight innings or he might allow six runs in the first inning and we couldn't win. His thinking is around Lester, why mess with his routine of four days of rest. I am at a lost myself. This series will not be a sweep by either team, I am sure, so I want Beckett and Lester in game five and six. As to starting Friday. I don't know.
Why is Wakefield not under consideration to start? He had a rough outing last time, but he's been lights-out at the Trop. I mean, if we're going to turn Game 1 into a nail-biter on the mound w/Daisuke, why not?
It should be Beckett game 1 and Lester game 2. In a seven game series you want these guys going 1 and 2 so that they can pitch again in games 5 and 6. If Lester doesn't go until game 3, then he doesn't get another chance until game 7 and it may be too late by then. If I were setting the ALCS rotation, it would be Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield.
Don't "save" Lester or Beckett for game 7 ... there might not BE a game 7. They are the two best pitchers ... gotta pitch them earlier in the series.
How about this pitching rotation which takes advantage of the additional day off between games 4 and 5, thereby allowing Matsuzaka to pitch game 1 but still allowing Beckett and Lester to pitch 4 of the first 6 games?
Game 1: Matsuzaka
Game 2: Beckett (extra day’s rest)
Game 3: Lester (2 extra day’s rest)
Game 4: Wakefield (or Byrd)
Game 5: Beckett (regular rest)
Game 6: Lester (regular rest)
Game 7: Matsuzaka/Wakefield/Byrd
You have to start Beckett Game one.
We know Dice-K will go 5 or 6 and give up 2 or 3 runs.
You have to think Beckett will be better than last time, and last time he was just a little worse than Dice-K. With Beckett, the floor is about the same as Dice-K, but there is a chance he will go 8 shutout innings, win us Game one, and put us in control of the series very quickly. His possible injury is not somethig that will be affected by one more day's rest, and his track record cannot be ignored. I don't think this is a real choice.
Beckett. I do not want the Sox to tax the bullpen right off the bat in game 1, and they would if Dice pitches
I want Dice-K game one, even though I think it's a pretty even debate. The tipping point for me would be the bullpen. Beckett had an awful outing in game 3, yet he went 5 innings. If he pitches an average night he should go 6. Dice-K goes five innings on an average night. If the bullpen is more likely to be used more on a Dice-K start (which I contend it is), I'd rather put him in front of Lester, who we can largely count on going 7 and saving the bullpen a bit. Pitching Dice-K and Byrd/Wakefield back-to-back could make for two longer-than-wanted evenings for the 'pen.
Look at the Angels' series closely, and you realize what won it was the pressure on the Angels, created by the Sox winning the first two games. This resulted in, among other things, the ill-fated suicide squeeze.
Therefore you want the pitcher who gives you the best chance to win, right now. Who is that? Emotions and hype aside, it's clearly Dice-K, based on stats from the past month. Any further back, the stats mean nothing, this is about who's winning right now. 'Big-game' rep aside, that's not Beckett.
Dice-K. Without question. Even if he falters in game 1, with Beckett on extended rest you have a real great chance of coming out of Tampa with no worse than a split. Then you have Lester for Game 3 and (if necessary 7).
Done the other way -- if you start Beckett and he has not have enough rest to recover his form -- then you've got a scarey Dick-K for game two.
Game 1: Josh Beckett on normal rest. He could come back on three days rest for Game 4 if needed.
Game 2: Dice K. With the off day after the game we can use the whole bullpen to support Dice.K
Game 3. Jon Lester
Game 4. Tim Wakefield
Game 5. Josh Beckett on five days rest.
Game 6. Dice K. You want to start Dice K on the road since he is very good on the road. We could start Jon Lester on normal rest if needed.
Game 7. Jon Lester
This rotation really makes Game 1 CRITICAL.
If the Sox win we're sitting pretty but if they lose we'd most likely need 7 to win. Having said that if we need 7 we got our best for last yet if we win we'd have a legitimate chance to only have to make the trip to TB once. Looking at this way it is good; plus it gives everyone the necessary rest.
I think this series will be different from the Halos. The DLS was about starting pitching; I think the ALCS will be more about offense and relief pitching.
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