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History lesson

Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff October 14, 2008 10:51 AM

The narrative of a playoff baseball series is severe, see-sawing tensions like a serial novel. The Red Sox won Game 1 of the American League Championship Series – the Rays were too young and too scared; Josh Beckett and Jon Lester loomed; the series was over. The Rays now hold the same one-game advantage – the Red Sox are too old and too injured; Beckett is finished and Lester mortal; the series is over.

There is a kernel of truth in those extremes, but the Red Sox – down 2-1 heading into tonight’s Game 4 – understand acutely that a seven-game series is not lost in the first three games. One of them understands acutely that a seven-game series is not won in the first three games, either.

“We were in way better shape,” said Paul Byrd, the Boston pitcher who, last season, played on a Cleveland Indians team that had the Red Sox backed into a darker corner than the Rays currently do. The Indians led the ALCS, 3-1, with a game remaining to be played in Cleveland. They had pitching horses Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia in the chamber.

Sabathia imploded. J.D. Drew hit a pivotal grand slam. Daisuke Matsuzaka did just enough to win. Series over, Sox win. The doom predicted when the Sox went down 3-1 proved unfounded.

“They just got hot at the right time,” Byrd said. “They just made things work. Just got hot. Pitching really came through at the end. That’s where we’re at right now. We need really good pitching performances, and you can get hot. Seven games isn’t that long. We’ve got to turn it around.

“When I was with Cleveland, Game 4, we won, and we had a lot of momentum going. We couldn’t have had any more momentum going. All of a sudden, bam. We can’t score the last three games, and they poured it on.”

A potential Red Sox comeback this season, then, would start tonight with Tim Wakefield. It’s hard to find any indicator how a knuckleballer will pitch, but Wakefield was 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA at Fenway Park this season.

Tampa starter Andy Sonnanstine has been even better against the Red Sox. In two consecutive September starts, Sonnanstine did not allow the Red Sox a run while striking out 12 in a combined 13 innings. The first start, which lasted seven innings, came at Fenway. The second, which lasted six, came at Tropicana Field.

So the Red Sox have some work to avoid a 3-1 hole, which is grim and would produce even grimmer headlines. But the Red Sox realize from experience that sometimes it takes seven games to win a seven-game series.

“Being down 2-1, you don’t want to be there,” Byrd said. “And just because we came back last year doesn’t mean we can do it again this year. But what I do like is that this team has done it before. You can’t assume anything. But this team has done it before. We’ve got a bunch of fighters over here. We’ve got a bunch of clutch players. I still like our chances. We’re only down 2-1. Somebody had to be down 2-1.”

52 comments so far...
  1. Please!!! Please!!! Bring back last year Graphic that shows the panic LEVEL

    CRAWL ON THE LEDGE was the maximum level.
    That bring us a lot of luck last year!!!!

    Posted by Telfe October 14, 08 11:04 AM
  1. Don't worry, we'll have that graphic up after Thursday's Dice-K loss (j/k, I have no idea). But anyway, the lineup needs some shuffling. Here is what I suggest:

    1. Crisp (CF)
    2. Pedroia (2B)
    3. Ortiz (DH)
    4. Youkilis (3B)
    5. Bay (LF)
    6. Drew (RF)
    7. Lowrie (SS)
    8. Casey (1B)
    9. Cash (C)

    We can't afford to have Ellsbury in there anymore, he hasn't set the table for a LONG time. He's also very valuable as a pinch runner. Youk has to play 3rd and Kotsay hasn't been hitting lately so why have Casey on the roster if you aren't going to give him a shot to play first. He batted well over 300 this season in limited time so lets see what he can do.

    Posted by King B October 14, 08 12:03 PM
  1. Didn't Kotsay get 2 hits last night? Plus he's better defensively. Otherwise I think that's the lineup. We need tablesetters on for 3-4-5 and we need Ortiz to start hitting.

    Posted by Dom October 14, 08 12:32 PM
  1. Ortiz needs to be shuffled down in the order, for his sake (and ultimately ours). I like:
    1. Crisp (cf)
    2. Pedroia (2nd)
    3. Drew (rf)
    4. Youkilis (3rd)
    5. Bay (lf)
    6. Ortiz (DH)
    7. Casey/Kotsay (1st)
    8. Lowrie (ss)
    9. Cash (c)

    Any other game, swap out with:
    8. Varitek (c)
    9. Lowrie (ss)

    Posted by Justin October 14, 08 12:34 PM
  1. What a pathetic showing by the so called Fenway Faithful last night. You have a young easily distracted pitcher on the mound and no GAR - ZA no nothing. Pathetic. Maybe if they play that awful song "Sweet Caroline" more, pink hat nation will make more noise. Did I mention yesterday was pathetic?!?

    Posted by Nick October 14, 08 12:36 PM
  1. It's hard to win getting zero production for the leadoff spot, the #3 hitter in Ortiz, and Varitek. Add to that the fact that the aces can't get anybody out and it's even harder. It would really suck for the Sox to lose to a team that can't even sellout the good seats in a playoff game. Rays fans don't even care about the Rays.

    Posted by Mike October 14, 08 12:40 PM
  1. Defense still wins championships and Casey has no glove. I agree with Crisp but maybe it's time to drop Ortiz to 5th or sixth in the order!

    Posted by Tom October 14, 08 12:47 PM
  1. Kotsay looks locked in after last night. I'd like to keep him at first. Ellsbury needs to choke up on the bat like he did last year and spray hits.

    Posted by Jwinters October 14, 08 12:48 PM
  1. A big part of me still has trust in Francoma...he sticks with his guys thick and EXTREME thin (remember Johnny Devil Damon's struggles and Mark K-Horn/Bellhorn's ineptitude...) and the guys seem to pull through in the end...

    I'm cautiously optimistic!

    Posted by Jake October 14, 08 12:49 PM
  1. Casey CANNOT play defense...Tampa will take full advantage of that situation all game long. Not a good move. Otherwise I agree but move Papi to 5 or 6 and move youk and Bay up...

    Posted by outfield October 14, 08 12:53 PM
  1. Here we are in game 3; down 2-1. Wakefield starting, and we all have our eyes
    covered in our hands. On the line-up side, yes, Crisp should be back in the lineup,
    he has moved up his game a notch and Ellsbury has flattened in a free fall; the white elephant in the lineup is Ortiz and the question of how to address his total lack of production; he is currently in a Mendoza zone yet batting in the 3 spot ; with a mystique that defies removing him from the lineup. Casey not used at all; and Byrd as a mop up pitcher are two more puzzles. We surrendered game 2 when we brought in Timlin who truly is a middle reliever mop up role player. What next ....

    to rethink

    Posted by Richard Lovett October 14, 08 12:57 PM
  1. "Ortiz has not been the same over the last 2 years." Says Mass. I agree. but why do we think this is? It has nothing to do with Manny being gone and everything to do with Ortiz not juicing anymore. I mean, c'mon, when this guy was in Minn. he was a bum. If he was on another team we would all admit this. The simple fact is . . . Ortiz is no longer a threat. The Sox need some serious offensive power next season.

    Posted by Bbbb October 14, 08 12:59 PM
  1. telfe I agree... bring back Coco. We need a lead-off guy that can get on base!

    Posted by rockindave October 14, 08 01:04 PM
  1. All you bandwagon fans should feel free to jump off now, for all the moaning you do. I can't afford to go to Fenway anymore so I didn't witness this live, but I swear I heard Tek get booed after an at-bat last night. Are you kidding me? The guy has given everything he has to this team for years, including bringing two WS titles, and he gets booed? What a joke. The Sox have a bad loss in Tampa and then Lester gets beat in Fenway and suddenly the whole team stinks? They're down 2-1 in a best-of-seven series and it's doomsday? It wasn't long ago a friend of mine told her husband - a Yankees fan - I was a Sox fan, and his response was "Why would anyone want to do that to themselves?" I'll never forget the days when that was a legitimate question - they put a 2-1 ALCS deficit in perspective. Some of you "fans" need to get some perspective. Cheer for your team whether they're slumping or not, winning or not. "Red Sox Nation" is nothing but a bunch of entitled wusses.
    Tek getting booed ... what a joke.

    Posted by Mike Stanley October 14, 08 01:06 PM
  1. To me the winner of game 4 will win the series. Of course the HUGE wildcard is the knuckleballer. We all know Wakefield can turn the Devils (I prefer to drop the Rays) heads dizzy and cruise through 7 or he can get roughed up and get the hook in the 5th, we've seen both.

    Posted by Joseph Scavone October 14, 08 01:13 PM
  1. I think the Baseball Necklaces have lost thier power and they need new ones.
    www.Baseball-Necklace.com

    Posted by Sports-Necklace October 14, 08 01:16 PM
  1. Kotsay got two hits last night........He needs to be in the lineup. Wake up dude!

    Posted by Davis G October 14, 08 01:20 PM
  1. And this deal with waiting for your comment to be "approved" is stupid. I don't have time to wait around waiting to see if my comment makes it through the sensors. By the time it is, everyone has moved on to another topic/post.

    Posted by Mike Stanley October 14, 08 01:32 PM
  1. My suggestion
    1. Youkilis (3B)
    2. Pedroia (2B)
    3. Drew (RF)
    4. Bay (LF)
    5. Ortiz (DH)
    6. Ellsbury (CF)
    7. Lowrie (SS)
    8. Casey (1B)
    9. Cash (C)
    Ortiz is a BIG BUST so far, he doesn't deserve to bat 3rd or 4th. Give Casey a chance.

    Posted by Red Sox Nation October 14, 08 01:33 PM
  1. Let me just say that I am more disappointed in the fans at the game last night than the play on the field. There was no intensity by that crowd from the get go. I have been a lots of other playoff games and by far, last night the nation fell flat - at some points it seemed like the nation did not care. We have two strikes on a Tampa hitter and a few fans stand and clap...if that was the Yankees would that be the case. No, every pitch means something here. This is still the ALCS people! Let's get into the game and support these guys. We need to make some noise and rattle the Tampa player - - remember they are new to October baseball.

    Also, Tito needs to protect Ortiz better. They are not pitching to him and would rather pitch to Yuk...why not, it has worked well so far. They should move Drew or Bay (if you still want the L-R match ups) to the four hole. Also, sit Jacoby and play Coco. It will work.....

    There is still life in the Sox, let's hope we hear some noise tonight at the ball park.

    Posted by scott October 14, 08 01:38 PM
  1. Kotsay hasn't been hitting lately??? have you been watching this series at all?? he had two hits last night and has been hitting the ball right on the screws since the playoffs started.

    Posted by Brendan October 14, 08 01:38 PM
  1. Chicks dig the Red Sox Hat

    Posted by Zach Snyder October 14, 08 01:48 PM
  1. I like the idea of changing the line up but Kotsay is hitting the ball hard. I think his bat will come alive. But rather than have Ortiz batting third I suggest moving Youkilis to third spot, Bay to 4th, Drew to 5th and Ortiz to 6th.

    Posted by Gary October 14, 08 01:59 PM
  1. Now I know the Tito is worthy of "Manager of the Year Awards" more than once but I still don't understand why he hasn't made a move like I have listed below. Hopefully he will do it next year.
    1. Ellsbury / Crisp
    2. Pedroia (2B)
    3. Bay (LF)
    4. Ortiz (DH)
    5. Youkilis (3B)
    6.Drew (RF)
    7. Lowrie (SS)
    8. Kotsay / Casey (1B)
    9. Vtek / Cash (c)

    By moving Bay to the 3 hole you protect him form his many strikeouts. No one will walk him to get to Big Papi. Youk prefers to hit out of the 5 hole. In turn no onw will walk Papi to get to Youk. I think this move betters our middle lineup!!

    Posted by Sean B. October 14, 08 02:03 PM
  1. It is also time to put PAPI out to pasture. He and Elsbury have been horrible at the plate, don't look comfortable and we can no longer "bet on the come". It is almost like Papi isn't seeing the ball well, need to have everything checked. Elsbury looks afraid up at the bat. Give him time defensively and pinch running but limit his at-bats. Also need to move JD to the no. 3 spot where he tore it up in July, even without what's his name in the 4 spot, his replacement Jason Bay will make those pitchers have to throw to JD and that is when he is most dangerous.

    Wake is a money pitcher, he will be excellent tonight and the Sox will advance to the WS in 7 games.

    Posted by Mac from Montana October 14, 08 02:14 PM
  1. Time for the offense to "Wake-Up" tonight. Big Pop-up needs to bunt or spray one of those outside pitches to left for a single. Ellsbury looking like dear in headlights at the plate all of a sudden. Pedroia and Youk can't carry us every night. To think that we are even in it with no Manny, no Lowell, Papi with a bad wrist, Beckett off his game, not to mention no Schilling...it is amazing that we are one of four teams left standing. Still happy to be in it...how would you like to be a Yankee fan right now....or Detroit for that matter....or shall I say a Cubs fan???? So, I'm ready to put my faith in Wake. We can beat these guys.

    Posted by Steve 0407 October 14, 08 02:18 PM
  1. Wakefield or Timlin?
    I think Redsox has already lost the Series when Francona used Timlin.
    Tampa will win in six games, only Matsuzaka gets wins in this Series

    Posted by Syd Muto October 14, 08 02:29 PM
  1. Come on guys, this series is NOT over. Tonight the Rays have Sonnestine. He pitched well, OK, but can we actually say that their pitcher is better than Wake? Wake has been around for a LONG time and we have to be faithful enough to give this team our trust. It is a very special and succesfull group of players. Last year, the Indians were better, right? Well, were exactly are the Indians by now? I trust the Sox, and Fenway has to show them the crowd is on their side. Come on Fenway! Make some noise! This team does not give up! The crowd cant give up after game 3!! it´s 2x1....for crying out loud!

    Posted by JP October 14, 08 02:30 PM
  1. King B...Kotsay hasn't hit lately??!! Hit had 2 of the 7 BoSox hits last night, and 2 key hits in the game 1 win? I do though agree with you on moving Coco to the front spot. He is 4 for 7 in this LCS, and capable of changing the game like Ellsbury with his speed, not to mention his exceptional range in CF.

    This is where not having Lowell kilss us. If so, we could move petey to 1 and youk to 2, drop Ells or Coco to the 9 spot.

    Posted by Kmac October 14, 08 02:34 PM
  1. nice call King B, now let's play ball.

    Posted by reed October 14, 08 02:44 PM
  1. @ King B ... Since you've made some hard calls in your lineup, make another one: why do you still have Ortiz in the DH slot? You still living on the memory of earlier years? I'd say sit Ortiz, and move everyone else up one place, then plug Ellsbury back in at #9; let Drew or Bay be the DH.

    Posted by Mr. Heresy October 14, 08 02:44 PM
  1. I agree with King, but I would take out Ortiz and put Casey at DH & keep Kotsay at first. I think all these players are great but there not performing offense. We need to try something and quick. Good Luck Wakefield GO SOX

    Posted by NESPORTZDAWG October 14, 08 02:45 PM
  1. There is a rumor around the Bosto Globe that's about to make headlines. James Shields has Guaranteed a victory tonight saying Wakefield is "washed up". Expect to hear more very soon

    Posted by hoge670 October 14, 08 02:46 PM
  1. Wakefield or Timlin?
    I think Redsox has already lost the Series when Francona used Timlin.
    Tampa will win in six games, only Matsuzaka gets wins in this Series

    Posted by Syd Muto October 14, 08 02:47 PM
  1. Considering how clutch he has been in the past (past being the key word here), it would be hard to sit Big Papi, but I think Francona has to consider it. The bat speed just isn't there right now, and it is obvious that he is really struggling. The Sox can't have a guy hitting third right now who is essentially making an out every time up. Clearly if he goes 0 for 4 again tonight, the decision has to be made to sit him.

    Posted by Bob Wheeler October 14, 08 02:49 PM
  1. I would drop Ortiz in the lineup. Move Youk to 3rd, Bay to 4th, Ortiz 5th

    Posted by Xavier October 14, 08 02:51 PM
  1. I'll be glad to see Cash come to the plate. The last 100 or so at-bats with Jason have just been painful.

    He's still a great catcher, yes, but we need offense!

    Posted by TriSec October 14, 08 02:55 PM
  1. I vote for:

    Kotsay (1B)
    Pedroia (2B)
    Ortiz (DH)
    Youkilis (3B)
    Drew (RF)
    Bay (LF)
    Lowrie (SS)
    Cash (C)
    Ellsbury (CF)

    I like the idea of two lead off hitters and the lowest batting average being eighth so the opposing pitcher has less of a chance to relax at the bottom of the order because it really turns over at nine and then Pedroia can have the opportunity to drive two runs it with his doubles.

    Posted by Kate October 14, 08 03:05 PM
  1. Didn't Kotsay have a couple of hits last night ???? Casey isn't who he used to be ...not a close call on that one. But my concern is Ortiz. Don't think it's the wrist. Bat speed is down. May be over for him as top star player. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think so. Sox should think of seriously bidding on Teixiera. Hope the Big Man comes through....don't see it. Should be batting 6th right now. He isn't right at this time.

    Posted by bill October 14, 08 03:15 PM
  1. King B:

    Agree it's time to shake up the line-up, but Ortiz's lack of production is hurting us just as much if not more than Ellsbury's. I'd have Kotsay stay at first. He has been hitting, and I'd put him in the now 6th slot. I'd DH Casey and have him batting 7th with Lowrie and Cash at 8 and 9. And, of course, Ortiz as a pinch-hitter.

    Posted by Joe C October 14, 08 03:17 PM
  1. Why stretch for something positive to come from this..."There is a kernel of truth in those extremes, but the Red Sox – down 2-1 heading into tonight’s Game 4 – understand acutely that a seven-game series is not lost in the first three games. One of them understands acutely that a seven-game series is not won in the first three games, either." The Rays are simply a better team then the Red Sox....are now and have been all season....we are not the force we were last year at the plate...our horse has clearly not been himself all year....this isn't something that just happened this series. Rays should beat us ...if we are fortunate enough to win the series I would still tip my hat to the Rays.

    Posted by Tim D October 14, 08 03:37 PM
  1. GO RAYS GO! GO RAYS GO! GO RAYS GO!

    Posted by JS October 14, 08 03:44 PM
  1. Why are my comments never posted here? I submit them and I guess they get discarded!
    anyways.... move Bay into the 3 whole to protect him from striking out.... he see's better pitches and we all know what he can do with those. Ortiz in the 4 whole (much like Manny use to protect him) and Youk in the 5 whole, where he prefers to hit!

    Posted by newt October 14, 08 03:52 PM
  1. I think that's about enough of the lineup changes. Forgive me but I still remember Bellhorn doing nothing but Tito keeping in the "guys who got you there". And that turned out pretty well for the Sox. The lineup's just fine...it comes down to guys hitting and guys pitching..period!

    Posted by Dave October 14, 08 03:58 PM
  1. I voted like that
    1.Crisp (CF)
    2. Pedroia (2B)
    3. Casey (DH)
    4. Youkilis (3B)
    5. Bay (LF)
    6. Drew (RF)
    7. Lowrie (SS)
    8. Korsay (1B)
    9. Cash (C)
    I

    Posted by jlcrespo October 14, 08 04:01 PM
  1. I voted like that
    I am dominican, but I think Francona must sit Ortiz.
    Ortiz is very bad at bat, it's time to sit.

    Posted by jlcrespo October 14, 08 04:03 PM
  1. I read this blog all the time. I have to say that reading today has been very interesting. C'Mon guys, Ortiz is one of the best clutch hitters of all-time in the post-season...we can't sit him tonight based on that alone. Maybe if he goes 0'fer tonight, then we consider. Being down 2-1 isn't the end of the world. We have to hang in there Sox fans - Fenway has to be loud and behind the team tonight - let's not start actin like Yankees fans and say - whoa is me and my team can't come through - YOU HAVE TO JUST BELIEVE AND KEEP THE FAITH! LET'S GO RED SOX! LET'S GO RED SOX! Ellsbury is pressing WAY too much. He is much more value to us coming off the bench to pinch -run and such - We can use Crisp's speed and defense very similarly. I think Kotsay has been playing well, both offensively and defensively and I would like the lineup to look a little like this:

    RF - JD Drew
    2B - Dustin Pedroia
    DH - David Ortiz
    3B - Kevin Youkilis
    LF - Jason Bay
    1B - Mark Kotsay
    SS - Jed Lowrie
    C - Kevin Cash
    CF - Coco Crisp

    Posted by Brian M October 14, 08 04:21 PM
  1. red sox will win game 4 and win the series wake up guys tampa bay is boring team

    Posted by burt b. October 14, 08 04:35 PM
  1. red sox will win game 4 and win the series wake up guys tampa bay is boring team

    Posted by burt b. October 14, 08 04:35 PM
  1. All of those who recommend benching Big Papi or moving him down in the order should have their collective heads examined. I didn't sense this much panic when the Sox were down 0-3 to the Yankees in '04. Red Sox Nation needs to get grip and Fenway needs to come alive. The Rays played over their heads last night and caught a few early pitching mistakes. Mark my words, David Ortiz is going to take control of this series.

    Posted by Grape Ape October 14, 08 04:54 PM
  1. Jacoby, you've been great, someday you'll be even greater, but right now you wouldn't win a wiffle-ball game in my backyard. Papi, sorry, you're not tuned in right now. It's pedal to the metal time folks. Go with the hot hands. I say give Casey a shot at DH (omigod, did I say bench Papi..........will some evil Red Sox spirit come and suck the life out of me............

    Posted by Waiting in Worcester October 14, 08 05:14 PM
  1. Grape Ape - you're thinking of Ortiz from 3 years ago when he was juiced. Now, we are seeing who he truly is as a player -- a guy who can't field, run or hit. Yes, he was great IN THE PAST, but it's obvious that the chemicals no longer flow though his veins.
    Face it: The Sox are cooked!!!

    Posted by bbbb October 14, 08 10:28 PM
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